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Miami Dolphins

Charting Ryan Tannehill Week 11 2016

Travis Wingfield

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On the way to his worst showing of the season, Ryan Tannehill resurrected a lifeless offense for a pair of late touchdowns to capture a victory.

Drive NumberPlayQuarterDownDistancePersonnelFormationBound/FieldResultThrow LocalDirectionPressurePres TimeContestedRouteTargetAir YardsYACPlay ActionGun/UCFD/TD
111st1st10113x1BoundaryCompletionOn targetLeftFlat underSims-110YesGun
121st2nd11112x2BoundaryCompletionOn targetMiddleDragStills53Gun
131st3rd3113x1BoundaryDropOn targetRightHurry1.85WheelWilliams16Gun
241st3rd5113x2BoundaryCompletionOn targetMiddleHurry1.41SlantLandry40Gun
251st2nd10113x1BoundaryCompletionOn targetMiddleSlantParker120YesU/CFirst Down
261st2nd19113x1BoundaryCompletionOn targetMiddleScreenAjayi-31Gun
271st3rd21123x2FieldCompletionOn targetMiddleHit1.11ScreenLandry-30Gun
382nd2nd8113x1FieldCompletionOn targetLeftScreenStills-25Gun
392nd3rd5112x2Sack1.76Gun
4102nd1st10112x2FieldCompletionOn targetMiddleSlantParker64YesGunFirst Down
4112nd2nd8133x19 yard runHurry2.03GunFirst Down
4122nd2nd11133x1FieldPBUUnderthrowRightComebackStills14YesU/C
4132nd3rd11113x1FieldPBUHit as threwMiddleHit1.98ParkerDig15Gun
5142nd1st10112x2BoundaryCompletionOn targetMiddleSpeed outSims40Gun
5152nd2nd6112x2FieldCompletionOn targetMiddleHurry2.35YesOutSims70GunFirst Down
5162nd1st10112x2Sack2.53Gun
6173rd2nd12122x2BoundaryCompletionOn targetMiddleHit1.91Speed outGray50U/CFirst Down
6183rd3rd7113x1FieldOff targetOverthrowMiddleHurry2.48YesPostStills25Gun
7193rd1st10113x1BoundaryInterceptionWR errorLeftYesCornerParker37YesU/C
8203rd1st10123x110 yard runYesU/CFirst Down
8213rd2nd12113x1FieldPBUOn targetMiddleYesScreenStills2Gun
8223rd3rd12113x1FieldPBUOn targetLeftHit2.41YesBrokenParker34Gun
9233rd2nd10112x2Sack2.94Gun
9244th3rd13113x1FieldCompletionOn targetRightScreenParker01Gun
10254th1st10112x2BoundaryDropOn targetMiddleDigStills12YesGunFirst Down
10264th2nd10113x1BoundaryPBUBad readRightHit2.61YesOutSims13Gun
10274th3rd10113x1Sack2.71Gun
11284th1st10112x2BoundaryCompletionOn targetRightScreenStils-18YesGun
11294th2nd3113x1BoundaryPBULOS batMiddleArrowAjayi3Gun
11304th3rd3113x1FieldCompletionOn targetMiddleYesSlantLandry41GunFirst Down
11314th1st10113x1FieldCompletionOn targetLeftScreenLandry-214GunFirst Down
11324th1st10113x1BoundaryCompletionOn targetMiddleHitchParker132GunFirst Down
11334th1st10112x2BoundaryCompletionOn targetLeftOutParker111GunFirst Down
11344th1st10113x1BoundaryCompletionOn targetMiddleScreenAjayi-23Gun
11354th2nd9113x1FieldCompletionOn targetMiddleHitchLandry55GunTouchdown
12364th1st10113x1BoundaryCompletionOn targetMiddleHit2.46HitchStills150GunFirst Down
12374th2nd12113x1BoundaryCompletionOn targetMiddleHurry2.35YesHitchParker120YesGunFirst Down
12384th1st10112x2BoundaryCompletionOn targetRightHurry2.28YesOutParker90Gun
12394th1st10112x2BoundaryCompletionOn targetRightFlatAjayi35Gun
12404th2nd2113x2BoundaryCompletionOn targetRightHurry1.69YesOutParker90GunTouchdown

The Dolphins’ offense was over matched in this contest. Case-in-point on a series early in the fourth quarter where Kenny Stills dropped a pass, Tannehill made an ill-advised throw, and the offensive line collapsed. Three consecutive plays, three failures at different levels.

This was the story for the entire afternoon, until it wasn’t. Playing from a deficit from the work go, the Miami offense was predictable. 35 of the 40 Tannehill drop backs came from 11-personnel.

Pressure was as constant as it was sudden. On 18 occasions the Dolphin quarterback was under duress (four sacks, six hits and eight hurries). The average time from snap-to-pressure was 2.16 seconds – the shortest of the season.

Adjusting for one drop, Tannehill completed nine of 13 passes when under pressure.

Of the four passes that got away from Tannehill (30/34 adjusted accuracy rating), two easily could’ve been picked off. The one interception Tannehill did throw could be attributed to Devante Parker miss-timing his leap.

Third down was a nightmare for the Dolphins. On 10 opportunities, Miami moved the sticks just once. Of the 40 total drop backs, 15 resulted in first downs – a 38% rate.

The offense ran primarily through the shotgun. Just five plays came from under-center and only seven passes from play-action. Tannehill was an adjusted 6-for-7 on play-action with an interception (and one dropped pass).

Despite heavy pressure, Miami attacked down the field. Tannehill averaged 8.26 air-yards-per-throw and only 36.3% of his passing yards came after the catch.

Games like this are how great quarterbacks hide less-than-ideal performances. No matter how bad things get, no one will care if the conductor of the offense plays his best ball down the stretch.

I, however, do not subscribe to that concept. Tannehill played poorly for 54 minutes. If the Rams defense could’ve came up with one of two plays off Tannehill mistakes, the game would’ve been over before the comeback occurred.

Pressure altered his patience and caused him to force a couple of throws and get off of his spot early.

The last two drives did signal something of a change as the Dolphins went primarily to hitch and out-breaking routes. Tannehill was poised and accurate during this stretch – but we don’t give credit for one-twelfth of a good game.

Result: Detrimental performance by the QB
Next: Week 12 vs San Francisco 49ers
@WingfieldNFL

Go To:

Week 1 at Seattle
Week 2 at New England
Week 3 vs. Cleveland
Week 4 at Cincinnati
Week 5 vs. Tennessee
Week 6 vs. Pittsburgh
Week 7 vs. Buffalo
Week 9 vs. NY Jets
Week 10 at San Diego

 

Additional videos:

The game-winner.

Dropped pass on a well-floated wheel route.

Poor touch pass on a scree pass.

Throws a gift because of poor processing and heavy pressure, defense drops it.

Doesn’t account for the underneath defender peeling back.

Perfect location on a third and five to keep the game alive.

Goes through progressions and holds the middle of the field.

Moves off his spot and threads a near-impossible window.

Puts it in a spot where only his guy can get it.

 

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Miami Dolphins

Pillaging the Pats

Travis Wingfield

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Taking From the Rich and Giving to the Phins

De facto Patriots Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores is set to take over the big chair in Miami at the conclusion of New England’s 2018 season. Rumored to be coming with Flores are a pair of Pats staffers.

A master of delegation, Bill Belichick constantly maintains the smallest staff in the league. Flores’ intentions are to bring with him Pats’ Consultant Bret Bielema and Wide Receivers Coach Chad O’Shea.

*We’ll have a comprehensive breakdown of the offensive scheme that comes with O’Shea should this move push closer to official. And we’ll do so in the same capacity as the Defensive Crash Course piece.

If Flores is able to extract both Bielema and O’Shea, he’s plundering 16% of the 2018 Patriots’ staff (that includes Flores). Belichick’s coaching tree has yielded less than desirable results in their new destinations, but Flores is described as “different” from the rest.

By now Dolphins fans are tired of lip service. If Flores is the exception to the many before him, great – we’ll find out on Sundays. Flores is, however, off to a unique beginning compared to the lackluster rest.

 

Coach (Year Left New England) Additional Migrating Staffers
Charlies Weis (2005 – Notre Dame) 0
Romeo Crennel (2005 – Cleveland) 0
Eric Mangini (2007 – NY Jets) 0
Josh McDaniels (2009 – Denver) 0
Bill O’Brien (2012 – Penn State) 0
Matt Patricia (2018 – Detroit) 0

 

Goose eggs. I didn’t expect that when I began this study, hence the table. Interestingly, the greatest dearth in the Patriots run came between the 2008-2010 seasons. That sentence is a house of cards for two reasons:

1.) It’s sort of hilarious to call two playoff appearances and a combined record of 35-13 a dearth. Those three seasons were the last time New England weren’t participating in the Conference Championship – they’ve qualified for eight consecutive title games since.

2.) It’s something of a strawman to suggest New England’s 14-2 season was cut short at the divisional round because of a loss of coordinators. Not to mention the 2008 season that brought back 11 wins despite starting Matt Cassel for 15 games.

That three-year stretch did come after New England lost its offensive and defensive coordinators, and then Crennel’s replacement at DC (Mangini) two years later. No one is mistaking Flores, Bielema, and O’Shea for Weis, Crennel, and Mangini, but this would be a similar exodus – the difference being all at once opposed to three years.

It’s no secret that Belichick is a ruthless competitor that has no qualms about making enemies. The Patriots have blocked coaches from interviewing for outside positions in the past. Clearly, New England doesn’t block assistants from taking head coaching jobs, but the fact that zero staffers jumped ship might insinuate staffers are held hostage.

Maybe that’s where the idea that Flores is different from the rest comes from. His ability to separate himself from the Pats’ program. His intentions to implement his own initiative that doesn’t try to form as a carbon copy of Belichick’s well-oiled machine in Foxboro.

There are a million ways to splice this, but it all comes back to one conclusion: Brian Flores is beloved by everyone that knows him – even the heartless Hoodie.

@WingfieldNFL

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Miami Dolphins

Crash Course On 2019 Dolphins Defensive Scheme

Travis Wingfield

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For a publication based primarily on analysis, these last two weeks have been a bit of a drag for content. We know the potential names but, as they say, potential doesn’t play on Sundays. In this case, the reference refers to the rumors and names linked to various positions with the Dolphins – rumors, meaning anything but finalized.

Enter Patrick Graham.

It has been reported that Miami, under Head Coach to Be Named Brian Flores, will tag the former Green Bay Packers assistant as the Defensive Coordinator position with the Dolphins in 2019.

Graham, a former staffer alongside Flores in New England, spent the 2018 season coaching the linebackers on Mike Pettine’s defense.

Another name linked to the vacant DC job is Bret Bielema. The former Wisconsin and Arkansas Head Coach spent the 2018 season working hand-in-hand with Bill Belichick as a Consultant to the Head Coach.

And so, from this, we glean some potential defensive structures, schemes and principles that figure to be migrating south this winter along with Flores.

For Flores, Graham, and potentially Bielema, the task is tall. Redirect a unit that ranked 29th in points allowed each of the last two years under the inexperienced watch of Matt Burke.

We start first in New England. After all, Flores will be a master of delegation, but he knows this scheme as well as anyone. Few teams mix up their fronts with more frequency than the New England Patriots.

The prevailing theme among these slight variances of defensive schemes is the “Bear” front. A Bear front simply refers to six defenders up around the line of scrimmage. Two of those players are positioned in a linebacker technique while the other four are down linemen.

This variation of the Bear front is a 3-3 look using three down-linemen, two outside ‘backers shaded off the 9-technique alignment.

In this image provided by the Twitter account of James Light, we can see the variations from the nickel and dime packages (yes, Miami will FINALLY be running some dime defense in 2019).

The more traditional look aligns those six players in a 4-2 set.

Bret Bielema last coached (on the field) in 2017 at Arkansas, so he’s no stranger to the evolution of the college game and its integration into the NFL. There, Bielema’s defense was based in the traditional 3-4, but the tight splits inside look an awful lot like the classic Bear front (nose tackle over the center and two fellow linemen in a variance between 2i and 4 techniques). Bielema helped institute some of these principles in 2018 – his one season with the Patriots.

The common theme between all of these looks is to prevent specific run plays. The inside run becomes increasingly difficult with all the bodies down around the line of scrimmage. The even bigger factor (both literally and figuratively) is the beef inside.

Lining up with three down-linemen (pushing 300 pounds a pop) and defending one gap makes it nearly impossible to pull, which means the end of any gap-scheming.

The scheme is also designed to shut down inside zone, but also free up the linebackers with fewer keys and responsibilities. Instead of asking the defensive ends to set the edge on the way to their pass rush (the design of the wide-9) this alignment puts that responsibility on the outside linebackers.

The widened pre-snap alignment gives the linebackers a quicker, unimpeded path to outside runs. Only the Mike Linebacker has to weed through trash and take on blocks in this defense. Raekwon McMillan would likely serve as the Middle Linebacker. McMillan’s instincts and physicality at the point-of-attack would capitalize on the things the former Buckeye does well.

Then there’s the influence of the actual Titled-Defensive Coordinator, Patrick Graham. Working under Mike Pettine, Graham absorbed the principles of the Bear front and the 46 defense. Pettine spent time with Rex Ryan in Baltimore and with the New York Jets and, as we all know, Rex’s Dad Buddy was the originator of the 46 defense.

The imagine comes from the Patriots defense, but it’s along the lines of what you see in Green Bay with Pettine (and Graham). Four down-linemen condensed to create space off the edge of the linebackers. This means more pass rushing opportunities from linebackers.

Later, as it inches near official status in the way it has with Graham, we will dive into the potential principles and concepts of Jim Caldwell’s offense in today’s NFL. Much like the Dolphins inclination to bring an experienced consultant along with the young defensive boss, the play on the attack unit is heading in that direction as well.

These consultants figure in as prominent fixtures early in this experimental tenure of young coaches. Caldwell (63-years-old with 41 years of coaching experience) and Bielema (48-years-old with 22 years of coaching experience) can ease the transition to the Flores/Graham grouping along with whomever (possibly Chad O’Shea of the Patriots) Flores chooses as his Offensive Coordinator.

The offensive crash course will be posted just as soon as we have more concrete news.

@WingfieldNFL

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Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins Mock Draft Roundup: A Kyler Murray Sighting

Skyler Trunck

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It is that time of year again.  Yes, the time of year where we all jump to immediate conclusions, argue and judge each other on projections that, statistically speaking, have a less chance of happening than winning the lottery or being struck by lightning multiple times.

It’s mock draft season!  Well – it’s been mock draft season since December 30th but who’s counting…

Let’s get started on what I hope becomes a weekly (or bi-weekly depending on how many updates are made) mock draft roundup for Miami’s 13th overall pick:

 

Bleacher Report: Greedy Williams – CB – LSU

Greedy Williams, arguably one of the top corners in this draft — right up there with Washington corner Byron Murphy.  Someone to pair with all-pro corner, Xavien Howard, is a need for this Miami defense. Drafting or bringing in a reliable #2 corner also allows Miami to play players like Bobby McCain and Minkah Fitzpatrick in their proper roles, slot corner and safety respectively.

Williams is a tall corner, measuring in at 6’3”.  Add in the speed he possesses and simply looking at the metrics, he has what you want, physically, for a corner.

 

CBS Sports: Greedy Williams – CB – LSU

Right off the bat, two mocks having Miami select LSU corner, Greedy Williams.  It’s hard to argue against this pick when you watch Williams.

For those looking for a quarterback, this mock draft saw four — yes, four — quarterbacks go before Miami’s selection.  In between those selections saw a lot of the top defensive line players taken – both edge and interior. Assuming this is the case, a player like Williams would be a solid pick as far as value and need go.

 

The Draft Network: Kyler Murray – QB – Oklahoma

Now it’s getting exciting!  There isn’t a player in this draft with more hype than Kyler Murray.  As written here at Locked on Dolphins, Murray has the answers for this Miami team.

Some question if he will be available at #13.  As Ian Rapoport reports, maybe that idea isn’t so far-fetched.  Maybe it’s just early smoke-screens or maybe teams are actually concerned about his size.  Make no mistake, despite the round 2 or 3 grade, quarterbacks always find their name called much earlier.  Murray will be no exception.

2019 still may be a “rebuilding” year, but I promise drafting Murray would produce a season defined as anything but boring.  If you’re hoping for Miami to make a splash in the draft, drafting Murray would certainly be the biggest play.

 

Drafttek: Dexter Lawrence – DT – Clemson

Dexter Lawrence did not play in Clemson’s final two games, which ultimately resulted in a national championship.  Although Lawrence wasn’t on the field, don’t misunderstand the impact Lawrence had on this Clemson team.

Lawrence has the size to play on the interior of a defensive line, coming in at 6’4” and 340 lbs.  He isn’t the quickest tackle in the world, but he can stop the run with the best of them and bring interior pressure to disrupt the quarterback.  Although I feel this is high for Lawrence and there may be more impactful positional prospects available at this pick (e.g. defensive end Jachai Polite, Montez Sweat), he would be a safe pick who would contribute day 1 for this Miami defense.

 

Pro Football Focus: Dexter Lawrence – DT – Clemson

This now makes two choices for Clemson star interior defensive lineman, Dexter Lawrence.  

What is interesting, in this mock, players like Houston’s Ed Oliver were still available.  Oliver, also an interior defensive lineman, has a different skillset than Lawrence, obvious by Oliver coming in measured at 6’3” and 292 lbs.

Is Miami looking for that big man in the middle who doesn’t get moved around (like Minnesota defensive tackle, Linval Joseph), or the quick tackle, more built for pass-rushing (like Los Angeles defensive tackle Aaron Donald).  Who knows, but if both are in the board, Miami’s plan for the future at defensive line will be clear with this pick.

 

SB Nation: Daniel Jones – QB – Duke

It’s no secret Miami is in the market for a quarterback.  Although Duke quarterback, Daniel Jones, has potential, this would be a reach.  Jones doesn’t seem to have the high ceiling other quarterbacks slotted in the first round do, so why reach on a player who at best may be a slightly better version of Ryan Tannehill?  There are other options out there at a cheaper price.

When you thrown in Miami is supposedly eyeing the 2020 draft class for their franchise quarterback with the 2019 draft geared towards fixing the trenches, it only raises more questions at why this may be the pick.

All that said, it’s the NFL draft.  Smoke screens are a plenty and no one really knows what a team is going to do and how a player will or won’t turn out.  Pulling the trigger on your franchise quarterback is certainly alluring, but why not put your chips all in on a player who has the franchise-altering potential?  I just don’t see it with Jones.

 


 

I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on who Miami should take at #13.  Follow me on Twitter @skylertrunck and let’s discuss.

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