Who: Dolphins (3-1) at Bengals (3-1)
When: October 7, 1:00 East
Where: Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Weather: 86 degrees, 20% chance of rain
Vegas Slant: Bengals -6.5
Dolphins at Bengals
Despite rushing out to a 3-1 record in the first quarter of the season, leading the AFC East and 13 of their intra-conference foes, the Dolphins are being left for dead – again.
All the goodwill built up through an unbeaten three-game stretch toppled in a matter of 60 minutes of sheer futility. Out-classed, out-coached and out-played, the Dolphins’ ship is taking on water – at least from a national perspective.
Walking wounded into the Jungle is the biggest cause for concern. A poor road team with injuries in key areas, going up against a white-hot offense, it’s understandable why Miami enters this sneaky-important game as touchdown underdogs.
Winning this game, however, strengthens Miami’s sole possession of first place in the division and it would register another crucial head-to-head win against a playoff contender (that victory over Tennessee will prove vital in three months).
The Bengals Scheme:
Dolphins fans will recognize this Bengals attack. Bill Lazor runs a variation of the spread scheme with plenty of zone-read options in the running game.
What makes this entire offense more explosive than it ever has been is the vast options in the passing game. This is not the run-of-the-mill Bengals squad that went as A.J. Green went in year’s past. Lazor utilizes Tyler Boyd as his chain-mover, John Ross as his field-stretcher and a pair of highly skilled backs to stretch defenses extremely thin from a match-up standpoint.
The running game, much like it is in Miami, is predicated on getting preferable number counts in the box. Also similar to Miami, it has a built in adaptability to extend the run into a quick-screen substitution.
The football comes out of Dalton’s hands quickly, relying upon this supremely skilled group of pass catchers to win routes early. Lazor also displays a penchant for masking some of the short comings available to him in pass protection.
What makes this offense unique is its ability to attack vertically from the spread/quick-style that it’s centered around. Switch concepts, stacks, bunches and anyway to create a hesitation step from the secondary and Andy Dalton will put the ball up early, in order to let his guys make a play.
Like the offense, the Bengals defense will look familiar to Dolphins fans. Coming from Detroit, a major influence on the current Miami stop-unit, Teryl Austin brings his aggressive zone-based coverage with an even, attacking front on the line of scrimmage.
At times, Austin will call man-coverage or even combo coverage that utilizes William Jackson as the MEG (man everywhere he goes) principle.
Also like Miami, Austin makes heavy use of his linebacker personnel. Unfortunately for Miami, Vontaze Burfict returns this week to bolster a suspect group. Playing downhill, the best counter for this defense is plenty of misdirection and stretch zone running concepts.
The more Miami can stretch this defense horizontally, the better off the offense will be.
For Miami to sustain drives, they will need to keep the offense on schedule, but also handle a variety of blitz packages and stunts from the Cincinnati front-seven – something of a chore for this team dating a few years back.
Andy Dalton is playing like the 2015-version of the Red Riffle that was in the MVP hunt before an injury cut his season short. He’s playing, fast, with confidence, and terrific downfield touch and accuracy.
Perhaps the biggest pendulum for this game is which Dalton shows up, and will Miami make him pay for his disaster decisions? He’s prone to throwing balls into heavily flooded areas and will give the defense opportunities for takeaways – Miami leads the NFL in interceptions.
If Xavien Howard is going to attempt to keep up with A.J. Green, and Minkah Fitzpatrick follows Tyler Boyd into the slot, that leaves John Ross and a slew of backs and tight ends to contend with.
Joe Mixon’s availability looms large. By mere function of this offense, if Mixon plays, he will get reps against these Miami linebackers that struggle immensely in coverage.
Miami’s advantage on this side of the ball comes in the trenches. Cordy Glenn is a bit of a plodder while the right side of the Cincinnati offensive line is, well, offensive.
Robert Quinn and Cameron Wake have to make an impact on this game for the defense to have any success. So long as the coverage holds up for two seconds, the Miami pass rush could help win this game. Glenn is a great match-up for Quinn and Bobby Hart is favorable for Wake.
Geno Atkins is a wrecker of worlds. He’s strong, laterally dominant and technically sound. Most teams will chip and try to use his leverage against him. If Miami can’t execute that, and has to commit a body inside, that frees up the edges of the Bengals pass rush.
This side of the ball will come down to the match-ups between Laremy Tunsil and Ja’Wuan James vs. Carl Lawson, Carlos Dunlap, Jordan Willis and Sam Hubbard. If the bookends can consistently win one-on-one match-ups, Miami has a shot.
Vontaze Burfict returns to a linebacker group that needs a shot in the arm. Because of their over-pursuit and aggressive one-gap style, this is the game that Kenyan Drake needs to be set free. Outside stretch zone with the bend-back lane will be vital to Miami establishing a ground game, but also getting Drake into the flat on swing and screen routes.
The Falcons used this aggressive nature against the Bengals last week with plenty of misdirection, but also variety in the running game (zone, split-zone and even power).
William Jackson isn’t having the year many expected him to, but he will likely stay on the left side of the offensive formation. Dre Kirkpatrick plays the other side with Darqueze Dennard in the slot – these corners are tough, so Miami needs to establish that running game to create the advantage of balance and uncertainty.
Rookie Jesse Bates is having a terrific season on the backend and it’ll be crucial for Ryan Tannehill to displace him with eye manipulation.
Miami is getting Reshad Jones back this week, a massively important addition to the secondary, leadership standpoint and overall tackling on the back-end.
Dolphins (Full participants not listed)
|LB Chase Allen||Foot||Limited|
|RB Brandon Bolden||Hamstring||DNP|
|DE Andre Branch||Foot||DNP||OUT|
|TE A.J. Derby||Foot||DNP||OUT|
|CB Bobby McCain||Knee||DNP||OUT|
|DE Cam Wake||Knee||DNP|
|WR Devante Parker||Quad||Limited|
|RB Giovani Bernard||Knee||DNP|
|TE Tyler Eifert||Ankle||DNP||OUT|
|OC Billy Price||Foot||DNP||OUT|
|LB Preston Brown||Shoulder||Limited|
|DE Michael Johnson||Knee||Limited|
|RB Joe Mixon||Knee||Limited|
|WR John Ross||Groin||Limited|
|OG Alex Redmond||Shoulder||Limited|
Miami’s offensive line was supposed to be a strength of the team. Two season-ending injuries later, it’s a concern – particularly against a team as good in the trenches as Cincinnati. If the interior of the pocket is compromised, Tannehill’s game suffers and Miami’s offense becomes inoperable.
On defense, tackling and handling the multiple looks Bill Lazor is sure to throw at the Dolphins will be paramount.
Under Adam Gase, Miami is an awful road team and a slow-starting squad. Both of those need to be improved if Miami are to stand a chance.
The Falcons offense, with its multiple looks, misdirection and two-man route combinations gave the Bengals’ defense all it could handle. Miami operates on a similar plane (just with less success) but they could copy Steve Sarkisian’s plan and keep pace with the Bengals offense.
Displacing linebackers and flooding the zone with drive concepts could create big run-after-the-catch opportunities. This can’t happen if the back has to stay in and help out with interior pressure, however.
1.) Tunsil and James lock down the edges – Part of the next man up philosophy is having the healthy soldiers elevate their game. They’re going to be on an island as the help will work inside with the new starters – James and Tunsil need to be great.
2.) Winning off the edge on defense – The converse of point one, Miami has to beat the Cincinnati tackles and create pressure on Dalton. If he’s able to scan his array of options, Miami has no chance.
3.) Stay on the damn field – Miami’s offense has been atrocious the last two games at sustaining drives. Giving the Bengals offense 80 plays will lead to a certain lopsided loss.
The Projected Result:
I’m changing my tune and picking a Dolphins win for the following reasons:
– This team plays better when it’s doubted compared to when it’s praised.
– There is typically a progression back up towards the mean after a blowout loss.
– Ryan Tanenhill bounces back, he typically does after stinkers like that one last week.
– Kenyan Drake gets involved in both the pass and running-game.
– Cincinnati, off a thrilling win last week, peeks ahead to Pittsburgh and plays flat.
– Miami gets some takeaways off the turnover-prone quarterback and protects the ball on offense.
I will say, I’m 4-0 picking Dolphins games this year (both straight up and against the spread) and this is my least confident pick. The match-ups lean in favor of Cincinnati, but I expect Gase and company to have this team ready and to hit the Bengals with variety in the play calling.
This game is crucial from a playoff position standpoint. Notching wins against the Titans and Bengals would go a long way towards tie-breaking scenarios.
Miami wins on a buzzer beater field goal with big days from Tannehill, Drake, Wake and Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Fits and Starts of the 2019 NFL Draft–Jarrett Stidham
Which 2019 NFL Draft quarterbacks fit for the Miami Dolphins, which ones could start, and which ones aren’t on the table?
Let’s dive into the first installment of Fits and Starts with Auburn’s Jarrett Stidham.
2019 NFL Draft quarterbacks and Fits and Starts intro
I hope you’re enjoying all the Kyler Murray talk; it’s not going anywhere for the next two months. So, with all the hype surrounding the Heisman winner and his decision to play in the NFL over the MLB, it makes sense that Murray shot up the draft boards in rapid fashion.
Murray has been connected with the Miami Dolphins, and it makes sense. The Dolphins need a quarterback to lead the franchise into the future, especially with the start of the Brian Flores era.
But what happens if the Dolphins can’t get Kyler Murrayin the 2019 Draft? Let’s take that a step further. What if the Dolphins don’t get any of the QBs that are pegged to go in the first round? Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, Daniel Jones, along with Murray, are all in the conversation to go off the board in the first round.
The 2019 QB class hasn’t exactly been lauded for its talent, but that doesn’t mean its totally devoid of untapped potential on Days 2 and 3. There are some diamonds in the rough and some could be on the Dolphins’ radar come April. The Fits and Starts mini-series will be focusing on these overshadowed mid-round prospects and who could fit into a role with the Miami Dolphins.
Let’s get into the first name on the list: Jarrett Stidham.
Jarrett Stidham and his NFL Future
The first quarterback on the docket is Auburn’s Jarrett Stidham. He’s an enigmatic player. He was in the conversation last draft season (before he returned to Auburn) to go in the second round. He was also talked about as a dark-horse Heisman candidate before the college season started.
His junior season didn’t go exactly as scripted, though. Jarrett Stidham had an up-and-down season, and his draft stock has been all over the place, consequently. He’s polarizing in the Twitter Draft realm with many draftniks either loving or hating him. I predict that he’ll go in the third round, but I could see the need for the position pushing him into the second round.
In a lot of ways, I would compare Jarrett Stidham to Ryan Tannehill. With that being said, he’s a poor man’s Tannehill. He’s not as athletic and I wouldn’t put his arm strength or accuracy on the same level, but there are comparisons that can be drawn.
Jarrett Stidham Mini-Report
He has some starter qualities, and he’s very raw in that regard. He also did not get a lot of help from his receivers during the 2018 season. I saw a lot of dropped passes that should’ve been “gimmes”. Jarrett Stidham has a moderately high ceiling, I would say. He’s extremely rough around the edges, but I can see him becoming successful in the NFL; it’ll come with many growing pains, albeit.
He also has some accuracy issues from a lot of the film I’ve watched of him. He’ll make some unbelievable down-the-field bombs, but also make some passes that are too high, too inside or too outside. Many passes were underthrown and I saw plays where WRs had to turn and play some defense. The accuracy is a roller coaster, and that’s something that is hard to improve at the next level; accuracy is more a God-given ability than it is a teachable skill.
Something else that I wasn’t wild about was how Stidham reacted to chaos and pressure. When the line collapsed, I saw some ugly escapes. Those ugly escapes will be ugly sacks in the NFL. I saw flashes of decent pocket presence, but like many of Stidham’s qualities, they were inconsistent.
That’s one of the best words I would use to describe Jarrett Stidham: inconsistent. Sometimes he’s good, sometimes he’s bad. Sometimes he’ll thread the needle for a 40-yard touchdown, sometimes he’ll undercut a route. But if the inconsistency is his biggest issue, which I believe it is, then I’m intrigued by his prospects at the next level with some next-level coaching.
At the End of the Day
So, if the Dolphins drafted Jarrett Stidham, it’d likely be on Day 2 and in the second round with the 48th pick. While the Dolphins are rebuilding, I could see them using a popular draft philosophy of taking a quarterback every year until one hits. If that’s the case, then Stidham could very well be a target if the Dolphins decide to address a bigger need or BPA with the 13th pick.
This could be a way for the Dolphins to hedge their bets while keeping an eye on the 2020 quarterbacks. Akin to the Redskins taking both RGIII and Kirk Cousins in the same draft in 2012, the Dolphins could take a flier on a mid-round quarterback and see what he could do in some games under the guidance of a veteran.
While I wouldn’t be upset by the pick, the Miami Dolphins would be wise to stay away from Jarrett Stidham, bottom line. I say that not because of Stidham’s shortcomings or upside but because of where the Miami Dolphins franchise finds itself.
If Jarrett Stidham goes out and has a decent showing in some live action during his rookie season, then that could affect the draft strategy regarding the 2020 class of quarterbacks.
I don’t want the Dolphins to keep waiting and waiting for someone to slowly develop as they did with Ryan Tannehill. Stidham is in a similar mold, looking at his tools and raw potential. I’m not sure how long it would take for Stidham develop, but I could see it turning into a situation where he takes a few steps forward every season.
Jarrett Stidham could be a quarterback that Chris Grier likes, but I would have a hard time believing that he’s a prospect that he would love–and that’s not what the Miami Dolphins need to right the ship.
State of the Roster – Linebackers
The 2019 off-season schedule had an unusual beginning for the Miami Dolphins. Not that the once proud, winningest organization in the NFL is suddenly new to coaching turnover (quite the opposite, rather). It’s the timing of the hire that provides the distinction from Stephen Ross’ three other head coaching appointments.
Typically, when the incumbent or new staff is in-place by Early-January, the roster dominoes begin to take shape. Waiting for Brian Flores to win his fifth Lombardi Trophy delayed that process by a month.
Now, with the majority of Coach Flores’ staff settling into their new offices, we can begin to speculate and forecast what will transpire over the next three months.
It’s not hyperbole to say that these next three months are the most important of Chris Grier’s professional career. Miami’s new General Manager is charged with resurrecting a franchise that, in the last 15 years, has fallen from the peak of the winning percentage mountain top, all the way down to fifth place on that obscure, yet illustrious list.
In this series we are going to explore the current assets on the roster and what their futures hold. Plus, we’ll explore the free-agency market and point out scheme fit pieces the Dolphins might seek to add in April’s draft.
Current Cash Owed: ~ $10.1 Million
NFL Average: ~ $18 Million
Players Under Contract – 2019 Cash Owed:
Raekwon McMillan – $892 K
After a slow start McMillan came on like gangbusters; at least in run-defense. From week-five on, McMillan was graded second by PFF against the run (trailing only Luke Kuechly). His first year off major reconstructive knee surgery, the upside is glowing.
McMillan has a knack for correctly hitting his run fits, shows a great first step, and plays exceptionally well downhill. The design of this new defense is going to have the former Buckeye shining.
McMillan’s Projected 2019 Action: Mike Linebacker
Jerome Baker – $654 K
Like McMillan, Baker was late to the party in 2018, but he too turned it on post-September. Baker was PFF’s #22 overall linebacker over the final 13 weeks of the season. Though Baker also excelled against the run, he was more balanced providing value in coverage and as a blitzer. His PRP was similarly low to McMillan’s, but when Baker arrive he sacked the QB (3 of 5 pressures).
Baker is the new-aged linebacker – run, hit, and cover; that’s his game. He will have to transition to a new role playing primarily on the ball and off the edge, likely the weak side, but he’s more than capable.
Baker’s Projected 2019 Action: Will Backer
Kiko Alonso – $7.9 M
Kiko Alonso is a living, breathing highlight reel. The problem, for Miami, is that he’s usually on someone else’s mixtape. Alonso does well when he I.D.’s his gap early, but those instances are few and far between. He hustles to the ball and has a knack for the takeaway, it’s just the other 995 snaps of the season you worry about.
Turned around by the athletic prowess of Josh Allen, Christian McCaffery, or just about every pass receiving specialist tailback, Alonso is fading towards irrelevance at the position. Moving on from the often burnt, often penalized Alonso, is a no-brainer.
Alonso’s Projected 2019 Action: Cut
Chase Allen – $645 K
New England’s Linebacker position, under Brian Flores, was the ultimate test of pliability. Chase Allen has a role lining up over the center as the nose-backer in one of Flores’ many defensive fronts.
Allen excelled in that role in Miami, albeit on a limited basis, and figures to be a core special teamer.
Allen’s Projected 2019 Action: Nose Backer/Core Special Teamer
Pending Free Agents – 2018 Salary
Stephone Anthony – $1.9 M
The ole’ Mike Tannenbaum specialty, Miami spent a fifth-round pick, and far too much cap allocation, on a player that never made a contribution. Anthony was toast in his limited defensive snaps and rarely found the ball on special teams.
Anthony’s Projected 2019 Action: Not Re-signed
2019 Linebacker Free Agent Market:
The Dolphins could spend this portion of the off-season on the sideline. The likely top three players on the depth chart are already signed, sealed, and delivered, finding backups and special teams is all that’s left to do.
Now if the ‘Phins are so inclined to spend on the big ticket item, Anthony Barr would make nice strong-side linebacker in this new scheme. His coverage limitations should drive his cost down, but that’s not how free agency works – he’ll be priced out of Miami’s range.
Deone Bucannon is an interesting option that could help Miami remain fluid as they implement dime and quarter packages on the back-end. A safety/linebacker hybrid, Bucannon affords the defense the luxury of changing personnel without substituting. Bucannon is an excellent match-up piece in the passing game as well. Like Barr, Bucannon would come at a cost.
More realistically, Miami are looking at former Patriot Marquis Flowers and Eli Harold (Detroit).
2019 Linebacker Draft Class:
It’s not inconceivable that the Dolphins make this position a priority with the undrafted crop post-draft. The same idea with Jerome Baker, the ‘Phins need to find players that can run, hit, and cover but, most importantly, start off on special teams.
New Mexico State’s Terrill Hanks had 11 sacks and eight picks in college. His vast coverage and range skill set should be no surprise, he’s a former safety. Hanks struggles taking on blocks but that’s not a trait he will have to worry about in this scheme.
Bobby Okereke (Stanford) fits the run/hit/cover bill in his own right. North Carolina State’s Germaine Pratt falls into that category as well.
2019 Linebacker Prediction:
There are plenty of intriguing options at the positon but, with the needs on the defensive line and in the secondary, Miami could punt on this off-season’s linebacker class. In a defense that frequently uses one true ‘backer, Raekwon McMillan satisfies that bill. Jerome Baker will be the second linebacker and the Phins will look to pair Chase Allen with more sub-package types.
I’m adding Marquis Flowers in free agency – he was with the Pats for the first four years of his career. I’m also drafting Stanford’s Bobby Okereke on day-three. He’s an intelligent player with plus range and will help Miami’s flexibility in sub-packages.
Mike/Primary Linebacker: Raekwon McMillan
Will/Secondary Linebacker: Jerome Baker
Nose Backer: Chase Allen
Sub-Package: Rookie (Bobby Okereke)
Depth: UDFA/FA (Marquis Flowers)
5 Viable Options for Miami at Pick 13
Mock drafts before April are about as futile as trick-or-treating before Halloween. Sure you might get miraculously lucky at one or two spots, but mostly you’ll just get weird looks from people. That being said, I’ve decided to mock up some scenarios the Dolphins may be presented with come late April.
Despite a flurry of updated scouting reports, trades, and free agent decisions that will ultimately happen before the draft, I couldn’t resist speculating what some of the most enticing options might be waiting there for Miami. I’ll be looking at these options under the assumption that Miami keeps the 13th pick come draft day.
1 – Trade Down
Trading down was something owner Stephen Ross reportedly pounded the table for last year. However, GM Chris Grier and company persuaded him to stay put and take Minkah Fitzpatrick with the 11th overall pick. While Fitzpatrick turned out to be a promising investment, I would expect the war room to try and gather as much draft capital as they can this time around.
The organization, specifically Ross, has put an emphasis on rebuilding the roster from the ground up these next few years, and there’s no better way to do that than by hoarding draft picks.
2 – Blue Chip Falls to 13 (BPA)
Much like the case with Fitzpatrick last year, there’s bound to be a blue chip player that falls out of the top 10 this year. If Miami’s war room decides not to trade back in the first round, it’s likely because they feel that a top talent has fallen into their laps at pick 13–similar to the Laremy Tunsil slide in 2016.
Unfortunately Nick Bosa is out of the question for Miami. I can’t fathom a universe where Bosa would fall to 13. Quinnen Williams would be a no-brainer here, but much like Bosa, its unlikely he’ll fall to pick 13. If he does however, he would fill a major need for Miami as well as add tremendous upside to a lack-luster defensive line.
Three prospects that also have top 10 grades are Greedy Williams, Josh Allen, and Devin White. These three are the physical definition of what you look for in a potential All-Pro football player. With all the shuffling expected to happen to Miami’s roster, these players could be immediate contributors and leaders as soon as they walk onto the field.
3 – Draft QB
I’m a firm believer that Miami needs to be patient with their quarterback situation. Miami isn’t expecting to win many games in the coming year or two, and this isn’t expected to be a great draft class for passers. Now as much as I like Kyler Murray, I can’t help but to think that other quarterbacks like Jake Fromm, Tua Tagovailoa, and Trevor Lawrence would provide more upside in the long run.
Despite the potential of future quarterbacks to come, this brain-trust of experienced scouts and well respected personnel guys might not let a guy like Murray slip past pick 13. Miami has many needs on paper, and quarterback is right up near the top of those needs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kyler be the first step of this rebuild if the war room thinks he’s worth the risk.
4 – Attempt to Replace an All-Pro
Sadly enough, there won’t be a younger clone of Cameron Wake waiting there at pick 13. The end of an era is coming, and sooner or later the Dolphins won’t have the consistency off the edge that Wake has been able to provide for so many years.
Brian Burns reminds me of Wake at times, but he also reminds me of Dion Jordan at times. The general opinion is that Burns could end up being a project player. I have no doubt this coaching staff has the ability to maximize the potential of Burns, but they might not like the value here.
Rashan Gary would be another enticing option were he to fall to Miami. Gary’s flexibility across the defensive line coincides perfectly with Brian Flores‘ multiple defensive scheme. Gary has the potential to be an All-Pro early in his career wherever Folres decides to put him on the defensive line.
5 – Address the O-Line
I’m interested to see what happens with Ju’Wuan James. He’s been a quiet strength for Miami. The combination of him and Tunsil has proven to be a consistent force when healthy. If James is willing to come back for the right price, Miami would be lucky to have one less hole to worry about.
If a deal with James isn’t struck, then offensive linemen will be one of Miami’s top priorities in the draft. They may be tempted to take an early look at offensive lineman depending on how the board falls. I expect the war room to find at least one starting quality offensive lineman within the first three rounds.
Dolphins’ fans are at the beginning of a very long journey. The recent organizational hires have inspired widespread optimism across the fan base. For the first time in a long time the future is looking bright for the Dolphins. Needless to say this draft will be a pivotal start to the Dolphins’ rebuild. The difficult decisions that Grier and his new staff will soon be faced with will reveal the direction in which this franchise is headed.
- Fits and Starts of the 2019 NFL Draft–Jarrett Stidham February 19, 2019
- State of the Roster – Linebackers February 19, 2019
- 5 Viable Options for Miami at Pick 13 February 19, 2019
- Inside the Film Room – Dolphins New Defensive Scheme February 18, 2019
- Inside the Film Room – Dolphins New Offensive System February 17, 2019
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