Connect with us

Miami Dolphins

Free Agent Targets by Position for the 2020 Miami Dolphins

Travis Wingfield

Published

on

“We can do anything we want. Whether it’s free agency or the draft, we’ve positioned ourselves where we can do anything, or get whatever player we feel that will help us as soon as possible.” – Chris Grier, September 17, 2019

After a pair of home drubbings to kick off the 2019 season, the Miami Dolphins’ brass felt it necessary for newly appointed Executive Vice President Chris Grier to answer questions from the media. Questions about where exactly this team — a team that had lost those two games by a combined score of 102-10 — is going.

Grier spoke with clarity. He spoke with consistency to the message relayed to the masses when Stephen Ross cleaned house on New Year’s Eve. Miami’s empowered General Manager discussed the irrefutable offers made by Houston and Pittsburgh that sent promising young players in Laremy Tunsil and Minkah Fitzpatrick out of town.

The most revealing aspect of Grier’s availability, and the lone detour from the discussions of the grand plan to acquire many draft picks, was his proclamation about free agency.

“We’ll build very aggressively,” Grier said when asked if the front office will wait until the team is more established before spending big on the open market. “We’re not going to sit here on a bunch of money or anything.”

The pile of money accounts for roughly $150 million — fun coupons, as it were. With proverbial “road work” signs plastered throughout the roster, here are the best options at each position for Miami to explore.

Scheme fit, possibility of the player exiting his current team, resources the draft has to offer, and market value were all examined carefully when constructing this list. (Some data points provided by Pro Football Focus).

Quarterback: None

With Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen under contract next season, the need to support the imminent highly-drafted quarterback with a veteran can be handled in-house. Rosen certainly provides more upside on the field, but Fitzpatrick’s knowledge of the scheme and the league would better prepare the rookie for Sundays.

Rosen’s upside and significantly cheaper contract will probably outweigh the mentorship that Fitzpatrick can offer. The best case scenario would probably be to retain Fitzpatrick and peddle Rosen for a draft pick as close to the one the team gave up for him last April.

Running Back: Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
Previous Contract: UDFA Rookie Deal, $557K APY
Market Value: $5M APY (Dion Lewis, Duke Johnson deal)
Why He Might Be Available: Melvin Gordon’s return

Melvin Gordon’s holdout didn’t bear any fruit, but he’s back in the building and the Chargers could become incentivized to extend his contract. If they are, Ekeler likely hits the open market. His fit in the offense is seamless. The Dolphins want to pump the ball to the backs in the passing game, utilize the screen and feature backs that can pass protect.

On top of a 96% catch rate, six touchdowns, and an average of 6.13 yards per touch (10th in football) through four games, Ekeler is 9th in first downs via the rush, and hasn’t allowed a hit on his quarterback this season in pass protection. He leads all tailbacks in receiving yardage and total touchdowns.

According to Pro Football Focus, Ekeler is 26th among all backs in yards after contact average. He runs with exceptional balance and finishes runs with attitude. His lateral agility and elusiveness keeps the playbook open between all man and zone schemes.

He was a three-time academic All-American in college, and his testing numbers at his pro day were through the roof. Ekeler checks every box the Dolphins look for in a player.

Wide Receiver: Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos
Previous Contract: FA Deal worth $11M APY
Market Value: $10M APY, short-term (Tyler Boyd deal)
Why He Might Be Available: Antiquated scheme, no quarterback in Denver

Sanders turns 33-years-old in March, I’m perfectly aware. As the Dolphins are currently constructed, they need a technician of a route runner to run the inside routes and exploit linebackers and zone coverage. Devante Parker and Preston Williams are the trees on the outside, and the current production from the slot has been nil.

Sanders still gets it done with nuance. He’s a technician that attacks leverage and blind spots to uncover early in the pattern. Chad O’Shea wants to go empty from a variety of personnel packages, primarily 11 (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs). In that look, Sanders can draw two-way-go matchups inside and provide Miami’s rookie quarterback with a veteran security blanket.

Health has been a problem, but Sanders is back with a vengeance this year. He’s catching 67.6% of his targets for 13 yards per reception. His 2.04 yards-per-route-run mark ranks 21st among receivers with 20 targets this season.

Tight End: Mo Alie-Cox, Indianapolis Colts
Previous Contract: UDFA Rookie Deal, $525K APY
Market Value: $1.5M APY (Darren Fells deal)
Why He Might Be Available: Jack Doyle, possible re-signing Eric Ebron

Alie-Cox comes cheap because of the dying nature of his position. Inline blocking tight ends aren’t at the epidemic level of the fullback yet, but the money the league pays for those services would suggest it’s heading that way.

The 270-pound tight end is PFF’s 16th-graded run blocker and 8th-graded pass blocker among tight ends. In this offense, juxtaposition at tight end is vital. Durham Smythe has a role on the team, but if the front office wants to double down on hand cuffing Mike Gesicki (who I believe is a big part of the future plans), Alie-Cox is a logical option to be that link.

Offensive Tackle: George Fant, Seattle Seahawks
Previous Contract: Re-signed One-Year, $3.1M APY
Market Value: $3M APY (D.J. Fluker deal)
Why He Might Be Available: Already paying Duane Brown, playing sixth OL behind Brown and Germaine Ifedi

Not the marquee name you were looking for, certainly, but Fant falls in line with the Dolphins prototype at the position. He’s big, he’s long, and he has the athletic profile to grow into a dominant NFL tackle.

The wide wingspan (not accurately available online) is in line with Miami’s signings this offseason, but the athleticism is what sets him apart. Fant jumped 37 inches vertically, and 109 inches in the broad jump at his pro day. He blazed a 4.83-second forty-yard sprint in that workout as well.

Fant is a former basketball play still developing his game in year-four in the NFL. He’s the ball of clay that Miami can sign as competition at either tackle position. If he loses the job, he’s an adept swing tackle that can come onto the field in heavy personnel (sixth offensive lineman).

Offensive Line Interior: Brandon Scherff, Washington
Previous Contract: First-Round Rookie Deal, $5.3M APY
Market Value: $14M APY (Highest paid guard, Zack Martin)
Why He Might Be Available: Dan Snyder

Nobody wants to play in Washington these days. Reports are that, despite the club’s offer to Brandon Scherff, the two remain far apart from an agreement to extend Scherff’s stay in the nation’s capital.

Scherff is going to get paid, that’s what happens when top-shelf players hit the open market. If Joe Thuney shakes free in New England he’ll be the preferred option, but it sounds like the Patriots have no intentions of letting him escape.

With Scherff, the Dolphins would be getting the game’s premier run blocking right guard. The Iowa product plays with power. He offers enough lateral movement skills to bring that sheer strength out on the edge. He’s not the smoothest bender or pass protector, but he gets the job done.

Allowing a sack and three pressures through four games, a down-year for Scherff in pass protection would still be better than anything Miami currently has at the position. In 2018, Scherff surrendered one sack and just one additional hit on the Washington quarterbacks. He committed only two fouls, though it should be mentioned he only played 503 snaps.

The eight games Scherff missed last season brought his career total to 11 out of a possible 68. Scherff calls the torn pectoral “a fluke,” but he’ll have to prove that with a clean bill of health this season. He missed Giants game with an ankle injury, but is set to return this Sunday against the Patriots.

Defensive Edge: Efe Obada, Carolina Panthers
Previous Contract: International Pathway, $570K APY
Market Value: $3.5M APY (Barkevious Mingo deal)
Why He Might Be Available: Backup in Carolina, only 70 snaps this year

It’s time for Miami to start reaping the rewards of the development of other programs. Obada, a product of the NFL’s International Pathway Program, is a perfect fit for the edge position in this Dolphins defense. At 6-foot-6 and 265 pounds, he has the size to take on the outside gap in the run game, but also the explosiveness to win one-on-one pass rush situations.

With 35 5/8” arms, Obada displays the heavy hands that Patrick Graham and Marion Hobby prefer from their defensive linemen. He’s off to a slow start this year in the production department, and his playing time is a big reason for that. Obada has played only 70 snaps, but the strides he’s made against the run from last year are tangible.

Obada is certainly on the budget end of this position group. Jadeveon Clowney would be the real prize, but the Dolphins can’t spend top-of-the-market money at every position. Obada did apply pressure on opposing quarterbacks 14 times last season on just 108 pass rush reps.

Defensive Interior: Adam Butler, New England Patriots
Previous Contract: UDFA Rookie Deal, $557K APY
Market Value: $5M (Malcolm Brown deal)
Why He Might Be Available: Talent and production all over the defense, especially the DL

Adam Butler is one of the many examples of the New England model at work. He arrives as an undrafted free agent, gives the club three years of production, and then departs to beef up the Patriots compensatory cupboard.

Butler checks many of the boxes Miami wants on the interior defensive line. Most importantly, he’s already playing in the same scheme he’d transition to upon signing in Miami. He’s contributing in both phases (run and pass) in his third season. Butler has already racked nine QB pressures (3 sacks) and nine run-stops.

Without an invitation to the combine, Butler had to dazzle scouts at his pro day, and boy did he. He’s not the most impressively built player, or the fastest, but his 7.5-second three-cone time would’ve been second best in 2017 in Indianapolis. Those quick feet make him an ideal sub-package interior rusher.

With one pressure every 10 pass rush snaps, and nearly a run-stop every other running down, Butler might be driving his price to steep levels on the DT market.

Linebacker: Kyler Fackrell, Green Bay Packers
Previous Contract: Re-signed one-year deal, $2.1M
Market Value: $3.75M (Markus Golden deal)
Why He Might Be Available: Green Bay has three OLBs in the top 16 for pay rate (Smith, Smith, Gary).

After a career-year in 2018, Fackrell has been relegated to backup duty in Green Bay. Giving way to high-priced free agents Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, Fackrell has been reduced to a 30% player (down from 58% last season).

When Miami hired Patrick Graham, one could assume he would bring the 3-3-5 bear package that the Packers regularly run. One of the focal points of Graham’s linebacker’s corps in Green Bay was Fackrell defending the edge and rushing the passer.

Fackrell has nine pressures this season on just 37 pass rush snaps. He’s built similarly to Kyle Van Noy, and he could fill that considerable missing piece to this Dolphins defensive adaptation of the New England scheme.

Last year, Fackrell had 23 quarterback pressures (13 hits, 10.5 sacks) and 27 run-stops. He misses to many tackles, but the tape shows a player that can do his job within the scheme and provide pressure — that’s worth a lucrative free agent deal.

Cornerback: Byron Jones, Dallas Cowboys
Previous Contract: First-Round Rookie Deal, $2.2M APY
Market Value: $13.5M APY (A.J. Bouye deal)
Why He Might Be Available: Too many mouths to feed in Dallas

The job that Brian Flores had in mind for Minkah Fitzpatrick isn’t a carbon copy of what Jones would do in Miami, but his versatility is what Fitzpatrick was billed to be as a college prospect. Jones, a corner by day, safety by night, is one of the best defensive backs in football.

Presently a perimeter cornerback, Jones ranks 19th in yards per coverage snap among all corners with at least 75 coverage reps. He’s allowing just 50% completion rate and just 5.5 yards per pass. He has four stops in the running game, and his time at safety will showcase how good he is defending the run — he has just one missed tackle this season.

He fits the prototype with length, long-speed, agility, and the ability to move all over the formation. Nearly exclusively a corner this year, and in 2018, Jones primary position in 2017 was free safety. He only played 396 snaps at that spot and was in the box or in the slot for an additional 313 snaps.

In this defense, a scheme that requires safeties to come down and cover, and asks everyone to support in the run game, there isn’t a better fit than Byron Jones.

Safety: Vonn Bell, New Orleans Saints
Previous Contract: Second-Round Rookie Deal, $1M APY
Market Value: $8.5M APY (Malcolm Jenkins, Tony Jefferson deals)
Why He Might Be Available: Too many mouths to feed in New Orleans

Miami can finally get out of the awful Reshad Jones contract after this season without a severe, punitive cost. After that, the club could opt to offer Bell a similar deal and get better production from the position. Fulfilling the Patrick Chung role in the defense, Bell is as instinctive and diverse between man and zone coverage. He plays with the alpha mentality that changes the temperature in the locker room.

He’s not the fleetest of foot, but condensing his responsibilities and tasking him with tight-ends, robber coverage, and restricting him to the hook zones and flats can mitigate that shortcoming.

Bell was PFF’s third-highest graded run defending safety last season. He racked up 29 run-stops and 82 total tackles. This year, he’s the belle of the ball — number one on PFF. He’s on track to top those 29 stops (8 in the first 4 games), and he’s already matched his pass breakup production from last year.

His lack of ball production could give Miami a discount, and they’ll need to pair him with a rangy free safety, but there’s an immediate fit in this scheme.

Free agency, in the NFL, is a year-long courting process. Despite all the tampering rules and restrictions, it’s the job of the agent to gage the market for his client, and you can bet that’s currently underway. In this exercise, I spent roughly $65 million. Granted, Miami won’t be able to sign everybody, but this gives you an idea of the prototype they’ll shop for at each position, and how the team can manage its budget in this imminent spending spree.

Chris Grier promised to be aggressive, to attack the many holes on this roster with free agent cash and draft picks. These players listed above all fit a need with a ready-made plan in place to get production out of every single one should they put pen to paper in Miami.

None of this is a guarantee; it’s an inexact science. The only guarantee is that this team will look almost unrecognizable from the one we’re watching in 2019. And to take that a bridge further, the roster will be entirely unidentifiable from the final year of the Adam Gase regime.

I get the sense that’s just fine with Dolphins fans.

@WingfieldNFL

Advertisement
1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Avatar

    SS

    October 3, 2019 at 3:52 pm

    You spent money where I think they will…CB and G. And, I believe a relatively modestly priced interior DL that is a scheme fit is just what the dr. ordered. Could be cuz I just saw him against us, but Ekeler would be a great fit.

    If they’re following the Pats blueprint, I think they’re willing to spend $$ on CB, as in their scheme being able to manage WR well enables the front 7 to be more effective than their collective talent might suggest.

    Paying big bucks for a guard might not be the Pats way, but if we’ll be starting a young QB and not Tom Brady, I’m not sure we have the luxury of developing 5th rounders and UDFA on the interior OL right now. That may be more of an option in a couple years.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Miami Dolphins

Tua Yards Away, One Step Closer – Miami-Washington Week 6 Recap

Travis Wingfield

Published

on

Dolphins 2-Point Conversion Fails, Team Falls to 0-5

It’s difficult to imagine a better game-script for the Dolphins fan that finds him/herself in the cumbersome position of rooting for better draft positioning. A chance to win on the game’s final play, a strong effort and overall improvement, but the ultimate prize remains unspoiled for a team in transition. For the first time this season, the box score didn’t tip heavily in the opposition’s favor.

 

Stat Dolphins Washington
Total Yards 271 311
Rushing 84 145
Passing 187 166
Penalties 5 (45 yards) 6 (56 yards)
3rd / 4thDown 5/16 (31.3%) 2/11 (18.2%)
Sacks For 0 5
TOP 32:39 27:21

 

The Dolphins were dead in the water under the direction of second-year quarterback Josh Rosen. His three quarters of work produced a pair of interception, five sacks and three points from the Dolphins offense.

Enter Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The fired-up Fitzmagic passed for 132 fourth quarter yards en route to two Dolphin touchdown drives. The final play of the game — a failed two-point conversion dropped by Kenyan Drake — was the third bizarre play in critical situations during Miami’s ferocious surge.

A common play in today’s league — especially from Chad O’Shea’s New England influence — Drake short-motioned into the formation behind a pair of bunched receivers. The throw was a little bit off Drake’s back hip, but the back never secured the ball, ending the play before it had ever a chance.

On an earlier third down and nine, nine-year veteran Center Daniel Kilgore rolled a snap to Fitzpatrick that killed the drive. The possession prior, Fitzpatrick threw a hook-up route over the middle to Mike Gesicki, who had already been thrown to the ground. If any of those three plays is executed, Miami probably comes out of this game with a victory.

Though out-gained for the fifth-consecutive game, the Dolphins moved the chains 21 times to Washington’s 13 first downs. Miami also won the time-of-possession battle for the first time, and scored multiple touchdowns in a game for the first time.

There was enough energy and excitement to fulfil the quota for an admirable Dolphins effort, but the scoreboard not only keeps Miami in the driver’s seat for the first pick of the draft, it essentially gives the Dolphins a two-game buffer over Washington.

With strength of schedule serving as the only draft order tie-breaker, Washington’s likely greater S.O.S. means that if both teams finished with the same number of victories, the higher pick would go to Miami.

The only team left in Miami’s way is the 0-6 Cincinnati Bengals.

Let’s get to the individuals.

Quarterbacks

Last week, on The Locked On Dolphins Podcast, I referenced an article that featured quotes from prominent NFL Draft busts at the quarterback position. Joey Harrington and Brady Quinn discussed the difficult circumstances surrounding their respective insertions into the league. To summarize, they both feel that situations can ruin quarterbacks.

That feels prevalent in the case of Josh Rosen. From an armchair evaluator that was never big on Rosen’s game, the flaws he’s exhibiting have been developed. Consistently lifting his feet upon release, stepping out of clean platforms and into traffic, the kid has no trust in his surrounding parts or his own ability to dissect the defense.

His timing remains late, he’s not managing the pocket and finding space even at the level he was three weeks ago, and everything looks like a challenge for him in this offense.

Rosen will start going forward, I suppose, but this is broken quarterback that needs some time in the shop.

Fitzpatrick was excellent. He provided that classic, bearded spark that rejuvenates the team in a pinch. He was on-time, accurate, and navigated the same pass protection with no issues (no sacks, no turnovers).

Running Backs

The most interesting factoid from this position group came from Kenyan Drake’s post-game presser. Mark Walton began the game as Miami’s starting back, and Drake revealed that the two-point conversion play call had been repped all week by the Dolphins apparent new starter, and former Hurricane, Mark Walton.

Walton, after blowing a pass protection assignment on Miami’s first possession, was the most creative runner for the Dolphins. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry, a season-high for a Phins back, on six carries. Walton’s production was greater in the passing game. He caught another five for 43 yards, giving him 75 yards from scrimmage on the game.

Drake consistently churned out yards as well (10 for 40). He added six receptions for 30 yards — he and Walton’s 15 targets made up more than a third of Miami’s target-share.

Then, there’s the forgotten man, Kalen Ballage. He had three carries and no pass targets. Though Ballage bulldozed into the end zone on a goal line plunge, he has been almost entirely phased out of the offense. He’s essentially a short yardage back at this stage — can’t catch, can’t play tailback in this offense.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

It was a lot of fun to see the Dolphins receivers make some plays in a functioning offense. Devante Parker’s touchdown reception was an extremely difficult catch sliding into the end zone (go out in your backyard and try to catch a ball at your knee caps in a full sprint).

Preston Williams catch-rate remains atrocious (caught 2 of 6 targets Sunday), but his 21-yard stab on Miami’s final touchdown drive put the offense in scoring range.

Mike Gesicki is coming on, and I will not shut up about out from now until further notice. The athletic ability to catch contested balls up the seam should not be underplayed, and that catch he made to start that final drive was a godsend for this offense.

We’ll have more to say about the other tight ends in the film room session on Wednesday’s podcast.

Offensive Line

Another week of shuffling, another week of heading back to the drawing board — or is it? With Rosen in the game, the line was manhandled (five sacks). Once Fitzpatrick entered, the quarterback remained clean, and the offense produced at a rate better than league average (13 points on four drives, more than a point better than NFL average).

Jesse Davis was a tough watch at left tackle before the injury, and things did not get better working on the right side. He’s frequently a beat slow, and can’t gain the necessary depth to take on elite speed rushers. And calling Ryan Kerrigan’s speed rush elite at this stage is probably generous.

Michael Deiter remains a considerable work in progress. His tendency to get out over his skies, which makes him vulnerable to tackles that can rush effectively with lateral agility, shows up on tape each week.

J’Marcus Webb continues to struggle with speed rushes off the blindside edge, but that should be expected. After all, Webb was a street free agent. Miami found a way to help him as much as possible, but the leaks from the other side caused Miami to dial up even more max protection.

Isaiah Prince is serving the role that I always thought was best for him — sixth lineman when the formation goes heavy. I’m intrigued to look at the job he did in that role today, but I don’t have that evaluation ready just yet.

Defensive Line

Christian Wilkins is getting better as this season goes along, and that should realistically be the most important development on the roster. Wilkins’ ability to collapse pockets from the inside will determine what kind of line this group is going to be on the other side of the rebuild. He’s not getting many opportunities to do it just yet, but he’s showing up every week with impressive reps against good players.

Taco Charlton has replaced Charles Harris at the left defensive end position. We’ll have snap counts tomorrow, but Charlton is a fundamentally sound edge defender that typically funnels things back inside — something Harris struggled to grasp for 2.5 years.

John Jenkins put a nice move on Washington Left Guard Ereck Flowers, but was quiet for the rest of the game.

Linebackers

Raekwon McMillan is probably the team’s MVP to this point. He’s a decisive run defender that finds his fit and explodes through contact. This staff has discovered the best route for McMillan to be an effective player, and he’s rising to that challenge.

Jerome Baker was better in this game. He was able to put pressure on the quarterback at least a couple of times from my count, including a nifty inside move on Washington’s Left Tackle.

Vince Biegel is an interesting rush-package player — he was in the Washington backfield at times.

Deon Lacey was with Miami in camp a few summers back. He went to Buffalo and contributed on special teams, but he’s back in South Florida doing the same thing for the Dolphins.

Defensive Backs

Xavien Howard practiced throughout the week, but didn’t play Sunday, and the impact was palpable. Washington Rookie Terry McLaurin made big plays in Howard’s absence, including a touchdown against his replacement, Ken Webster.

Eric Rowe had his best game as a Dolphin. He showed recovery speed and made plays on the football a couple of times.

The same was true of rookie Nik Needham. After his call-up from the practice squad, Needham had a pass breakup and didn’t allow any catches on the day.

Reshad Jones was active against the Washington run-heavy attack. He picked up nine tackles and was a regular in the backfield.

Bobby McCain’s had a good day that included a crucial pass break-up in the end zone, but it was his profanity-laced interview post-game that caught reporter’s attention. Expressing this frustration should come as no surprise for a team captain that pours his all into this game.

Recap

The Fitzpatrick jolt should provide fans with some confidence in the coaching and the plan going forward. Suddenly, the passing concepts were effective, Miami found chunk plays to the backs, and Gesicki was unlocked up the seam.

Brian Flores’ and Patrick Graham’s defensive structure has been sound for the most part this season, and the defense’s effort was good enough to win. Washington scored 17 points on 12 possessions Sunday. The rush scheme, and consequent effort to fill those vacated areas, made life difficult on Washington’s antiquated offensive attack.

The Dolphins simply have to get better in multiple areas from a talent standpoint. The quarterback play, the offensive line, the interior rotation and edge rush, and secondary all need an infusion of players. The draft capital will allow Miami to put premium assets into those groups, then, and only then, can we adequately judge this Dolphins staff.

The Steelers are railroading the Chargers currently, so the dream for a pair of top-three picks will be put on hold, for now.

Miami’s battle with Cincinnati for the top pick could come down to a week 16 showdown in South Florida. The Bengals do have dates with Pittsburgh, the Jets, Dolphins, and up-and-down Browns to round out the season.

Given the Dolphins weak S.O.S., a victory shouldn’t interrupt the Miami’s collision course with the first pick next April. Washington’s remaining slate features only two more losing teams — it’s difficult to find another win for a team that survived a last-minute scare from the NFL’s unanimous doormat.

A win today would’ve made the path to the first pick treacherous. The loss instead, however, keeps Miami in the catbird seat to land Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa.

@WingfieldNFL

Continue Reading

NFL Draft

Scouting College Football’s Top 2020 QB Prospects – Week 7

Travis Wingfield

Published

on

Recapping Week 7 of the College Football Season

During the college season, here on Locked On Dolphins, we’re going to keep an eye on quarterbacks all throughout the country. Our primary focus will be on the big four, the options that Miami will likely choose from with an early pick in the 2020 draft.

Those quarterbacks are:

Tua Tagovailoa Scouting Report
Jake Fromm Scouting Report
Justin Herbert Scouting Report
Jordan Love Scouting Report

2019 Week 1 Recap
2019 Week 2 Recap
2019 Week 3 Recap
2019 Week 4 Recap
2019 Week 5 Recap
2019 Week 6 Recap

*LSU’s Joe Burrow has been added to the prospect watch list.

We’ll go in chronological order from when the games were played.

Justin Herbert vs. Colorado,Win 45-3
Stats: 18/33 (54.5%) 261 yards (7.9 YPA) 2 TDs

Regardless of what happens throughout Justin Herbert’s professional career, he will flash moments of brilliance. The consistency of those spurts, however, remains uncertain. When the defense reacts according to the play call, it’s over. Herbert’s ability to quickly drive the ball down the field excites scouts everywhere.

The issue of inconsistency remains, well, consistent. Lapses in accuracy, proper mechanical alignment and anticipatory throws raise concerns over Herbert’s ability to translate at the next level. When there’s no urgency, everything is rosy. Herbert can adequately process and adjust his throw type when he’s free of adverse circumstances.

When Herbert is forced to speed things up — get away from an unexpected free rusher, anticipate a route opening up against the leverage of the defense — errors occur. Balls on the wrong hip/shoulder, late throws into tight windows, there’s a lack of trust in what he sees post-snap.

The upside is difficult to ignore, but those issues have to become hardwired corrections for Herbert to ever realize that potential.

Jake Fromm vs. South Carolina, Loss 20-17 (OT)
Stats: 28/51 (54.9%) 295 yards (5.78 YPA) 1TD, 3 INTs

The first 54 minutes of this game were a struggle from Fromm and the Georgia offense. After early success that has Fromm accomplishing whatever he wanted against the Gamecock defense — man or zone — Fromm’s decision making and location went south during a 42-minute scoring drought.

The good version of Fromm showed anticipation, timing and location on point, as they all typically are. Fromm’s interception on a throwaway attempt to close out the first half started a cascade of poor football. His accuracy waned, his normally perfect communication with the receivers went awry, and Georgia trailed with just six minutes to play at home against an inferior football team. Fromm also lost a fumble on a failed quarterback-center exchange on the doorstep of the red zone.

Executing a 96-yard, game-tying drive when he had to have it speaks highly to Fromm’s character. The NFL will present adversity, and Fromm has showcased the ability to overcome hurdles. Still, at the end of the day, he made too mistakes for Georgia to win this game.

One week after elevating his draft stock ahead of Justin Herbert and Jordan Love, Fromm comes back to earth and makes one thing abundantly clear — there’s a big gap between Tua and the rest of this class.

Tua Tagovailoa at Texas A&M, Win 47-28
Stats: 21/34 (61.8%) 293 yards (8.62 YPA) 4 TDs, 1 INT

On a day where Tua wasn’t as finely tuned as we’ve come to expect, he surpasses A.J. McCarron for the career touchdown passes record at Alabama with another four touchdown day. Tua’s second touchdown was a classic example of his pre-snap acumen, post-snap mechanical alignment, and precise ball location against an A&M blitz. Quickly getting to his spot and setup, Tua throws it right in behind the blitz and right on the bullseye for a big play.

The fourth touchdown was a fantastic anticipation strike to Henry Ruggs. Tagovailoa’s trust in his own eyes and processor allows him to anticipate better than any passer in the country.

He also showcased his fluid pocket mobility. Whether it’s escaping, or climbing up and wading through the trash, the only thing more dangerous than Tua on-script, is the improvising version of Tua.

The trust can lead to some mistakes and easy turnovers, however. Tua’s interception was a carbon copy of one of his INTs in the SEC Championship Game in 2018 against Georgia. Tua checked his backside read and attacked play side with the information he gathered. He was wrong in thinking the safety was bailing out. Instead, the safety robbed a dig route from Jeudy, and Tua was late with the football for an easy pick.

There were additional accuracy issues (available in the video thread) in the game, but not by a significant margin. Typically, when he makes a mistake, he erases the wrongdoing on the next play. Tua can play better, certainly, but I sometimes wonder if we hold him to an unrealistic standard.

A career 9:1 TD:INT ratio will do that (81 TDs, 9 INTs).

Joe Burrow vs. Florida, Win 42-28
Stats: 21/24 (87.5%) 293 yards (12.2 YPA) 3 TDs

Kirk Herbstreit said it best early fourth quarter after Joe Burrow beat another Gators blitz. Herbie referred to Burrow having all the answers for the looks Florida threw at him, and it led to a strong, efficient performance.

Burrow not only threw on-time and on-target within the structure of the offense, he navigated murky pockets and extended plays with big results.

Burrow’s growth in year-two in this offensive system makes for a master attacking the middle, intermediate portion of the field. Dropping the ball in behind linebackers and underneath the safeties, Burrow’s accuracy on crossing routes leads to big plays after the catch for the talented Tigers receivers.

Burrow forced his way into this discussion. The big four have become the big five and Burrow could wind up top-three if he continues this success.

Recap

We’re entering the portion of the season where we can begin to compare common opponents. Fromm earned his way into QB2 status with steady, consistent play through six weeks, but Fromm had his ugliest showing of the year Saturday.

That three-interception performance comes against a defense that Tua carved up for 444 yards and five touchdowns. The already significant gap between QB1 and QB1 increased after the performances of Tagovailoa and Fromm this weekend.

Herbert has nothing to prove against inferior foes. His physical talents are too much for poor defense, especially units that are poorly coached like Colorado. For Herbert to enter QB2 status, he’ll have to show out in adverse circumstances — something he really hasn’t done in his career.

Love was off this week; perhaps the bye week we’ll supplement his familiarity in yet another system. Burrow has passed all of his tests this season, but he still has a way to go before he’s even considered a one-year wonder.

Half way through the college football season, my quarterback big board goes:

  1. Tua Tagoavailoa
  2. Jake Fromm
  3. Jordan Love
  4. Joe Burrow
  5. Justin Herbert

@WingfieldNFL

Additional Prospect Video Threads

Alabama Linebacker, Anfernee Jennings

Oklahoma Center, Creed Humphrey

Oklahoma Wide Receiver, Ceedee Lamb

Oklahoma Linebacker, Kenneth Murray

LSU Edge, K’Lavon Chaisson

Penn State Edge, Yetur Gross-Matos

Continue Reading

Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins Aren’t Tanking, They Just Suck

Jason Hrina

Published

on

Image Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Plenty of people want to tell you that the Miami Dolphins are tanking, and depending on how they’re looking at it, they’re either entirely right or woefully wrong.

You see, each player on this football team is attempting to put forth their best effort. They are trotting onto the field branding aqua and orange with the intent of being as successful as they can be.

There may be particular instances where a player prioritizes their health over a few extra yards, but overall, they aren’t going out there just to collect a paycheck.

These people have played football their entire lives. It’s insulting to assume they aren’t trying to maximize the one thing they’ve passionately performed since they were a toddler.

It’s also insulting to assume that this fanbase is so oblivious and naive that rooting to lose means they are not a “real fan”.

When linebacker Jerome Baker called out Dolphins fans (that are actively rooting for a “tank”), he was making a fair point, but he did so without acknowledging what these fans are actually rooting for deep down.

There isn’t a single fan that genuinely enjoys losing. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to tell you that fans are rooting for one miserable season with the hope that it breeds 10 successful ones.

But Baker is right, the players are performing as hard as they can. They’re pridefully going out there and trying to build their resumes for the other 31 teams to see. These snaps will be meaningless in a few weeks (when the Dolphins are unofficially eliminated from the playoffs), but you can’t sell that to a person looking to boost (or, heck, just ensure) a paycheck going forward.

The thing is, the performance that these players are putting out there is the reason why Miami is not just 0-4, but historically one of the worst teams in NFL history.

The front office may have helped create this mess, but they aren’t the reason why people assume the players aren’t trying.

A Surprising Development

2019 was supposed to be a season filled with growth and progress. Establish who your building blocks are, and mold them into a youthful core that can lead the new franchise quarterback to victory.

But all of that growth and progress we expected to see has been virtually nonexistent. In fact, there have been more “surprises” than there have been developments that we can rely on. And while that’s great for the players we had lower expectations for, it speaks minimally for either the players we expected to develop, or the coaching staff we expected to develop them.

Raekwon McMillan has been Miami’s best linebacker so far this season. Though we have to provide the caveat that it comes with a limited snap count, McMillan has been a force in the running game. Did McMillan have too much on his plate last year? Did he finally (fully) recover from his torn ACL in 2017? Is he flourishing without the expectations? Is this really just a flash in the pan?

It’s hard to pinpoint why McMillan has improved so much this season, but this is a welcomed site to see. I’m not expecting 2020 starting middle linebacker or even an elite talent from the former second-round pick, but McMillan has gone from an afterthought to a necessity on this 2019 team.

With just 121 snaps (compared to Sam Eguavoen‘s 251 and Jerome Baker’s 279), I hope defensive coordinator Patrick Graham finds a way to incorporate McMillan a bit more.

After watching the Washington Redskins and the Cincinnati Bengals for 5 weeks, fans are legitimately concerend that Josh Rosen will win too many games this year. While judging Rosen has always been one of the primary objectives of 2019, it was only 3 weeks ago that we expected Ryan Fitzpatrick to start a majority of the season because Rosen wasn’t picking up (or processing) the playbook well enough.

If it weren’t for so many dropped passes, Rosen would have a handful of highlights that make you think he’s the guy. Instead, those drops may be an omen that the Dolphins franchise quarterback isn’t currently on the roster.

But this is where the surprising storylines end. There have been plenty of other surprising developments in 2019, but none of them have been good. It’s these (lack of) developments that further explain why everyone believes the Dolphins are tanking.

Lack of Player Development

It all started somewhat shockingly before the season began when Vincent Taylor was cut. The former 6th-round pick was expected to be a starting defensive tackle for the next couple of years; instead, he was removed from the roster entirely with little explanation why.

Different coaching staffs have different philosophies and playing styles, but Taylor was a productive player with plenty of potential. Whether it was his attitude or the shape he was in when he reported to camp, Miami found a reason to remove a budding talent. Can’t blame the players for taking talent off the roster.

Linebacker Sam Eguavoen was expected to become a future starting linebacker for this team. And while he’s still raw, he hasn’t shown the same level of potential that fellow former CFL transfer Cameron Wake displayed when he joined Miami.

Next to John Denney, Jason Sanders was the only player you had unwavering confidence in.

Sanders has missed as many kicks through 4 games than he did in all of 2018. After making 18 of 20 kicks (and 35 of 36 PATs) in 2018, Sanders has made just 4 of 7 FGs so far this season. Are we adding kicker to the list of holes this team has to plug in 2020?

Jerome Baker hasn’t lived up to the preseason hype. Is it the extra work stacked on his plate? Is it just a sophomore slump?

We expected Baker to be a jack-of-all-trades linebacker who could cover the pass, stunt the run and rush the quarterback. So far, he seems a bit over his head. Granted, he receives minimal help around him, but this defensive front isn’t that much weaker than last season’s.

It’s safe to say that we all expected Baker to be a bit better at this point. If you’re going to “call out” the fanbase for cheering on long term success at the expense of short term misery, you better make sure your performance gives those fans a reason to think otherwise.

If Baker was meant to do everything up front, Bobby McCain was expected to be a Swiss army knife in the secondary. Not only has that experiment been subpar, but it appears more and more like McCain is a player without a position rather than a player that can do it all. It just makes me wonder what McCain “could have been” if the coaching staff left him in his natural slot cornerback position all these years.

After receiving a 4-year, $24m contract extension this offseason, Jakeem Grant has gone from a threatening #3 receiver – and a menacing kick returner – to a player that becomes cringeworthy when the ball is in the air. There isn’t a single person reading this that is confident when the ball is headed in Grant’s direction. Yet, just last month we felt we had a competent wide receiver for the next 3+ years.

There was LOTS of hype around Kalen Ballage when camp broke this offseason. He looked faster, quicker, more-toned and ready to take the #1 running back role from Kenyan Drake. Instead, Ballage has contributed more touchdowns to the opposing team than he has recorded himself. His 1.5 yards-per-carry (YPC) isn’t entirely his fault, as the offensive line in front of him is pedestrian at best, but that logic doesn’t seem to fit Drake’s 3.6 YPC or Mark Walton‘s 3.9 YPC.

I don’t need to tell you that Ballage has been a disappointment, I think we’ve all come to that conclusion the moment he ducked away from an RB screen pass coming his way.

What the Fans Want

Fans are tired of witnessing performances like this.

Every team has draft picks that flame out, but the Dolphins seem to load up on under-performing players. Is it this team’s “culture”? Is it terrible ownership? Is it terrible scouting?

Easily enough, 20 years of mediocrity can be summed up by the quarterback position. And right now, there are two entities that have identified that obtaining an elite quarterback solves ineptitude: fans and the Front Office.

If you were to say that the players are tanking, you’d be terribly wrong. If you were to say that the intellectual minds that make decisions for the Miami Dolphins are tanking, you are absolutely right.

You don’t trade away a cornerstone left tackle, your best wide receiver, your most-experience linebacker, and a handful of other assets if you’re trying to win as many games as possible.

Reshad Jones and Xavien Howard may not miss as many games if every game was crucial.

These are active decisions made (or heavily suggested) by the Front Office. They’re not asking the players to under-perform, they’re doing a good job of that themselves.

When all is said and done, it’s possible this coaching staff is the reason for the lack of development. They could all be in over their heads, and Brian Flores is just a temporary band-aid that allows the next coach to reap the benefits of stocked draft picks and abundant cap space.

I understand that it’s deflating to watch your team’s fanatics root against you, but their apathy isn’t the most disappointing part of the 2019 season. Give the fans a reason to cheer, and you might actually be reciprocated with applause.

Continue Reading
Advertisement

LATEST

Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending