We are hours away from what we have all been waiting for, The 2018 NFL Draft! All our mocks, projections and predictions get lit on fire as soon as that first pick is in. The anxiety, social media debating and claims of knowing who’s going where will all cease soon and instead we will be at each other’s throats over who our teams ACTUALY picked after all. Below is how I think the draft will shake out…and I’m probably wrong! Enjoy!
- CLEVELAND BROWNS – BAKER MAYFIELD, QB
The Browns start the Draft with their future Franchise QB. John Dorsey takes the charismatic signal-caller that is most ready to lead a team out of the depths of the NFL. Mayfield will be the spark that lights the fire in this franchise and helps rally their new acquisitions to dawn a new era in Cleveland football. Look for Baker to start behind Tyrod Taylor so he can learn and develop first.
- NEW YORK GIANTS – SAQUAN BARKLEY, RB
GM Dave Gettleman said he wants a “Gold Jacket” guy. Well I think there are two shoe-ins for that in this Draft. Barkley and Quentin Nelson. While the Giants could use the O-Line help, they instead opt for the running back to ease some of the pressure on an aging Eli Manning and help balance out this offense a little more.
- NEW YORK JETS – SAM DARNOLD, QB
The Jets get the cleanest QB prospect in the draft after trading up to the 3rd pick with Indy earlier in the offseason. Darnold’s cool and calm demeanor will be able to handle the pitfalls of the lights and glamour of New York. He also can sit back and learn and develop behind the likes of Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater.
- CLEVELAND BROWNS – BRADLEY CHUBB, DE
With their second pick in the first round the Browns go defense. Chubb is projected to be a force off the edge and pairing him with Myles Garret will have opposing offenses up late at night for years to come.
- BUFFALO BILLS** – JOSH ALLEN, QB
TRADE ALERT! The Buffalo Bills trade their two first round picks to get in the top 10 and select their preferred Quarterback. Josh Allen has a rocket for an arm and is built like brick house. His size and strength are ideal for Buffalo. Allen is a little raw but he can sit behind newly signed AJ McCarron until he’s ready. If he is developed properly, his potential is through the roof.
- INDIANPOLIS COLTS – ROQUAN SMITH, LB
The Colts, whom traded back from the 3rd pick originally with the Jets have two ways to go here, Quentin Nelson or Roquan Smith. I think they take Smith due to his leadership and their need for a defensive leader. The interior O-Line positions are slightly deeper in this class so they take the Georgia linebacker in hopes of turning their defense around.
- TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS – DERWIN JAMES, S
The Bucs were not good vs the pass last season and they shore that right up with James. The FSU safety comes in as the dynamo of the defense and looks to help turn that side of the ball into a force.
- CHICAGO BEARS – QUENTIN NELSON, G
The Bears get a new Monster of the Midway in Nelson. This beast of a man is one of the cleanest prospects in the draft with one of the highest ceilings. The Bears need help keeping last year’s top pick, QB Mitch Trubisky, clean and they do so by making the Notre Dame lineman their top pick.
- ARIZONA CARDINALS** – JOSH ROSEN, QB
TRADE ALERT! The Cardinals lost QB Carson Palmer to retirement and signed incumbent Sam Bradford for the upcoming season. Bradford doesn’t have the greatest track record of staying healthy and Arizona’s line is not the best. They have a new Head Coach and they make a move here with San Francisco to get “their guy,” and to get ahead of Miami. Rosen is the most NFL-ready QB in this draft and can throw the ball better than anyone at the position.
- OAKLAND RAIDERS – MIKE MCGLINCHEY, OT
The second era of Jon Gruden in Oakland starts with one of the most solid prospects in the draft. McGlinchey is the top Offensive Tackle in this draft and is as clean as they come in terms of off the field and leadership. Gruden will now have a blue-chip guy protecting Derek Carr for years to come.
- MIAMI DOLPHINS – MINKAH FITZPATRICK, DB
Now, the moment most of us have been waiting for…The Miami Dolphins select Minkah Fitzpatrick. The Dolphins have a lot of needs this draft and Minkah fits what they are looking for. They could consider a QB, if Rosen fell or a linebacker like Edmunds but Fitzpatrick offers more schematic flexibility. Able to play Free Safety and Corner, he helps in areas where Miami is weak when it comes to coverages and disguising blitzes as well. Minkah matches up well as a coverage guy vs running backs and tight ends and it allows Reshad Jones and TJ McDonald to play more snaps at their traditional role of “Box Safety.”
- DENVER BRONCOS** – DENZEL WARD, CB
After trading back with Buffalo, Denver takes the best player available on their board, Denzel Ward. They traded away Aqib Talib this offseason and end up landing the #1 cornerback in the draft all the while acquiring more picks.
- WASHINGTON REDSKINS – VITA VEA, DT
The Redskins hold tight and grab the behemoth defensive tackle from University of Washington. Vea is a nimble 6’4 350lb lineman that will help Washington with its run defense. Much needed after the Giants took Barkley and the Eagles and Cowboys already have strong running games.
- GREEN BAY PACKERS – JAIRE ALEXANDER, CB
The Packers took a Cornerback early in the Draft last year and do the same this year. Giving them a bright future in the secondary.
- SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS** – TREMAINE EDMUNDS, OLB
John Lynch and Co. traded back with Arizona due to their desperation for a QB of the future and they still get their guy at 15. Edmunds is ONLY 19 years old and is a freakish athlete that can do almost anything. He improves their pass rush and their sub packages.
- BALTIMORE RAVENS – RASHAAN EVANS, LB
Ozzie Newsome goes back to the well of his Alma Mater and take Rashaan Evans. He will undoubtedly help fill their need for a hard-hitting playmaker at linebacker to pair with another former Bama standout, CJ Mosley.
- LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – DA’RON PAYNE, DT
The Chargers have one of the best pass rush tandems in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, the addition of Payne helps them get more pressure from the middle. Making their front seven that much more formidable for the upcoming season.
- SEATTLE SEAHAWKS – WILL HERNANDEZ, G
The Seahawks are in the process of a roster turnover, losing a lot of big names from their past successes. In round one they take one of the nastier interior lineman in Hernandez. This will help protect Russell Wilson and improve their subpar run game.
- DALLAS COWBOYS – CALVIN RIDLEY, WR
Jerry Jones let Dez Bryant go with leaves a huge hole to fill in the WR department. Ridley, the best all -around WR in the draft will help Dak Prescott develop further.
- DETROIT LIONS – MARCUS DAVENPORT, DE
Lions need to improve their pass rush and Davenport has loads of potential and should contribute right away.
- CINCINATTI BENGALS – LAMAR JACKSON, QB
WOW! Is what I’m expecting when this pick happens. Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis continue to come up short. The Bengals bring in a playmaker at the QB position to challenge Dalton and maybe get him to take his game to another level.
- DENVER BRONCOS** – HAROLD LANDRY, DE
Denver, with their 2nd pick from the Buffalo trade adds an edge rusher to their team. Von Miller can’t do it all by himself and former first round pick Shane Ray has been underwhelming thus far.
- NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS – LEIGHTON VANDER ESCH, LB
The Pats need help at the Linebacker position and LvE is the best player on the board. Another physical freak with size and speed. Look for him to fit in nicely with the New England culture.
- CAROLINA PANTHERS – DJ MOORE, WR
While it seems like forever, the Panthers are still looking for Receiver help for their Franchise QB, Cam Newton. DJ Moore will try to become that guy.
- TENNESSEE TITANS – FRANK RAGNOW, C/G
The Titans have some needs, especially linebacker but instead of reaching they take the best value with Ragnow. He will help immediately with the interior O-Line play, able to fill in at Center or Guard.
- ATLANTA FALCONS – TAVEN BRYAN, DT
The Falcons need help on the inside of their defensive front, Taven Bryan fits the bill. Big and athletic, the former Florida Gator could be a day 1 starter for Atlanta.
- NEW ORLEANS SAINTS – CHRISTIAN KIRK, WR
The Saints lost Brandin Cooks last season and more recently lost Willie Snead to the Ravens. They added Cam Meredith from the Bears but he is coming off knee surgery. Kirk will fit nicely in the slot for Drew Brees and Co.
- PITTSBURGH STEELERS – SONY MICHEL, RB
The 2nd Running Back is off the board. The Steelers are at an impasse with Pro Bowl running back Le’Veon Bell and he could eventually walk into Free Agency. The Steelers take the UGA product as a 1-2 punch and possible future franchise back.
- JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS – DALLAS GOEDERT, TE
The Jags made it all the way to the AFC Championship game with Mercedes Lewis at TE. This offseason they sent him packing and have a hole at the position. With Goedert they get a playmaking TE, in the mold of a Travis Kelce, to help Blake Bortles.
- MINNESOTA VIKINGS – COURTLAND SUTTON, WR
The Vikes add another weapon to their offense to give new QB Kirk Cousins a big, fast target at the WR position to go with Stefon Diggs and Adam Theilen.
- NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS – MASON RUDOLPH, QB
Did you really think they would mortgage picks for a QB? Belichik and Co. are smarter than all of us, they hang back and take Rudolph to fill the void from when they traded away Jimmy Garoppolo to the 9ers.
- PHILADELPHIA EAGLES – HAYDEN HURST, TE
The Reigning Super Bowl Champs take a Tight End to pair with Zach Ertz after losing Trey Burton in Free Agency to round out the end of Round One.
Tune in to the Draft tonight and watch the drama unfold! Tweet me with your thoughts or opinions @MitchPr0 – Happy Draft Day!
Fantasy Friday: Week 7
This Sunday the Miami Dolphins will host the Detroit Lions in Miami. Below we will take a look at 3 fantasy players that could potentially have a good day vs the Lions. All projections are based on a PPR scoring system.
- Frank Gore (RB), Projection: 18pts
- Gore has been Miami’s most effective running back between the tackles. He is has shown that his age is not a factor as he looks to be reaching back in time lately and running like his younger self. I expect there to be a heavy dose of Gore with Brock Osweiler back at the helm of Quarterback. Look for Miami to use Gore often in red zone and he should get a touchdown or 2 this Sunday.
- Albert Wilson (WR), Projection: 15pts
- Albert Wilson has been excellent all season. He has been the best WR for Miami this season when it comes to scoring or making plays. His YAC has been ridiculous and look for that to continue vs Detroit’s weak secondary. He should catch plenty of passes and once again very may well find the end zone.
- Jakeem Grant (RB), Projection: 13pts
- Grant, a lot like Wilson in stature and skill set has been involved more and more as the season progresses. With Osweiler at Quarterback again for Miami, look for Adam Gase and Co to try and get Grant in space so he can use his speed to beat Detroit’s defense.
9 Players on the Trade Block for Miami to Consider
In recent weeks, a lot of teams and coaches have been “presumably” shopping players. The list is becoming longer by the day. Let’s take a look of players that are currently being shopped around.
To set the stage, Miami has been reportedly shopping wide receiver and former first round draft pick, Devante Parker. He will be factored into these trades to see if he is possible compensation.
Also, Miami is sitting at $7.5m (million) in cap space on the year, with $24m available for next. It’s probably safe to assume next year’s number will be higher as Miami has been known to cut high-dollar players in the off-season to free up cap.
However, this number still will be relatively low if Miami decides to re-new contracts of players like Cameron Wake, Ja’wuan James, William Hayes, etc. And if Miami was smart, they’d also look into re-signing players on rookie contracts such as Xavien Howard and Laremy Tunsil.
All-in-all, it’s safe to say Miami would need an impact, top-tier player if they would be willing to part with a large cap space chunk.
Le’veon Bell – RB – Pittsburgh Steelers
Let’s start with the biggest name on the trade block — Steeler bell-cow running back, Le’veon Bell. Bell has been holding out since week 1 in hopes to sign a big contract before the tread of playing RB in this league catches up to him.
Bell would be earning close to $14m (million) this year had he signed the franchise tag to begin the year. Last year he earned around $12m. Expect any contract he will sign to be a double digit figure per year.
One would assume Pittsburgh would probably demand a high-end draft pick back for Bell and not a player like Devante Parker in return as they are already pretty set at receiver. With all trade possibilities, Miami has draft capital they could work with.
Miami’s running back situation isn’t A-grade, but it’s far from bad. Considering they also drafted running back Kalen Ballage this last year, it’s safe to say this position is far from a need on this team.
Given Miami would have to give up a first or second round, and take on a double digit salary figure, this trade would be a hard pass.
LeSean McCoy – RB – Buffalo Bills
LeSean McCoy is the other big name running back being shopped around throughout the league. Despite his injury-riddled career, when McCoy plays, he’s one to watch and warrants the price tag that comes with.
LeSean McCoy 75 yard TD run! pic.twitter.com/o9XjZTxsrz
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) November 27, 2016
McCoy’s cap numbers aren’t quite as bad as what Bell wants — coming in closer $9m a year (contract expiring in 2020). Miami may be able to take on this contract, but like Bell, you’d likely have to part with another team star (e.g. Ja’wuan James, Cam Wake) this offseason to retain McCoy.
The Bills have also been rumored to want a high-pick in compensation; however, given their below average receiving team, it’s possible Devante Parker could be involved in a trade with Buffalo.
All that aside, running back isn’t a need for Miami, let alone a 30 year old, injury-riddled back with looming allegations. Even if you are okay with trading with division rivals, like Bell, McCoy should be a hard pass.
Ameer Abdullah – RB – Detroit Lions
Another running back on the trade block.
Unlike the other two backs on the block, Abdullah is still on his rookie contract. However, that contract expires after this year.
Abdullah would likely hit free agency this offseason if he stays in Detroit, as his talent level probably wouldn’t warrant an extension. This is especially true if rising back, Kerryon Johnson, continues to dominate touches in the Lions backfield.
Abdullah should only be considered if you’re looking for a cheap, stop-gap fill for running back, which is something Miami doesn’t need at this point.
Like all backs in this list, I don’t see this as a trade Miami should pursue.
Amari Cooper – WR – Oakland Raiders
Amari Cooper signed a big contract in 2015 to sign him on until 2019. A good chunk of that contract is due next year — nearly $14m. No wonder Oakland is shopping him.
Despite the numbers, Cooper is still a good receiver in this league. He may not be on the same level as Antonio Brown and Julio Jones, but he can be a legit weapon for teams.
However, Miami is not one of those teams needing receiving weapons. Miami has four legit wide receiver targets, and that does not include Devante Parker. If Miami was unwilling to pay Jarvis Landry a contract that large, why would they want to pay that to Cooper?
Cooper would likely have to take a pay-cut if Miami were to make a deal for him. All-in-all, considering Miami’s current receiving core, Cooper doesn’t bring something drastically different to the table that the other members don’t provide.
Given the lack of need, compensation required, and salary-cap implications, it’d be illogical to make a move for Amari Cooper unless one of those three changes.
Deone Bucannon – LB – Arizona Cardinals
Onto the defensive side of the ball. Deone Bucannon was drafted in 2014 as a strong safety prospect; however, he was quickly transitioned to weak-side linebacker, where he made a large impact on the Cardinals 2015 team that lost in the NFC Championship.
It’s all been downhill from there.
Out of 79 eligible linebackers graded by Pro Football Focus, Bucannon comes in dead last with a grade of 28.8. To put that in perspective, Miami tackle Sam Young, has a 29.2. Do you remember him?
Sam Young – “bet ya I can get you to the QB in less than 2 seconds.” pic.twitter.com/4YKPU03d7M
— Travis Wingfield (@WingfieldNFL) October 9, 2018
Yes — Bucannon is grading worse, according to PFF, than Young this season.
All that aside, is he worth a late-round flyer in hopes he returns to former glory? Maybe.
Patrick Peterson with a fantastic interception off a great defensive play by Deone Bucannon pic.twitter.com/hN0igqbdd4
— Revenge of the Birds (@revengeofbirds) November 19, 2017
Last year, Miami could have used a linebacker with Bucannon’s speed. However, Miami selected a similar player in Jerome Baker in this year’s draft, lessening the need for a speedy linebacker.
Bucannon’s contract is up after this year. It’s likely he hits free agency if he continues to play the way he has.
Unless Miami’s linebacking core takes a turn for the worse in upcoming weeks, it doesn’t make sense at this point to give up draft capital or players for a linebacker on the decline. If Miami wants to kick the tires on him, it’d be a better option to pursue him this offseason.
Haason Reddick – LB – Arizona Cardinals
Our own Kadeem Simmonds wrote a great piece on why Miami should trade for Haason Reddick. Although Miami’s linebacking core is playing better than expected this year, adding depth is never a bad idea.
Reddick was a 2017 first-round draft pick. Coming out of college, Reddick was sold as incredibly athletic with sky-high potential in this league but also marked as raw and as someone who would need time to develop. Knowing he needs time to develop in this league, it’s odd that Arizona is already ready to ship him.
It also didn’t help things that Arizona moved him to the edge, where he was severely undersized. He’s much more suited for an outside linebacker position where he can utilize his athleticism more.
Reddick is still on his rookie contract, so he’d be a great value. Of all players we’ve looked at so far, Reddick makes the most sense.
I expect a mid-to-late round pick would be sufficient for a player like Reddick, or a player like Devante Parker to pair with Cardinal rookie quarterback, Josh Rosen.
He’s cheap in both salary cap implications and trade compensation, has potential, and at the very least, provides depth. Make a move, Miami!
Patrick Peterson – CB – Arizona Cardinals
Huh — three Cardinals on the trade block? Seems like new head coach, Steven Wilks, wants to clean house. It makes sense after watching the beat-down Arizona took at home on Thursday night football.
It’s shocking to see Patrick Peterson on the trade block. He’s been in the pro bowl every year he’s been in this league, been selected to three all-pro first teams, and is only 28!
— Christian 🇵🇷 (@chriscruz2017) October 17, 2018
He’s an elite player in this league at a position some would argue as the most difficult to play in today’s NFL.
He’d be an expensive player to trade for in both salary cap implications and trade compensation. Although it’s not astronomical, he’s due $12m in 2019 and $13m in 2020. It’s also probably safe to assume a trade for Peterson would involve multiple high-end draft picks.
Miami still needs to pay their own star corner, Xavien Howard. Would it make sense to pay another corner to pair with Howard, especially after re-signing cornerback Bobby McCain this past offseason? Maybe not so much if you consider how much draft capital it would cost to attain him.
Although adding Peterson to a secondary consisting of Reshad Jones, TJ McDonald, Xavien Howard, Bobby McCain, and Minkah Fitzpatrick would be a dream secondary and a nightmare for opponents, the cost is just too steep.
It’s best Miami uses that draft capital and cap space elsewhere and continues to build for the future. Peterson is a trade-candidate better suited for a team that is one player away from a super bowl appearance. Miami is not that team.
Gareon Conley – CB – Oakland Raiders
Gareon Conley was selected just after Miami’s first round pick in the 2017 NFL draft. He was projected to go much higher, but due to off-field allegations at the time, he saw a draft day slip.
Raiders take Ohio St. CB Gareon Conley with the No. 24 overall pick. pic.twitter.com/uKVc2t3Ikn
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 28, 2017
Conley is a more intriguing target than Peterson for the simple fact the price is low. He’s on his rookie contract and wouldn’t demand high-end draft picks in a trade.
It’s no secret Miami is not deep at corner, as was on display this past weekend in Chicago. Conley seems like a player that’s worth making an offer for.
However, like Reddick, Conley is a player who hasn’t found success in this league yet.
If he were to come into Miami, he’d need time to grow in this system. He wouldn’t provide much, if any, upgrade over our current depth at corner, but next year — who knows?
Make an offer, Miami!
Karl Joseph – S – Oakland Raiders
Another former first rounder from Oakland on the trade block. Karl Joseph is an interesting trade target.
Like Conley, Joseph also hasn’t found success in this league, and he’s regressed this year having only played less than 3% of snaps in the three games he’s played before going down with an injury.
He had a promising start to his career, so it’s tough to decipher why Oakland would give him limited opportunities to start the year.
Coming out of college and in his limited NFL Career, Joseph has shown promise.
Karl Joseph, coming down from the 2-high alignment with a head of steam is a thing of beauty. pic.twitter.com/raVv3f91IM
— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) August 13, 2017
It’s tough to imagine Joseph will be a costly addition, possible a late round pick. It’s also clear Oakland is unhappy with Cooper given the trade rumors and his lack of production in some games this year. It’s possible a player like Devante Parker could be used as trade compensation for either Conley or Joseph.
Joseph seems like a player who could fit in this defense if he heals up and continues to build on his 2016 and 2017 season.
Miami’s own safety, TJ McDonald, is signed on until 2021, but Miami could move on from him after next year with minimal dead money. If Miami could get Joseph back on track, he may be a suitable, cheaper, and younger replacement to McDonald. At the least, he’d provide depth to a safety core that has seen Reshad Jones miss two games thus far this year.
Like Reddick and Conley, Joseph joins the list of players Miami should strongly consider making an offer for.
I’d be interested to here what you think. Follow me on Twitter @skylertrunck and let’s discuss.
So You Want A Franchise QB?
So you’ve come to the conclusion that this is the time to invest in a franchise quarterback.
Maybe you realized this 5 years ago, after having given up on Ryan Tannehill a few mediocre years into Joe Philbin‘s tenure.
Maybe you rode the Tannehill train for the past 7 years, only to come to the conclusion that you can’t go around the uncertain merry-go-round again.
Maybe you’re one of those critics that believe a football team should draft a quarterback every year until they get it right.
You may have started down a different path, but you joined together with plenty of other Dolphins fans and have become unified in the notion that the Miami Dolphins need a new quarterback.
So what does this mean for your beloved Miami Dolphins? A lot, actually. Everyone likes to fantasize over the latest draft possibilities at quarterback each season; it’s how we trick ourselves into thinking Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert are better than J.J. Watt.
In fact, look at the next four players drafted after Ryan Tannehill (who was 8th-overall in the 2012 NFL Draft):
Pick 9: Luke Kuechly (CAR)
10: Stephon Gilmore (BUF)
11: Dontari Poe (KC)
12: Fletcher Cox (PHI)
All of those players have gone to the Pro Bowl and are viewed as top players at their respective positions.
This isn’t to say that Tannehill was the wrong choice. Miami needed a quarterback and it’s fair to conclude that they weren’t going to select Russell Wilson in the 3rd-round. But this is just one example among many of how a quarterback is taken prior to better football players.
Let me get this out of the way up front. I like Ryan Tannehill as a quarterback and believe he received an untimely mix of poor coaching and poor offensive line play. Matt Ryan wouldn’t have succeeded in this environment and neither would Wilson. I don’t think it’s fair to take a different quarterback (that isn’t a Hall of Fame quarterback), insert them into Miami, and conclude that the team would have performed better. Look at what Jeff Fisher did to Jared Goff in one season with the St. Louis Rams. You don’t think Philbin had a big part in Tannehill’s (lack of) development early on? Insert the best coach/offensive coordinator Tannehill has had in his career and he has his best season cut short by an injury. It’s no coincidence Adam Gase was able to turn Tannehill into a legitimate franchise quarterback.
It’s just unfortunate that we might never really know how successful Tannehill would have been in Miami if he had a better situation around him. You want a hot take? I think Ryan Tannehill will win a playoff game for another team, and it’s going to be a smack in the face.
This is the play that Adam Gase believes is causing the issues with Ryan Tannehill’s right shoulder. Watch Tannehill’s right arm as Carlos Dunlap hits it for the sack-fumble-TD. pic.twitter.com/E7IKgeffeQ
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) October 15, 2018
But it’s also fair to to want a quarterback that is going to bring you certainty and not anxiety.
And that’s where we have to be careful with what you wish for.
Ryan Tannehill isn’t the reason this team wasn’t successful. This was a collective failure by the Miami Dolphins – a continuation of the mediocre ways they’ve developed this 21st century. Getting rid of Ryan Tannehill doesn’t solve your problem. In fact, it magnifies it greatly.
Unless your solution is to obtain Teddy Bridgewater (a player who had a worse knee injury and has seen less game-action than Tannehill has), or obtain a freshly-cut Eli Manning at season’s end (which, lets be honest, is extremely likely from the New York Giants‘ perspective), then you’re best avenue is to draft a quarterback. And for everyone’s sake, lets stop going with the retreads and start building a team.
Risk of Paying for a Prospect
This is the biggest push back fans make for trading up. It’s too risky.
Those with common sense realized that the Miami Dolphins were not going to finish in the top-10 of the 2019 NFL draft. They are too talented of a team (even without Tannehill) to go 5-11. And, given their current status, they’re not about lose 8 of the next 10 games, so it’s safe to say that the Dolphins are going to have to give up a lot of draft capital to obtain the guy they want.
I’m not content with “waiting” for a quarterback to fall. Miami hasn’t gotten lucky since Dan Marino wore #13, so I’m not hedging my bets that Aaron Rodgers falls to them in the late-teens/early-20s in the draft. Nor do I believe they’ll be able to identify a 1st-round talent like Russell Wilson in the 3rd-round.
This is the riskiest part of your decision. Are you willing to risk the next 4-5 years on a quarterback that might force you to do this same exercise all over again?
Keeping it easy, lets say Miami will have to give up (at least) 3 1st-round draft picks and 2 2nd-round draft picks to move to the top-3 spots of the draft. If you get this quarterback selection wrong, you’ve now eliminated 5 potentially productive players from your roster. As Dolphins fans, we know these draft picks don’t always pan out as such, but taking away 5 starting players on rookie contracts is a lot to overcompensate for.
With that said, does anyone remember what the Philadelphia Eagles gave up to get Carson Wentz? Anyone remember what the New York Giants gave up for Eli Manning? If you get the pick right, all future assets are instantly forgotten.
Shot 1 – The #Eagles were 9-of-16 on third down, and at one point Carson Wentz was 10-of-10 passing in those situations. Part of why was that he was completely in-sync with his WRs. Two big-time conversions here for big plays #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/6jibRwOW2K
— Fran Duffy (@fduffy3) October 12, 2018
Draft picks replenish annually. Miami can give up their 2019 and 2020 1st-round draft picks and by the time the Dolphins have figured out if their fresh new quarterback is the answer or not, they’ll have their 2021 and 2022 1st-round draft picks waiting for them, ready to be used in another blockbuster trade.
The fear is that getting this selection wrong means you’ve now set your franchise back for the unforeseeable future. Miami has avoided this risk and look what they’ve accomplished over the last 15 years. How much worse can a regrettable draft trade be than the current trend this team is on?
Benefit of a Young Quarterback
This is where you analyze how important a quarterback on a rookie contract is.
Carson Wentz brought the Philadelphia Eagles to a Super Bowl on a rookie deal.
Joe Flacco won a Super Bowl on a rookie deal.
Aaron Rodgers won a Super Bowl on a rookie deal.
Russell Wilson won a Super Bowl and went to another Super Bowl on a rookie deal.
Ben Roethlisburger won a Super Bowl on a rookie deal.
Eli Manning won his first Super Bowl on a rookie deal.
How else do all of those teams end up with such dominant defenses? Mark Sanchez went to back-to-back AFC Championship games because he cost nothing compared to the offensive and defensive talent they were able to build around him. That was a product of Mike Tannenbaum, and he followed the blueprint each other team above followed. Young quarterback mixed with a dominant (and expensive) team.
Happy 4 Year Anniversary, #ButtFumble!
It's been 1462 days since the unforgettable play. pic.twitter.com/oar50vINRt
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) November 23, 2016
Of all the teams that have gone to the Super Bowl in the last 6 years, only three quarterbacks weren’t on rookie contracts: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan. One of those quarterbacks accepts abundantly less than what he deserves to make (allowing his team to reap the benefits of the additional salary cap space) and the other happens to be a legitimate exception to the rule (Ryan). Manning only made $17.5m the years he took the Denver Broncos to the Superbowl – which is still pretty low for a quarterback that’s discussed in the “greatest of all time” conversation.
The NFL runs on its quarterbacks, but Super Bowl success is reliant upon a dominant team, not a specific individual. The Eagles won last year’s Super Bowl because their team (and Fletcher Cox) was dominant, not because Nick Foles was their quarterback.
Having a quarterback on a rookie contract allows you to obtain the other assets necessary to build a championship-caliber team. The Dolphins aren’t going to be able to lock up Xavien Howard, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Davon Godchaux, Vincent Taylor, Jakeem Grant and Jerome Baker if they’re too busy spending $20m on a quarterback.
What This Means for Your Roster
If you’re planning on drafting a quarterback next year, then say goodbye to most of your favorite players. Even if they do get the pick right, and they have a franchise quarterback, it’s going to take some time before everything gets turned around (not like anyone would complain with the ‘franchise QB for veteran talent’ trade off). The quickest turnarounds the NFL has seen come in Year 2. The Los Angeles Rams with Jared Goff and the Eagles with Carson Wentz are the latest examples of this. Big Ben won a Super Bowl in Year 2. Russell Wilson won his in Year 2. Even our own Dan Marino made it to a Super Bowl in Year 2.
But you need a Super Bowl-caliber team around them to accomplish that, and it’s hard to say Miami has that right now. They’re a young team, but they aren’t dominant (yet).
Cameron Wake? Won’t be part of the turnaround
Reshad Jones? Won’t be around
A message from Cameron Wake.https://t.co/LxPaNYnaLL
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) May 8, 2016
In fact, it’s probably easier to list who will be around if Miami selects a quarterback in the 2019 NFL draft – figuring the team will see the full turnaround in 2020-2021:
Laremy Tunsil: Most likely, but you’re paying him to be a top-3 LT in this league
Kalen Ballage: By default, rookie deal
Jakeem Grant: If the team extends him and he develops hands softer than stone
Albert Wilson: If he’s still the multiple-trick pony he currently is
Kenny Stills: A speed receiver that’ll be close to 30; unlikely to be around
Charles Harris: If the Dolphins exercise his 5th-year option; currently unlikely
Davon Godchaux and/or Vincent Taylor: Do you have the money to extend both or are you just picking one?
Xavien Howard: Did you pay him?
Minkah Fitzpatrick: By default, rookie deal
Raekwon McMillan: Did Miami extend him?
Jerome Baker: By default, rookie deal
Mike Gesicki: By default, rookie deal
Bobby McCain: it’s likely he’s still around and on his current contract
John Denney: he’s immortal
Assuming all of the above players are kept (they won’t be), and taking John Denney’s immortality out, that’s 13 players out of a possible 52-man roster that remain from the currently constructed Dolphins squad; and 4 of them will still be on your team because they’re on their rookie deals.
Again, if you guaranteed me that Miami would find a franchise quarterback for the next 10 years at the expense of the current roster, I’d probably sign up for it every time.
If you thought the 2018 draft speculation was intense for Miami, just wait and see what the 2019 draft will bring. This topic is going to float around a lot, and we’re not going to get a clear-cut answer until the Dolphins make their selection next April. Until that selection is made, keep in mind all of the various aspects that go into this decision. It’s easy to say “give me a quarterback”, but the repercussions are vast and last for years.
This decision won’t come down to “if” Miami will take the risk; they’re going to. We just have to hope that they made the right selection. Otherwise, expect to see this post pop up again in 2021 – except with a bunch of different names (and John Denney).