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2019 NFL First Round Mock and Dolphins 7-Round Mock

Travis Wingfield

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32 First Round Pick Projections and 9 Dolphins Pick Projections

My final mock of the 2019 draft season is also my first — at least when it comes to picks 1-32. Pumping out multiple 32-team simulations feels like an exercise in redundancy.

Team-oriented mocks, however, help the fan base become familiar with the particular positions that will offer the most value with each pick – hence the multiple seven-round mocks I have personally divulged on the podcast for the better part of the last three months.

This entry will satisfy both aspects of the mock season. In order to best gage the available talent at picks 48 and 78, I felt it necessary to run through the first 77 picks, pick-by-pick.

Should you choose to do the same, you’ll come across the same realization that hit me near the end of round-one — the board is quickly picked clean.

Without any further hesitation, let’s get to the official Locked On Dolphins NFL Mock Draft 1.0.

1. Arizona Cardinals – QB Kyler Murray – Oklahoma

The decision to hire Kliff Kingsbury leaves little to the imagination for this year’s top pick. A no-brainer, the Cardinals inject the best play-making quarterback to enter the league since Michael Vick into an offense that was previously lifeless.

2. San Francisco 49ers – DE Nick Bosa – Ohio State

The best player on many-a-draft-boards, Bosa fits both BPA and needs-drafting philosophies at this pick. John Lynch needs to start getting his drafts right if he is to retain his job and this is an excellent first step in securing his standing in the Bay Area.

3. New York Jets – DT Quinnen Williams – Alabama

The casual Jets fan will be disgruntled by another interior defensive lineman, but the knowledgeable Jets fan will recognize that their team just secured one of the three elite talents in the class. Williams was mostly unblockable at Alabama and could help recharge the career of Leonard Williams.

4. Oakland Raiders – DE Josh Allen – Kentucky

Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden get the apple of their collective eye with college football’s most productive pass rusher in 2018 falling to the fourth pick. Allen starts on the edge from the work go in Oakland.

5. *TRADE* Cincinnati Bengals (from TB) – QB Dwayne Haskins – Ohio State

Keeping Haskins in-state, Zac Taylor attaches his job to a cerebral, 21-year-old quarterback with plenty of room to grow. Paying a second-round pick to go up and get Haskins, to groom behind Andy Dalton (at least for a few games), is a small price to pay for a potential franchise signal-caller.

6. New York Giants – DT Ed Oliver – Houston

New York stays true to Dave Gettleman’s philosophy of focusing on trenches. This time, Gettleman gets it right with the rare specimen that is Ed Oliver. Oliver can play, quite literally, any position on the defensive line while offering pass rush and run-stopping prowess.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars – TE T.J. Hockenson – Iowa

Doubling down on the ground-and-pound mentality that brought Jacksonville to the doorstep of the Super Bowl two years ago, Doug Marrone gets a multi-faceted player with an extremely high floor. Hockenson functions in both aspects of the offensive game plan and helps ease the transition for new Quarterback Nick Foles.

8. Detroit Lions – DE Brian Burns – Florida State

Looking to replace the production lost via Ezekiel Ansah and Eli Harold, Matt Patricia bookends his newest toy (Trey Flowers) with an athletic marvel in Burns. Burns’ first step, and ability to turn the corner, could lead to terrific sack production at the next level.

9. Buffalo Bills – OT Jawaan Taylor – Florida

After giving Josh Allen a track team at the skill spots, it’s time for GM Brandon Beane to protect his franchise quarterback. Mitch Morse solidified the interior while Jawaan Taylor is a plug-and-play starter at right tackle — currently a massive void on Buffalo’s roster.

10. Denver Broncos – QB Drew Lock – Missouri

John Elway can talk about Joe Flacco entering his prime (LOL) all he wants, but if Elway enters the year without a contingency plan, it’s difficult to see him returning in 2020. Reports have linked Elway to Lock for months and it finally comes to fruition with the 10th pick.

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – LB Devin White – LSU

Acquiring more draft capital and landing the top linebacker in the draft is a homerun for Bruce Arians and company. White is a three-down linebacker with an infectious attitude that can replace the production and leadership vacated by Kwon Alexander’s departure.

12. Green Bay Packers – OT Jonah Williams – Alabama

The best tackle, on tape, in college football last year, Williams’ long-term projection is to take over outside in Green Bay. He can start at guard immediately and gives the Pack a contingency plan behind Right Tackle Bryan Bulaga, who has missed games all but two years of his nine-year career.

13. *TRADE* New York Giants (from MIA) – QB Daniel Jones – Duke

Without a Josh Rosen deal done, Gettleman phones up Miami with an offer to get ahead of Washington to get the successor to Eli Manning. The Giants are loaded with mid-round draft picks and decide to send the 96th and 133rd picks to Miami to secure the QB position.

14. Atlanta Falcons – OC Garrett Bradbury – NC State

Thought by many as the best lineman in this class, Atlanta gets some much needed interior help. Alex Mack is 33, but Bradbury can play guard before transitioning into the Falcons’ long-term center.

15. Washington – WR D.K. Metcalf – Ole Miss

With the board developing in this fashion GM Bruce Allen will likely work the phones to see about Josh Rosen, so why not give him the top WR on the board? Metcalf is a difficult cover, despite some stiffness, and provides a shot in the arm for a wanting Washington passing offense.

16. Carolina Panthers – OT Dalton Risner – Kansas State

Carolina has done a poor job of protecting Cam Newton recently, and with the emphasis on the ground-game, a nasty mauler in the mold of Risner makes a lot of sense. He can play Right Tackle and Center giving the Panthers options.

17. *TRADE* Houston Texans (from MIA) – OL Cody Ford – Oklahoma

After Miami’s first trade, the board broke perfectly. With two more offensive linemen coming off the board Houston’s urgency to get Deshaun Watson some help grew tenfold. Ford is, far-and-away, the best OL prospect on the board and Miami scoops up another third-round pick to slide back six spots satisfying the team’s desire to acquire multiple additional picks.

18. Minnesota Vikings – OT Andre Dillard – Washington State

The run of the offensive line made for a near nightmare scenario for the Vikings, as Dillard is the last remaining lineman with a potential top-20 grade left on the board. Minnesota has two starting tackles in-house, but could certainly use an upgrade over Brian O’Neill.

19. Tennessee Titans – DT Christian Wilkins – Clemson

Jurrell Casey has been the entirety of Tennessee’s interior pressure for far too long. The Titans pluck a terrific football player, a better human being, and a real pain in the ass to deal with on third downs in Wilkins.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – LB Devin Bush – Michigan

It’s tremendous to see the growth Ryan Shazier has made in his recovery from a devastating spine injury, but the Pittsburgh defense has never been the same since he went down — enter Devin Bush. Bush is the three-down thumper the Black and Gold desperately needs.

21. Seattle Seahawks – S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson – Florida

Seattle needs better safety play after losing two legendary members of their famed Legion of Boom (Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas) the last two years. CGJ is an immediate 100% snap-taker who can play single-high or come down and cover the slot.

22. *TRADE* Green Bay Packers (from BAL) – TE Noah Fant – Iowa

The Jimmy Graham experiment went awry quickly and Aaron Rodgers needs another weapon in the middle of the field. After splurging on defense in free agency, Green Bay spends its two first-rounders on supporting its all-time great quarterback.

23. Miami Dolphins – DE Chase Winovich – Michigan

Double majoring in preparation and production, Winovich has vaulted up draft boards throughout the process. His combine workout was elite, his interview skills were reportedly terrific, he’s sharp on the white board and he can play both the run and the pass. Winovich checks every box that the Dolphins want in a player.

24. Oakland Raiders – WR Hakeem Butler – Iowa State

Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams are an excellent start to reshaping the passing targets Derek Carr has at his disposal, but adding a power forward to the group is too attractive to pass up. Butler plays the game above the rim and can help the Raiders red zone woes.

25. Philadelphia Eagles – S Nasir Adderley – Delaware

Philadelphia adds another versatile safety in Adderley. His range, cover-skills, and return ability make him a viable option to get onto the field as a rookie before eventually taking the reins for an aging group.

26. Indianapolis Colts – DE Rashan Gary – Michigan

Each draft has a story about a player falling, and this year that distinction belongs to Mr. Gary. His production never matched the traits, but GM Chris Ballard knows value when he sees it. The Colts dramatic shift from a finesse team, into a bully, continues with another solid addition to the trenches.

27. Oakland Raiders – CB Byron Murphy – Washington

The cornerback slide ends with Oakland going to the BPA strategy. The Raiders have some nice corners in-house, none of which can match Murphy’s versatility across schemes or rare instincts for the position.

28. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Dexter Lawrence – Clemson

The nimble, 340-pound Lawrence is an oxymoron by every sense of the word. He’s immovable against the run and will occasionally offer interior pressure. Lawrence could stand to drop 10 pounds and really capitalize on the rare power-quickness combination he already presents.

29. Kansas City Chiefs – CB Greedy Williams – LSU

The cornerback run starts now with Kansas City looking to supplement a pass defense that never recovered from the loss of Marcus Peters. Play makers that can help get the ball back to Patrick Mahomes are a point of emphasis in this KC defense.

30. Baltimore Ravens – DL Jeffery Simmons – Mississippi State

A gamble by Eric DeCosta, Simmons is a top-five talent that stumbles down the board because of a recent ACL tear. The numbers aren’t great on players recovering from injuries that rob them of their rookie campaigns, but the last player with Simmons’ upside to experience something similar is Dallas’ star linebacker, Jaylon Smith.

31. Los Angeles Rams – OC Erik McCoy – Texas A&M

McCoy climbs up boards the more folks plug in his tape – he’s really, really good. The Rams need interior line help and can utilize McCoy’s versatility to double down on their complex running scheme and screen game.

32. New England Patriots – DE Clelin Ferrell – Clemson

Like Rashan Gary, Ferrell takes a tumble down the board because of the premier defensive line talent ahead of them. Ferrell’s slide is the Patriots gain as Bill Belichick pounces on a good looking prospect at a position of need.

 

That brings us to the rest of Miami’s draft. I forecasted one more trade for the Dolphins, this time coming up the board in the second round. With the offensive line talent flying off the board, Chris Grier finds it paramount to move up to secure a plug-and-play Guard at the top of round-two.

Dolphins Trades
Acquired picks 17, 96, 133 in exchange for pick 13 with New York Giants (Daniel Jones)
Acquired picks 23, 87 in exchange for pick 17 with Houston Texans (Cody Ford)
Acquired pick 36 in exchange for picks 48 and 96 with San Francisco 49ers (Chris Lindstrom)

 

Round (Pick) Position Player School
1 (23) DE Chase Winovich Michigan
2 (36) G Chris Lindstrom Boston College
3 (78) S Darnell Savage Maryland
3 (87) DT Trysten Hill UCF
4 (117) OLB Justin Hollins Oregon
4 (133) C Lamont Gaillard Georgia
5 (152) RB James Williams Washington State
7 (235) CB Derek Baity Kentucky
7 (236 WR Penny Hart Georgia State

 

This is the framework of an ideal mock draft for Miami. Adding two more picks and hammering out a BPA strategy, while checking off the list of needs, this group of players adheres to the requirements filed by the new Dolphins brain trust.

Let’s go pick-by-pick and explain these selections.

1. (23) DE Chase Winovich – Michigan

A high-motor pass rusher with an obsession for preparation, Winovich falls into a similar bucket as Minkah Fitzpatrick did a year ago. He out produced the more physically gifted Rashan Gary at Michigan, and topped off his impressive final collegiate season with a near-perfect run up to the draft. Some might assume this is too high for Winovich, but he’s not going to be around when Miami picks again in round-two.

The Plan: With minimum development needed in his game, Winovich steps in as an immediate contributor. Miami’s multiple front scheme will balance Winovich across multiple roles including the 7-tech, 5-tech, and the occasional two-point on-ball edge linebacker role.

2. (36) OG Chris Lindstrom – Boston College

After picking up three additional picks via the two round-one trade backs, the Dolphins saw the decade-long solution at left guard starring back at them at pick 36. San Francisco was open for business needing more draft capital of their own.

There’s a theme with these players regarding their love of the game and Lindstrom falls right in line. He’s a mauler, a technician, and a leader. Lindstrom might go off the board earlier than this and he’s a legitimate option in the first if Miami are inclined to trade down. The Dolphins have spent a lot of time with Lindstrom during the process.

The Plan: Starting 47 games at BC, almost exclusively at right guard, Miami’s lone 16-game participant happens to be the RG incumbent, Jesse Davis. Lindstorm is a better player, however, and allows Miami to kick Davis out to right tackle removing Zach Sterup from the starting line-up.

3. (78) S Darnell Savage – Maryland

An alpha leader of the Maryland defense, Savage is the type of presence that’s impossible to ignore in a shared room. He has the explosiveness to showcase more range than we saw at Maryland, but he’s at his best when he can drive out of his zone position, lay the wood, and rob underneath and crossing routes. He slots right in as the long-term replacement for Reshad Jones.

The Plan: If Reshad Jones is in fact immovable, Savage is afforded a year to get his feet wet. Minkah Fitzpatrick and Jones will play the base downs but Brian Flores is a big believer in three-safety packages (60% of the time last year) making Savage a primary defensive player early. Once Jones is gone, Savage will fill that role patrolling the hook-zone, robber role, and playing near the line-of-scrimmage.

3. (87) DT Trysten Hill – UCF

Strangely only starting one game last year under a new coaching staff, Hill’s tape is eye-catching — just as his combine workout was in March. He’s an interior pocket collapser with tremendous quickness, but he needs to refine his hand placement and technique – a project well within Marion Hobby’s wheelhouse.

The Plan: Coming off the bench initially as a sub package interior rusher, Hill’s technical refinement won’t be a concern in year-one — his only job will be to go get the quarterback. By 2020 Miami could realistically roll out a front line of Taylor, Godchaux and Hill.

4. (117) OLB Justin Hollins – Oregon

Miami is pretty well set at two linebacker positions, but Hollins gives them the inside-outside option they presently lack. Hollins is twitchy as all get out and could get even better with his length. He will need some development before he’s ready to play, but he provides Miami with a potential replacement for Kiko Alonso in 2020.

The Plan: Slotting in as the fourth linebacker initially, Hollins will use his rookie season to develop some nuance as an edge rusher. With his length and explosiveness, Hollins is a prime candidate to become a staple of the linebacker unit, but he needs to improve his functional strength and contact balance.

4. (133) OC Lamont Gaillard – Georgia

Gaillard’s draft projections are all over the place, so I stuck him smack dab in the middle of Miami’s class. He has the power to anchor against stout interior rushers, and enough athleticism to get out in space and up to the second level. Gaillard is the perfect competition for Daniel Kilgore.

The Plan: Miami have expressed their interest in letting someone compete with Kilgore (under contract for another season). Gaillard is power player who could use some seasoning and a year under Pat Flaherty’s tutelage — he serves as the primary backup center during his rookie season.

5. (152) RB James Williams – Washington State

Comfortably in this position for months, Williams was one of college football’s best pass catching backs in 2018. He can run the full running back route tree and is elusive in open space in the screen game.

The Plan: An immediate impact player on special teams, Williams will play the Rex Burkhead role on offense contributing with roughly 20% of the offensive snaps, primarily as a pass catcher. If Kenyan Drake is not brought back (expiring contract), Williams will see his role expand extensively in 2020.

7. (235) CB Derek Baity – Kentucky

Baity plays much larger than his frame and has the technique refinement that could eventually get him on the field on defense. It’s his desire and will to lay the wood, and exceptional tackling technique, that makes him a core special teamer as soon as his rookie season.

The Plan: Sure-tacklers always have a role on special teams. In the 7th round, if that’s all Baity ever becomes, the Dolphins will gladly except that ROI.

7. (236) WR Penny Hart – Georgia State

Hart’s Senior Bowl was impressive but his workouts, thereafter, were not. This might be a tad low, but his poor offseason puts Miami in a position to find a developmental slot receiver with game-breaking ability both on offense and in the return game.

The Plan: Potentially beginning his career on the practice squad, Hart’s primary value is at the return position, though that job is held by the dynamic Jakeem Grant. Hart provides early insurance behind Grant and Albert Wilson on the WR depth chart as both return from an injury.

Alternatively, here is a mock draft free of trades.

 

Round (Pick) Position Player School
1 (13) DT Christian Wilkins Clemson
2 (48) S Juan Thornhill Virginia
3 (78) OT Chuma Edoga USC
4 (117) OLB Justin Hollins Oregon
5 (152) S Mike Edwards Kentucky
7 (235) CB Derek Baity Kentucky
7 (236 WR Penny Hart Georgia State

 

With the multiple pathways (many needs) Miami can travel, a satisfying class almost doesn’t exist without acquiring more picks. With the two extra picks in the first mock, I feel confident in my ability to add reinforcements to the position rooms that need it most.

The focus, for both drafts, prioritized character, athletic traits, and defined roles within the program. Adding Wilkins to the Davon Godchaux and Vincent Taylor rotation essentially solidifies my interior defensive line. Wilkins can provide an interior rush the moment he arrives in Davie, FL.

Thornhill is the day-one center field safety (think Duron Harmon (61% of New England’s snaps last year)), while Edoga competes for the opening day right tackle job.

Hollins fits the same description from the original mock while Mike Edwards plays on special teams in year-one with the hopes of taking over Reshad Jones’ position in 2020.

Derek Baity and Penny Hart fit the bill for the three, aforementioned focal points.

A reminder that Locked On Dolphins will have the quickest, most comprehensive Dolphins draft coverage anywhere on the web next weekend.

Here, you can find the draft profiles we did last year. Film study, quotes from teammates and coaches, athletic measurements, scheme fit, projected role; everything about these players will be detailed on Locked On Dolphins dot com — as well as the Locked On Dolphins podcast.

@WingfieldNFL

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3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Thomas

    April 21, 2019 at 8:03 pm

    There is no way Miami drafts 2 safeties. They may not even draft 1.

  2. Avatar

    Thomas MacDonald

    April 21, 2019 at 8:04 pm

    There is no way Miami drafts 2 safeties. They may not even draft 1.

  3. Avatar

    Mike Zwilling

    April 23, 2019 at 6:43 am

    Dude get a new job.. Pass on elite talent for garbage

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Miami Dolphins

Josh Rosen 2018 Passing Chart – Week 17 at Seattle

Travis Wingfield

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on

Football, more so than any other sport, requires context to tell the full story. Box scores provide the casual fan with a general idea of the cumulative result of any given game, but without isolating each player’s performance, many details go unnoticed.

This project is entirely based around isolating the play of Josh Rosen. Traditional data points will tell you that his rookie season was one of the worst in the history of the league. Watching each drop back multiple times over, breaking down the most impactful plays, and charting the data that tells the true story, this is the 2018 Josh Rosen charting project.

Jump To:

Week 4 vs. Seattle
Week 5 at San Francisco
Week 6 at Minnesota
Week 7 vs. Denver
Week 8 vs. San Francisco
Week 10 at Kansas City
Week 11 vs. Oakland
Week 12 at LA Chargers
Week 13 at Green Bay
Week 14 vs. Detroit
Week 15 at Atlanta
Week 16 vs. LA Rams
Week 17 at Seattle

Week 17 at Seattle –

By the time this season finale came to an end the entire Cardinals operation had to breathe a sigh of relief. A disaster season, that came to a crashing conclusion, was finally in the rearview. For Josh Rosen, the last month of the season was a recurring nightmare. Rosen threw 146 passes in December and the only one that crossed pay dirt was a busted coverage in this Seattle game.

Some of Rosen’s strong suits didn’t travel to the Pacific Northwest. Throwing into contested windows, play-action passing, and third down conversions each brought back less than satisfactory returns.

The Cardinal passing offense converted 3-of-14 3rd downs. Rosen was 2-of-14 for 23 yards on contested throws and 5-of-10 for 56 yards on play pass.

Rosen was chucking-and-praying once again. The average air yards per throw tallied 10.8 yards, while the Arizona receivers only amassed 51 yards after the catch (34.2% of Rosen’s passing total).

The short passing game was far more fruitful than the vertical attacks.

 

Portion of the Field Accurate Pass/Number of Passes
20+ yards 0/3 (0%)
11-19 yards 0/3 (0%)
0-10 yards (or behind LOS) 11/16 (68.8%)

 

The game was littered with mistakes from the Cardinals QB. Rosen registered 14 mistakes (11 from accuracy, 2 ball security issues, and 1 poor read). Rosen lost two fumbles and had two would-be interceptions dropped by the Seattle defense.

The personnel deployment featured more versatility than recent weeks. Rosen’s passes were supplemented by the following personnel packages.

 

11-personnel 31 snaps
12-personnel 3 snaps
21-personnel 4 snaps

 

As has been the case all season, Rosen was under frequent pressure. Seattle arrived for 11 pressures (6 sacks, 3 hits, 2 hurries) at an average time from snap-to-pressure of 2.19 seconds.

The busted coverage touchdown was Rosen’s one red-zone completion (1-of-3). He was in the gun for 25 snaps and under-center for 13.

Another week, another low conversion rate. The Cardinal passing game converted 8-of-38 plays into first downs (21.1%)

It’s difficult to imagine a more trying rookie season than the one Rosen experienced. The offensive line play was poor, the only consistent pass catcher was Larry Fitzgerald, and Rosen had his own share of rookie mistakes to compound things.

This game goes into the losing performance category marking eight consecutive games that Rosen failed to reach the winning performance category.

 

2018 Performance Results Number of Games
Winning Performance 2 (SEA, SF)
Inconsequential Performance 3 (@MIN, @LAC, @ATL)
Losing Performance 7 (@SF, DEN, @KC, OAK, @GB, DET, LAR, @SEA)

Winning Performance – The QB played well enough to garner a victory. He limited mistakes and made plays in crucial situations.
Inconsequential Performance – More of a game-managing role, the QB didn’t have the big plays, but mistakes were limited.
Losing Performance – The QB limited his team’s ability to win the game with his performance.

@WingfieldNFL

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Miami Dolphins

Josh Rosen 2018 Passing Chart – Week 16 vs. LA Rams

Travis Wingfield

Published

on

Football, more so than any other sport, requires context to tell the full story. Box scores provide the casual fan with a general idea of the cumulative result of any given game, but without isolating each player’s performance, many details go unnoticed.

This project is entirely based around isolating the play of Josh Rosen. Traditional data points will tell you that his rookie season was one of the worst in the history of the league. Watching each drop back multiple times over, breaking down the most impactful plays, and charting the data that tells the true story, this is the 2018 Josh Rosen charting project.

Jump To:

Week 4 vs. Seattle
Week 5 at San Francisco
Week 6 at Minnesota
Week 7 vs. Denver
Week 8 vs. San Francisco
Week 10 at Kansas City
Week 11 vs. Oakland
Week 12 at LA Chargers
Week 13 at Green Bay
Week 14 vs. Detroit
Week 15 at Atlanta
Week 16 vs. LA Rams
Week 17 at Seattle

 

Week 16 vs. LA Rams –

For the second consecutive game Josh Rosen didn’t finish under-center for the Cardinals. In a blowout loss, where it seemed like the entire game plan revolved around making life easy on Josh Rosen, Arizona still managed to get ran out of the building. Mike Glennon completed the final series for the Red Birds offense.

Rosen threw the ball only 23 times, but scrambled more than he has all season. The game plan also featured the least amount of variety, from a personnel grouping standpoint, all season.

 

11-personnel 30 snaps
12-personnel 1 snap

 

Rosen’s typical third down heroics didn’t show up. The Cardinals converted only 2-of-10 third downs in the passing game (one a QB scramble). Converting, as it has been all season, was a challenge in general — Arizona converted just 6-of-31 drop backs (19.4%).

Rosen was in the shotgun almost exclusively (3 under-center, 28 in the gun). This led to a limited play-action passing game (only one throw from play pass).

The four mistakes attributed to Rosen were largely deep shots. He missed on short pass, but two of the three inaccuracies came on balls down the field. One of those deep shots was an ill-advised throw into coverage despite a wide open Larry Fitzgerald coming across the formation (seen in the video thread).

Rosen’s depth splits were as follows:

 

Portion of the Field Accurate Pass/Number of Passes
20+ yards 0/3 (0%)
11-19 yards 0/3 (0%)
0-10 yards (or behind LOS) 11/16 (68.8%)

 

More than half of Rosen’s 87 passing yards came from YAC (54%). The average depth of Rosen’s passes was 9.22 air yards per throw.

Throwing into tight window was a futile effort. Rosen completed 1-of-7 contested throws for 7 yards. Pressure was a regular fixture, yet again, as Rosen was under duress on 11 drop backs (4 sacks, 5 hits, 2 hurries). The average time from snap-to-pressure was 2.30 seconds.

The war of attrition seems to have finally broken the Cardinals spirit. The team’s execution was lacking all year, but this game was something of a “white flag” effort from the coaching staff. Rosen gets tabbed with a losing performance for a lack of big-time plays, a few mistakes, and an awful holistic result.

 

2018 Performance Results Number of Games
Winning Performance 2 (SEA, SF)
Inconsequential Performance 3 (@MIN, @LAC, @ATL)
Losing Performance 6 (@SF, DEN, @KC, OAK, @GB, DET, LAR)

Winning Performance – The QB played well enough to garner a victory. He limited mistakes and made plays in crucial situations.
Inconsequential Performance – More of a game-managing role, the QB didn’t have the big plays, but mistakes were limited.
Losing Performance – The QB limited his team’s ability to win the game with his performance.

@WingfieldNFL

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Miami Dolphins

Josh Rosen 2018 Passing Chart – Week 15 at Atlanta

Travis Wingfield

Published

on

Football, more so than any other sport, requires context to tell the full story. Box scores provide the casual fan with a general idea of the cumulative result of any given game, but without isolating each player’s performance, many details go unnoticed.

This project is entirely based around isolating the play of Josh Rosen. Traditional data points will tell you that his rookie season was one of the worst in the history of the league. Watching each drop back multiple times over, breaking down the most impactful plays, and charting the data that tells the true story, this is the 2018 Josh Rosen charting project.

Jump To:

Week 4 vs. Seattle
Week 5 at San Francisco
Week 6 at Minnesota
Week 7 vs. Denver
Week 8 vs. San Francisco
Week 10 at Kansas City
Week 11 vs. Oakland
Week 12 at LA Chargers
Week 13 at Green Bay
Week 14 vs. Detroit
Week 15 at Atlanta
Week 16 vs. LA Rams
Week 17 at Seattle

 

Week 15 at Atlanta –

We’ve reached the point in the season where the Cardinals coaching staff had to make a switch to prevent further damaging their 21-year-old quarterback. Josh Rosen, under duress all game, with very little help from the route concepts and plan to attack the Atlanta defense, was pulled for Mike Glennon in the fourth quarter.

The Falcons pass rush would’ve crippled the most grizzled veteran in the NFL; it completely debilitated Rosen. The Cardinal QB was under pressure 15-of-27 drop backs (6 sacks, 6 hits, 3 hurries) with an average snap-to-pressure time of 2.17 seconds.

Atlanta’s unrelenting pressure led to a season-low in average air yards per attempt (4.6 AYPT). The Arizona receivers picked up 82 yards after the catch counting for 62.1% of Rosen’s passing total.

Once again, a lopsided scoreboard forced Arizona into very little variety from a personnel grouping standpoint. Rosen was 4-of-5 with 37 yards on non-11-personnel calls. The issue there — Arizona was always in 11-personnell.

 

11-personnel 22 snaps
12-personnel 4 snaps
21-personnel 1 snap

 

Rosen only committed two mistakes in the game (one accuracy, one a poor decision). The biggest mistake was an example of nervous antics in the pocket and a decision Rosen would prefer to have back (available in the Twitter thread).

Rosen was under-center just 5 times (gun 22), and only threw from play action three times; Rosen was 2-of-3 with 13 yards on play pass.

The Arizona offense converted only 18.5% (5-of-27) passing plays into first downs. Throwing into contested windows was a 50-50 proposition — Rosen threw for 68 yards on 4-of-8 passing into tight windows.

Rosen’s depth splits were as follows:

 

Portion of the Field Accurate Pass/Number of Passes
20+ yards 1/1 (100%)
11-19 yards 2/3 (66.7%)
0-10 yards (or behind LOS) 12/15 (80%)

 

It was a miserable day for the Cardinals all the way around. Rosen never stood much of a chance to make a big time paly, or to make a game-changing mistake — but the one time he did make a crucial mistake, the game was already out of reach. This showing goes in the inconsequential column.

 

2018 Performance Results Number of Games
Winning Performance 2 (SEA, SF)
Inconsequential Performance 3 (@MIN, @LAC, @ATL)
Losing Performance 5 (@SF, DEN, @KC, OAK, @GB, DET)

Winning Performance – The QB played well enough to garner a victory. He limited mistakes and made plays in crucial situations.
Inconsequential Performance – More of a game-managing role, the QB didn’t have the big plays, but mistakes were limited.
Losing Performance – The QB limited his team’s ability to win the game with his performance.

@WingfieldNFL

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