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Miami Dolphins

My Money is on the Miami Dolphins Making the Playoffs

Jason Hrina

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Image Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

In a league full of parity, there is none.

Sold on the belief that the NFL annually turns over playoff teams, that thought process is both accurate and a white lie. Sure, new teams enter the fray each postseason, but atop the mountain sits the same perpetrators year-in and year-out.

So after annihilating any positive perception I have at winning some free money, I’m going to make one of the most asinine statements of this offseason: I am about to bet $50 on the Miami Dolphins making the playoffs.

Vegas Odds:
(+1100) = makes playoffs
(-2500) = misses playoffs

To clarify for my non-gambling brethren, if I bet $100 on Miami making the playoffs, I would win $1100. On the contrary, if I bet on the Dolphins missing the playoffs, I would need to bet $2500 just to win $100.

Unless you have an insane amount of money (in which case, my college debt says hi), you have the confidence of a honey badger, or you like to seek non-fatal thrills so badly that you have no problem throwing your savings at a potential $100 win, no one needs a doctorate degree to tell you that betting on the -2500 is probably a worse idea than betting on the +1100.

Doesn’t mean betting on the +1100 is a good idea either, but having to forgo one Saturday night at the bar is worth the potential of winning a free vacation, and I’m going to tell you why:

Turnover History

First, let’s take a look at just how frequently the NFL turns over its playoff teams.

As of 2010, 30 of out a possible 32 teams have made the playoffs at least once (sorry, Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans). Of those 30 teams that have made it, 24 of those teams have made the postseason multiple times; 9 teams in the AFC and all 15 teams in the NFC.

Below is a breakdown of the number of new teams that have entered the postseason each season. To explain: in 2011, 3 new teams made the postseason in both the AFC and NFC. In 2012, 1 new AFC team (that wasn’t in the 2011 playoffs) made the postseason.

Since we’re talking about our beloved Miami Dolphins and the chances they have at making the postseason, we’re going to focus a bit more heavily on the AFC side. As you can see in the chart above, an average of 2 new teams make the playoffs every season in the AFC.

In 2018, the following AFC teams made the playoffs: the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way up front and declare the Chiefs and Patriots playoff teams for 2019 – it would take a pretty catastrophic collapse for either front runner to completely whiff on even a Wildcard spot. This means that the Miami Dolphins are up against the Colts, Texans, Chargers, Ravens as well as the rest of the AFC.

Going through each division, it’s safe to say the following non-playoff teams are currently “better” than Miami: the Browns, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars and Oakland Raiders. Most Dolphins fans and “experts” around the league would say that teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals are easily better than Miami, but I scoff at such an assumption.

The Titans are relying on a quarterback who seems to annually get injured (Ryan Tannehill) and an underwhelming #2-overall pick (Marcus Mariota). The Jaguars are hoping their overpaid backup can transform into a franchise quarterback (Nick Foles). The Raiders are a bigger circus than the Jets. The Steelers lost two of the biggest offensive playmakers the league has seen the past few years (Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown). The Bengals are…well…the Bengals. And the Browns are the only legitimate threat – likely to win their declining division.

This gives us 3 of our 4 division winners: the Chiefs, Patriots and the Browns. The last division winner? Either the Texans or the Colts; with the other team likely making the Wildcard.

On paper, that leaves 1 playoff spot available to a completely wide-open field of AFC teams…but the league isn’t run on paper. Using the 2017 and 2018 seasons as an example, who thought the Raiders would go 4-12 with “franchise” quarterback Derek Carr and hall of fame running back Marshawn Lynch? Who thought the Jaguars and their top-3 defense would go 5-11?

Teams face unseen scrutiny every season; and as Dolphins fans, we’re familiar with such changes. After making the playoffs in 2016 with a 10-6 record, the future looked bright and multiple playoff berths seemed certain. But one injury eliminates any hope a team has, and we are still 6, long months away from the NFL postseason beginning. Anything can happen to any of these teams.

Does any of this enhance the Dolphins chances at making the playoffs? Not at all. But it does afford us an opportunity to notice how other NFL teams may fail to make the playoffs, giving two teams a chance at squeezing in.

So what confidence do we have in Miami making the playoffs?

Confidence Level: Potential Vacation

Without playing a single game, it’s noticeable how much more prepared and knowledgeable the Dolphins coaching staff is under Brian Flores compared to Adam Gase.

Gase seemed to be the most knowledgeable man on his staff; and that’s not a compliment. Vance Joseph and Matt Burke turned in underwhelming performances as defensive coordinators, and Dowell Loggains was about as productive as Gase was as an offensive coordinator – enough to make Miami the 31st-ranked offense in 2018.

Under Flores, Miami already has the benefit of recruiting Jim Caldwell, a former head coach who took his Colts and Lions teams to to the playoffs 4 out of 6 possible seasons – and went to a Super Bowl his rookie year as Colts head coach – as well as a former NFL Executive of the Year in Reggie McKenzie.

Comparing this roster to the 2016 playoff team, Miami hasn’t downgraded all that much. In fact, you could argue that the 2019 team is better than the 2016 team:

Note: Green = top performer at the position; Yellow = average performer; Red = poor performer

Frankly, these positional changes seem like upgrades to me.

Stats tell a different story, but Kenyan Drake is just as likely to produce as much as Jay Ajayi did during his infamous 2016 season. Jarvis Landry may be the best receiver the Dolphins have had this century, but the overall position group that includes Albert Wilson and a more-experienced DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant means the 2019 roster has a better chance at being more productive.

2016 may have featured a better offensive line by name, but Laremy Tunsil was trying to learn a new position while Branden Albert was on his way out – all while 2/5 of that line was a turnstile, just like how most of this 2019 line will be.

2016 featured future hall of famers Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh, but the trio of Davon Godchaux, Vincent Taylor and Christian Wilkins should be just as productive as the defensive line Miami put out there that playoff year.

The 2019 linebacking corps are far-and-away better, and the secondary, at worst, is just as good as the 2016 squad.

It’s not that I firmly believe the 2019 Miami Dolphins are a playoff team; it’s more a component of the fact that anything can happen in the NFL. While we’re all stuck on the Dolphins being one of the 5-worst teams in the NFL, compared to the 2016 team that “overachieved”, this team has an equal chance to make the playoffs. Taking into account the head coaching change alone, why isn’t there more of a belief that overachieving is a realistic possibility?

Is this the wisest decision I’ve ever made? Heck, no! Am I about to hand over the easiest $50 Vegas will ever win? Most likely. But the light at the end of the tunnel may be too good to pass up. Either I’m going to remember all of you when the Miami Dolphins pay for a future vacation, or you’ll find me at the local bar surrounded by gloating Jets fans drinking my sorrows away.

Growing up a passionate Dolphins fan in Jets territory, Jason learned from an early age that life as a Dolphins fan wasn’t going to be easy. Previously the Sports Editor for his university newspaper, Jason has experience writing columns, creating game recaps and conducting interviews with Hall of Fame athletes (Harry Carson and Yogi Berra are two of his proudest interviews). When he’s not dissecting the latest sports news, you can find him perplexed over the Dolphins offensive line woes or involuntarily introducing music to his neighbors.

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17 Comments

17 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Rich McQuillen

    May 31, 2019 at 1:57 pm

    Great Article. Great Comparison. I would have waited before betting. Too many unknown variables at this time.

    Examples:
    TE Dwayne Allen – brought in to be a starter, but he was a backup in NE. He has equal blocking grades with Nick OLeary, but O’Leary is a better Receiver. O’Leary could win this spot.

    WR Preston Williams – He could potentially win the #1 WR Spot.
    ****
    The big unknown – the OLine:
    OT Jordan Mills – Could get beat out by Jesse Davis or someone else
    OG Chris Reid – Probably gets beat out by Dieter, and moves to RG.
    C Dan Kilgore – Could get beat out by C Ryan Anderson.

    • Jason Hrina

      Jason Hrina

      June 4, 2019 at 10:12 am

      Good callouts, Rich! It’s quite possible those players I have listed aren’t even in the starting lineup come Week 1. Like almost every other year, this OL is the key to the season. If they’re adequate, this team can exceed expectations. If they’re as bad as we’re expecting, 5-11 would be a blessing.

  2. Avatar

    Jackson

    June 1, 2019 at 7:28 am

    Trump is a bumpkin.

    • Avatar

      Cam

      June 1, 2019 at 7:42 am

      Says u

    • Avatar

      Sam

      June 1, 2019 at 7:43 am

      No no

    • Avatar

      Pete

      June 14, 2019 at 9:20 am

      TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP,MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, USA USA USA

  3. Avatar

    Freda

    June 1, 2019 at 7:29 am

    I like beans 🏋️‍♀️

  4. Avatar

    Sam

    June 1, 2019 at 7:30 am

    In the end the past has happened

  5. Avatar

    Bobby 0

    June 1, 2019 at 7:32 am

    The bunnies are watching 🐰🐰🐰🐰🐰🐰🐰🐰🐰🐰

  6. Avatar

    Tom G

    June 1, 2019 at 7:36 am

    It’s almost taco Tuesday

  7. Avatar

    Raji

    June 1, 2019 at 7:41 am

    Thanks for helping !

  8. Avatar

    Greg

    June 1, 2019 at 7:50 am

    Playoffs ? Playoffs. Could’ve burned that money

    • Jason Hrina

      Jason Hrina

      June 4, 2019 at 10:37 am

      Frankly, would probably be more resourceful than simply giving it away. At least this way I get a solid heat source for a few moments.

  9. Avatar

    Joan

    June 1, 2019 at 12:30 pm

    Playoffs ARE extra!

  10. Avatar

    Chico

    June 1, 2019 at 12:31 pm

    First you get the money then you get the power then you get the women

  11. Avatar

    Donnie

    June 3, 2019 at 1:57 pm

    “As of 2010, 30 of out a possible 32 teams have made the playoffs at least once (sorry, Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans)“

    Perhaps I am misunderstanding the claim you’re making, but the buccaneers were a perennial playoff team, and won the super bowl, in the early 2000s. I’m a dolphins fan and I appreciate your confidence in the playoff bet but this statement stuck out to me. Am I misinterpreting?

    • Jason Hrina

      Jason Hrina

      June 4, 2019 at 10:11 am

      The Buccs were a powerhouse in the early 00’s (and I would certainly take a Dolphins championship if it meant 10 years of futility), but since “2010” they haven’t made the postseason. In this example I was sticking with the current decade.

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Miami Dolphins

Are the Dolphins Done Reshaping the Roster for 2020?

Kevin Dern

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Unless you’ve been in the deepest of quarantines by now you’ve familiarized yourself with Miami’s offseason moves. The Dolphins brought in 12 free agents, 11 draft picks, traded for a running back, and signed 10 undrafted free agents. That’s 34 new names on the 90 man roster as we [hopefully] gear up for training camp in a month and a half.  Despite all the moves, Miami currently has four roster spots open. That’s 86 spots, not counting Durval Queiroz Neto, who is roster exempt, so the question has to be asked: Are they done for now?

We all know that changes will happen in camp. There could be a surprised UDFA or two that makes the roster. Someone could, and likely will, get injured to free up a spot. But, for right *NOW* are the Dolphins done?

I tend not to think so. So who might they be after? I don’t have any inside information, but from what media information we know, and some of my own speculation, I’ve got four names I suspect Miami might be onto. Two big fish and two guys that might be a little more under the radar.

Logan Ryan
The biggest name thus far Miami has been linked to is former Titans and Patriots Cornerback Logan Ryan. Sports Illustrated’s Alain Poupart had this story on May 14th.

https://www.si.com/nfl/dolphins/news/the-latest-on-the-status-of-logan-ryan-and-the-miami-dolphins-interest

Aside from the obvious connection to Dolphins Head Coach Brian Flores, Logan Ryan checks a lot of boxes Miami’s looked for this offseason.  Ryan’s a smart, team-first guy. He’s got position flexibility – able to play on the perimeter or in the slot and he already knows Miami’s defensive system.

But, corners in this league are expensive. It appears that Logan Ryan wants a one-year “prove it” deal. He’s betting on himself and cited Titans QB Ryan Tannehill as one of the reasons why. And per the Miami Herald, Logan Ryan’s agents have told the Dolphins he wants $10M or more for a year. That’s pricey, but Logan Ryan might be worth it; let’s take a look.

In this first clip, you can’t see him at the snap, but he’ll come in from the slot on the offense’s left side and isn’t afraid to stick his nose in against the run and stops Nick Chubb for a short gain.

Later in the same game, he gets a sack on Baker Mayfield (Yes, this play was ruled a sack). Ryan will come in from the right side of the screen, again the offense’s left, on a slot blitz. He gets blocked but is able to redirect and chases Baker Mayfield down for the sack.

Finally, in this clip, he plays press man against T.Y. Hilton from the slot. That’s a valuable skill Miami will like. Hilton’s going to try and break outside, but Logan Ryan reads the play, and showcases a nice burst to secure the pick.

Ultimately, signing Logan Ryan gives Miami a proven slot player who can also play man coverage on the perimeter, allowing Miami to matchup their defense however they please. He’d also gives them a buffer from having to having to give Noah Igbinoghene a ton of snaps right off the bat, if they so desire. At worst, you could spoon feed Igbinoghene at first until he’s grasped his role, then you can increase his snaps. And with Ryan looking for a one year deal, that might be amenable to all parties.

Larry Warford
It’s not too often at this stage of the offseason there’s a 29 year old (turns 29 on June 18th), three-time Pro Bowl guard is available. But that’s just what Larry Warford is. Saints Coach Sean Payton once said that he likes his guards to “have mass and ass” in order to keep a clean, firm middle of the pocket for Drew Brees to operate. Well, if there’s one rookie quarterback this year that is built like and operates like Drew Brees, it’s Tua Tagovailoa. And, between you and me, I think Tua’s going to end up playing a lot sooner than people think.

What adding Larry Warford would likely do for Miami is solidify four of the five starting offensive line spots. If Miami signed him, I think it’s safe to assume Miami would have (from left to right) Austin Jackson, Ereck Flowers, Ted Karras, Larry Warford, and a battle between Jesse Davis and Robert Hunt. That’s a battle that Miami likely would want Hunt to win, as you can keep Jesse Davis as a swing tackle and guard. It would also allow them to bring Solomon Kindley along slowly. I didn’t watch it, but have heard that either Flores and/or Grier compared Kindley to Shaq Mason, who was a project that the Patriots brought along because he didn’t have much pass-blocking experience coming from Georgia Tech’s option offense. Well, with Kindley it gives you a chance to hone his game in total for a year or two while getting a veteran who walks in the door the best lineman the Dolphins would have.

Three quick clips of Larry Warford for you coming up.

First, we’ll see Warford and RT Ryan Ramczyk block up a T-E game. The DT is going to go outside and J.J. Watt comes inside to Warford. They switch it with relative ease and Warford is so big that J.J. Watt can’t generate a pop to knock Warford back and collapse the pocket.

Next, and this one is quick. It’s a jet sweep to Kamara going the other way, but look at Larry throwing bodies out the club! That kind of punch is something Miami haven’t had in a guard since Richie Incognito was in town.

Finally, we see a rep against DT D.J. Reader, who got paid this offseason. Reader’s listed at 347lbs, and someone that large shouldn’t be moved that easily.

Warford gives you size, smarts and strength inside. And, if Miami are going to possibly have a rookie RT in Robert Hunt, that kind of veteran presence can help bring him up to speed quickly. For my money, I’d sign Larry Warford over Logan Ryan since Miami’s Defensive Staff seemed to be able to bring in DBs off the street and get them up to speed enough to start in the same week. Kudos to Josh Boyer for that, but I think there’s more value in bringing in Warford now, and possibly for the next two or three years, than there is for Logan Ryan on a one year deal.

That said, both players would make the Dolphins better and I’m not opposed to Logan Ryan by any means.

Damon Harrison
Okay, so you’ve probably heard of “Snacks” Harrison before. But did you realize he was still out there as a free agent? Kudos if you did. Miami signing “Snacks” doesn’t seem like it’d be in the cards. Harrison is 31 years old, had a tough year last year with injuries in Detroit to the point he contemplated retirement, but hear me out.

Wind the clock back to 2018 when Brian Flores was calling the Patriots Defense. Same defense Miami’s running now. The Patriots had over 1,000 total snaps on defense that year. Danny Shelton played just 31% of them, with 324 total snaps. NT in this defense is a part-time position.

That year the Patriots gave out the following snaps to interior defensive linemen:

Malcom Brown – 456 (43.7%)
Lawrence Guy – 519 (49.8%)
Adam Butler – 379 (36.3%)
Danny Shelton – 324 (31.1%)

With Miami’s drafting of Raekwon Davis, you sort of assume he and Godchaux are going to take on the roles of Malcom Brown and Danny Shelton. Christian Wilkins takes on the role of Lawrence Guy, and perhaps Raekwon Davis takes some of those snaps as well to keep him fresh. As of now, I’d expect Zach Sieler to take on Adam Butler’s workload, which was a rotational DT and someone who can be used on passing downs; Sieler has more skill there than Godchaux or Davis in my opinion.

But what if Miami were able to bring in “Snacks” Harrison to take on that NT role? It’d allow you to give Davis more focused snaps and let him use some of his upfield ability to help spell Godchaux and take on that Adam Butler role. It might mean the end for Zach Sieler in Miami, who is on an Exclusive Rights Free Agent Tender for this year. No harm if you move on.

So what would snacks bring to the table? First, like Logan Ryan, he knows the system to some degree having played under Matt Patricia in Detroit. There may be some differences here an there, but he can pick that up, and it’s a specialized role. Two, he’s a proven run-stopper. Even last year with the Lions with all his injuries he was still effective. Let’s take a look.

Here’s a back-to-back play sequence against the Eagles in Week 3.

First, Harrison’s actually lined up at 3-technique against Brandon Brooks, one of the most underrated players in the NFL. “Snacks” will never confuse for Aaron Donald and he doesn’t muster much of a rush, but he stays with the play and gets his hand up to deflect Carson Wentz’s pass.

The very next play is what he does best. Lined up as a true NT, he ushers Jason Kelce away with one arm, plays down the line horizontally and stops Miles Sanders for no gain. That’s what you like to see out of someone who is 6’3” and 350lbs.

Against the Packers you’ll see him as a 3-technique again and he defeats a double-team by Billy Turner and Bryan Bulaga and makes a run stop on Aaron Jones.

The final clip for “Snacks” comes when he gets a sack of Aaron Rodgers later in that same game. He’s going to work off a double-team by Billy Turner and Corey Linsley, gets around it, and though he’s out of his pass rush lane he keeps working and dumps Rodgers for a sack.

The knocks against “Snacks” are that he’s older than every player on the Dolphins roster save for Ryan Fitzpatrick. He battled through injuries, contemplated retirement and told ESPN that he was “hell-bent” on getting out of Detroit. Did he not like the system? The coaches? How does that parlay into Miami if he signs here considering Flores and Patricia’s backgrounds intertwine in Foxboro? While I think this signing might be more unlikely than both Logan Ryan and Larry Warford, it wouldn’t shock me given Miami’s defensive scheme and the players that Brian Flores has traditionally seen in that role.

Mike Weber
Going a little off the beaten path here. The Chiefs waived Mike Weber, who was a seventh round draft pick for the Dallas Cowboys in 2018. Weber rushed for 1,000+ yards as a redshirt freshman at Ohio State, replacing Ezekiel Elliott. An injury in summer workouts the next year opened the door and J.K. Dobbins passed him on the depth chart, but Weber still rushed for 626 yards and 10 TDs that year. He tallied nearly 1,100 yards and nine more TDs as Dobbins backup in 2018, and declared for the Draft.

Going to Dallas, Weber wasn’t going to get much of a shot behind Ezekiel Elliott, especially after Elliott’s contract extension. He also was beaten out by Tony Pollard in 2019 for the backup job. Weber spent time with the Chiefs on their practice squad during their Super Bowl Run.

Weber has yet to collect a carry in the NFL during the Regular Season, so I don’t have clips for you here. My rationale for Miami possibly being interested in Weber is that Miami had a strong interest in J.K. Dobbins during the Draft this year. Weber played in that same offense at Ohio State and put up big numbers as well. In my opinion, he was more physical as a runner, but lacked the explosiveness. He goes 5’10” 210lbs, so he’s bridging the gap in size between Jordan Howard and Matt Breida.

Kalen Ballage hasn’t proven very effective doing much of anything. Patrick Laird is a nice story, but is probably best served by playing on special teams. We didn’t see much of Myles Gaskin in 2019, save for the Bengals game in Week 16, so he’s still a bit of an unknown. With four open roster spots, what’s the harm in bringing in Weber for a look?

We’ll see what Miami does, and they could very well opt to do nothing. But Logan Ryan, Larry Warford, Damon Harrison, are three guys I think they ought to consider. Each of the three, in my opinion, makes the position group on the Dolphins better they moment they walk in the door. Mike Weber would be more of a reclamation project, but I like his odds of competing against Kalen Ballage, Patrick Laird, and Myles Gaskin for a potential roster spot.

Stay safe and FinsUp!

 

 

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Miami Dolphins

Setting the Edge: Miami’s New Additions Up Front

Kevin Dern

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It’s no secret that Miami’s defense was bad last year. The Dolphins ranked 32nd in the league in points allowed, mostly due to giving up 102 points in the first two games alone. Their run defense, which was an eyesore under Vance Joseph and Matt Burke during the Adam Gase tenure remained problematic in Brian Flores’s first year. Miami gave up 135.4 yards per game, 27th in the league, and 4.2 yards per carry, 22nd in the league. Not good.

Miami’s pass defense wasn’t sterling by any means. Injuries to Xavien Howard, Reshad Jones and Bobby McCain hurt. Trading away Minkah Fitzpatrick didn’t help. But I think we all can appreciate that Miami’s passing defense progressed throughout the year despite having to field a secondary that consisted of: Eric Rowe playing two positions, Nik Needham, Ryan Lewis, Ken Webster, Tae Hayes, Nate Brooks, Adrian Colbert, Walt Aikens, and Montre Hartage at various points.

The Dolphins will have a hopefully healthy Xavien Howard and Bobby McCain back. They signed the premier free agent corner in Byron Jones, drafted Noah Igbinoghene in the first round and drafted Brandon Jones in the third. They also signed safeties Clayton Fejedelem and Kavon Frazier, who have some starting experience in the past with Cincinnati and Dallas respectively. Things are pointing up more solidly in the back end of the defense.

But what about the additions to the front?

The interior players from last season remain largely intact with Davon Godchaux, Christian Wilkins, Jerome Baker, and Raekwon McMillan all returning. Zach Sieler only played in three games but looks promising and his Week 16 performance against the Bengals was arguably the best game for a Miami defensive lineman since Cameron Wake was still on the roster. Kyle Van Noy will likely play a good chunk of his snaps off the ball, as he did under Brian Flores in 2018. Elandon Roberts will at the very least be good depth up the middle.

And the edges of the defense?

First, I think it’s important to distinguish that Miami uses both defensive ends and outside linebackers as edge defenders in different formations. So, to label them all as EDGE players, as seems to be common practice these days, is a bit misleading as it relates to the Dolphins defense. My purpose for this article is to breakdown how the Dolphins got better on the edges this offseason and what we can expect from them in 2020.  Here’s whose on the roster right now:

Defensive Ends
Shaq Lawson
Avery Moss
Emmanuel Ogbah
Jason Strowbridge
Curtis Weaver

*Emmanuel Ogbah, Jason Strowbridge and Shaq Lawson all can play tighter techniques to the ball when called upon (ex: 3, 4i, 4 and in some cases 0).

Outside Linebackers
Vince Biegel
Trent Harris
Andrew Van Ginkel
Kyle Van Noy

*Kyle Van Noy will very likely see snaps off-the-ball as a traditional ILB in addition to edge reps as an OLB. Biegel and Van Ginkel will also get snaps as stand-up DEs (ex: standup 5 or 6 tech in a 3-3-5 Bear front)

If you’ve read my articles on LockedOn before, you’ll know that I believe we’ll see Brian Flores defense really take shape this year. When Flores ran the Patriots defense in 2018, his most used formations were the 4-2-5 (307 snaps), 3-3-5 (226 snaps), 3-2-6 (132 snaps), and 4-3 (97 snaps). Last year’s use of the 3-4 I think was more built out of necessity. Miami’s edge players were bad at setting the edge, and with their ever-changing personnel I think Patrick Graham used more 3-4 looks because it was easier to coordinate. I think this year, with the improved personnel, we’ll see more of what Brian Flores was running in New England in 2018.

One note to consider is that prior to the bye week, we saw more examples of the 4-2-5 and 3-3-5 formations, often with the same personnel. Below are several screenshots from Miami’s games in Weeks 1-3.

Standard 4-2-5
DL:  Moss, Godchaux, Wilkins Harris
LB:  Baker, Eguavoen

3-3-5 formation with 4-2-5 personnel
D-line: Moss, Godchaux, Wilkins, Charlton (OLB)
LBs: Baker, Eguavoen

3-2-6 formation with three DEs (Ruby)
D-line: Biegel, C. Harris, Moss
LBs: Baker, Eguavoen

4-3 Over
D-line: Moss, Wilkins, Godchaux, C. Harris
LBs: Eguavoen, McMillan, Baker

* Note Miami will play under and even looks out of 4-3 personnel.

Let’s get one thing straight. Miami’s defense is very multiple. They will play these formations with non-traditional personnel. For example, if we go back to 2018 when Brian Flores was calling the Patriots Defense, watch their Sunday Night Game against the Packers. New England opens that game with 4-2-5 personnel but using three DEs in the grouping. They used Trey Flowers as a 3-technique on 1st and 2nd downs that drive. Miami will do similar things, for instance, they had Taco Charlton line up as an OLB in their 3-3-5 look seen above.

My gut feeling is that this year, Miami’s defense will more closely resemble the 2018 Patriots in terms of what they deploy, both in formations and in personnel packages, than it will resemble anything Miami ran last year post-bye week.

For a more in-depth look at that, I’ll reference you to this piece I wrote in February of 2019 shortly after Brian Flores was hired. Inside the Film Room.

The remainder of this piece will cover the following additions Miami made this offseason and how they will fit: Emmanuel Ogbah, Shaq Lawson, Kyle Van Noy, Jason Strowbridge, and Curtis Weaver.

As a whole, this group should give Miami much improve ability up front on the edges of the defense. Primarily, Ogbah, Lawson, Van Noy and Strowbridge should provide an immediate shot in the arm for the run defense. The first three and Curtis Weaver should all prove to be better pass-rushers than anyone Miami deployed on the edge last year, be it a DE or OLB.

Emmanuel Ogbah
First things first about Ogbah. He’s big. And he’s long. At 6’4” 275lbs he’s got 35.5” arms and 10” hands. He’s got power and some explosiveness – 35.5” vert and 121” broad jumps. These are things to note about him. Ogbah was having a really nice year with the Chiefs notching 5.5 sacks before an injury cut short his 2019 campaign. He uses that length and power really well to set the edge against the run, and those long arms have come in handy as he’s got 20 career deflected passes.

In this first clip, you’ll see Ogbah (#90) at LDE for the Chiefs. His play recognition here is excellent as he feels the tackle release to setup for a screen. Ogbah slows his rush immediately and looks to get into the pass lane. The Jaguars had a double screen called and Foles goes the opposite way.

Clip number two shows Ogbah’s ability to affect the passing lanes. His rush against Ronnie Stanley seems a bit off, and I think this may have been a game-planned spy attempt as the Chiefs blitz a corner from that side. If it’s not, then Ogbah has good recognition to stop his rush and drop into the passing lane and get his hands up to deflect Lamar Jackson’s pass for an incompletion.

Against the Packers, Ogbah showcases his length and speed in this pass-rush. He uses his long arms well to engage Bryan Bulaga in a bull-rush move. He’s able to start to turn the corner and executes a rip move to free himself and sack Aaron Rodgers.

In our final clip of Emmanuel Ogbah, we’ll see him against the Vikings. Here he’s able to set a hard edge against LT Riley Rieff and he’s able to get upfield enough to force Dalvin Cook to cut inside into traffic where he’s stopped for a short gain.

Overall, Ogbah’s a guy that is going to set a hard edge and has some pass-rush ability. While I get that Dolfans may be upset that 91 isn’t “retired” the way 54 and 99 are, I think it’s fitting as he’ll be deployed like how the Patriots deployed their #91 Deatrich Wise. Ogbah can play on the edge all three downs. He’s long enough and strong enough to play tighter techniques inside. There are a number of reps of him at a 4i-technique being able to stop the run. It wouldn’t surprise me if Miami tries to utilize him as an inside rusher on 3rd downs, much like the Patriots did with Wise. The plus for Ogbah is that he’s a better athlete. He’ll be able to collect some wins as a pass-rusher from 6, 7 and 9 technique looks on 1st and 2nd downs in addition to setting the edge against the run.

Shaq Lawson
Another player coached by Marion Hobby here. Shaq is a player that’s had an odd start to his career. Drafted by the Rex Ryan coached Bills, he wasn’t a super scheme fit there and dealt with some injuries. Starting only 17 career games, none in 2019, Lawson carved out a nice niche for himself in the rotation-happy Bills D-line last year. My thought is that he is going to get opportunities to replicate some of the looks that Trey Flowers did for the Patriots and continues to be put in with the Lions, coached by Matt Patricia, who runs another Patriot-styled scheme.

Our first clip of Shaq is against the Dolphins in Week 11. He’s going to be lined up outside RT Jesse Davis in what you’d call a wide-5 technique. Lawson’s a bit slow off the snap, but he’s able to make himself small and is able to cross Jesse Davis’s face with a quick swipe move and makes a tackle for no gain.

The second clip isn’t necessarily a great pass-rush rep, but the reason I want to showcase it is because of where Lawson’s aligned. He’s in a 3-technique look against RG Evan Boehm. Lawson does a nice job hand-fighting with Boehm, eventually getting free inside despite giving up more than 50lbs to Boehm. This is important because Miami incorporates a lot of the 3-3-5 looks and 3-2-6 looks in passing situations that necessitate DEs being able to play inside. A lot of the pass-rush games, which we’ll see when I talk about Kyle Van Noy, come from a wider edge player coming around into the backside A or B gap. Lawson’s ability to get push in the pocket here is key in executing those games, and in this rep he’s able to get in Fitzpatrick’s face to help force an incompletion.

We’ll move to Buffalo’s week 12 matchup against the Broncos for our next rep. Part of the pass-rush games that is so important in this defense it the ability for players to be able to rush inside and get into A and B gaps. Here Lawson is lined up in a 4-technique over Broncos LT Garrett Boles. He gets a good jump on the snap and is able to cross into the backside A gap, beating the LG across his face to get middle pressure and a sack against Brandon Allen.

Our final clip of Shaq Lawson comes from the Bills vs. Patriots Game in Week 16. You probably already know what it is. Lawson’s lined up in a 5-technique and reads the fake jet sweep play and is able to stop Sony Michel for a big loss. He’s able to fight inside of the double-team block by the LT and WR from a nasty split. This shows Lawson’s get-off and is play recognition skill. He makes a great play tracking this down from inside. At worst, even if he misses the tackle, he’s mucked the play long enough for the CB to be able to force this back inside where it’s going to get a very minimal gain if anything.

Overall, I think Emmanuel Ogbah might end up being the better of the two DEs signed for Miami. Especially at the start. But I think there’s more to unlock with Shaq Lawson. If Marion Hobby can get him to work on his explosiveness of the snap and getting that more consistent, that will go a long way toward helping him. He’s a strong end capable of lining up in tight techniques like 3, 4i and 4. He’s shown ability to rush interior gaps, and that ability may lend itself to doing some, let’s say unique, things that Trey Flowers got to do with the Patriots, like playing a 0-technique in some of their LB heavy nickel looks and in their “playground”/radar defense. While I’m not sure Lawson will get looks like that off the bat, I think that’s something feasible down the road a bit if he can make his get-off more consistent and continue to develop his hand fighting abilities.

Kyle Van Noy
The Dolphins had to, HAD TO get better on the edges of the defense. Case in point they signed two DEs and drafted two more. Brian Flores spoke after the Draft about how players not filling the stat sheet doesn’t mean they had a bad game.  I believe that was in reference to Miami drafting Raekwon Davis. But it could be applied to Kyle Van Noy.

Van Noy may be the most important free agent signing and his impact will likely be rivaled only by Byron Jones for the hidden benefits they bring to the defense.  Why do I say this? It’s because of the many different things Brian Flores and Josh Boyer will be able to do on defense because of Van Noy.

First, he’s able to play ILB, and play it quite well. He can do this in 4-2-5 looks where he’s paired with someone. He can do it in 3-3-5 looks where he’s the guy.

Here you can see him lined up behind Adam Butler in a 3-3-5 look. The interesting thing to note here is that the Patriots had 4-2-5 personnel on the field with Deatrich Wise, Butler and Adrian Clayborn up front. They used Trey Flowers as an OLB in this look opposite Dont’a Hightower.

You want him to rush off the edge? No problem. Here in this GIF you can see the Patriots “playground” defense. Van Noy will be on the left side and rushes outside the left tackle.

In this clip against Dallas from 2019, we’ll see the Patriots in a 2-4-5 look (which is a 4-man front, but with OLBs instead of DEs. Miami rain this a lot against Philly and in Week 17 against the Patriots last year). Jason Witten shifts over to Van Noy’s side and Kyle is able use his arms, get extension and maintain good leverage to set the edge and help with the tackle as other defenders arrive to make the stop. Textbook!

Going back in time to 2018 against the Vikings, I want to give you two plays that were back-to-back in the game. First, we see Van Noy lined up over the RT. At the snap he’s going to drop into the short middle and read Kirk Cousins. He follows Cousins’ eyes to TE Kyle Rudolph and Van Noy just sits down in the zone right in front of him and Adam Butler gets a sack. That’s a hidden play there because Rudolph was open until Van Noy flowed that way.

But the real treat to Van Noy’s game is his prowess with pass-rush games. This is the very next play. The Patriots are in their 3-2-6 look, Diamond, but have RE Adrian Clayborn lined up head-up on TE Kyle Rudolph, whose got a short split. Clayborn helps reroute him at the snap then rushes (something we could see Ogbah and Lawson do?). But watch Van Noy here. He’s going to be lined up off-ball over the Vikings RT. He feints a rush upfield, stops and then loops around to the backside A gap. Adam Butler and Dont’a Hightower crash towards the strongside to effectively set “picks” (Ogbah, Lawson, Raekwon Davis, Wilkins) to allow Van Noy the free run at Cousins. Van Noy unloads on him and forces an incompletion.

He doesn’t notch a tackle, sack or pass deflection. Merely a pressure here. But his ability do run these pass-rush games is OUTSTANDING. Watch the 2018 AFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl victories.

Want one more? Okay, fine you’ve got me! This is in the Super Bowl victory over the Rams on a 3rd down in the first half. The Patriots are lined up in a 4-2-5 look, their marble concept (DB inserted over the nasty split or TE) and Van Noy is the MLB. He simply sits in the underneath zone and takes away two different receivers – almost like a spy. Then Jared Goff scrambles and Van Noy explodes to chase him down for a 14 yard loss on a sack!

I expect Kyle Van Noy to be featured in multiple roles in this defense. Remember the picture of Miami’s 4-2-5 look way at the beginning? He can play either LB spot in that look – outside where Eguavoen is or as the MLB where Jerome Baker is. He can play ILB in 3-3-5 looks. He can set the edge as an OLB in 2-4-5 looks. You can use him in all manner of ways in pass-rush games. And regardless of where he plays, he’s very smart! You’re going to get good reps out of him. Knowing this system already will likely propel him into a leadership role on the defense, which in my view, will help younger guys like Jerome Baker, Raekwon McMillan and Andrew Van Ginkel. He can make sure they’re on top of their alignments and assignments and give them a living, breathing example of what it means to be a smart, tough and physical player. Do I sound like Coach Flores yet?

Jason Strowbridge
If you’ve followed me on Twitter leading up to the Draft, you know I’ve mentioned Strowbridge frequently as someone I’ve liked for Miami. And getting him in the 5th round is a bit of a steal in my opinion. He took on a role as a DT and 3-4 DE at North Carolina, getting minimal reps as a DE in a four man D-line. With the Dolphins, I think he’ll slot into the same position as Emmanuel Ogbah and be a part of the rotation behind him.

His experience playing tighter techniques as a Tar Heel will be one thing Miami will likely try to build on in pass-rush packages. Here’s a clip from Voch Lombardi’s film review of the Senior Bowl with Strowbridge rushing as a 3-technique.

Our next clip of Strowbridge comes from the Tar Heels Bowl Game against Temple. We’ll see Strowbridge lined up at LDE in a 4-man line. He’s able to use an arm over move to defeat the TE and uses his explosion to get into the gap ahead of the pulling guard and help make a TFL.

In this clip against Virginia Tech he’s able to use quickly recognize that both the RG and RT down block and he’s able to get inside of the TE who’s trying to reach him and gets inside of the backside guard pulling. That play recognition is key and he’s able to make a tackle for no gain. Strowbridge doesn’t always exhibit the greatest get off/explosiveness off the snap, but when he does, his eyes take him to the ball well.

In our final clip, we’re looking at something subtle that I think the Dolphins will appreciate. Remember Kyle Van Noy’s pass-rush against the Vikings from above? Well, it’s plays like this from the front line that allow those pass-rush games to happen. Here we see Strowbridge lined up at 3-technique to the near side. He rushes from the B gap to the A gap and is able to occupy the RG and the C, allowing the LB to have a free run at the QB. While the LB fails to make the sack, you can see how this translates to what Miami will be wanting to do.

Jason Strowbridge will need some coaching up, there’s no denying that. But his length, power and experience playing tighter techniques will come in handy. I think his workload will steadily increase as the season moves on. But at first, I think he can help spell Ogbah at Big DE in 4-man lines and might give Miami something as an interior player on 3rd down pass-rush packages.

Curtis Weaver
I think most people are aware of the “good player, bad body” stigma that Curtis Weaver’s carried throughout the Draft process. Daniel Jeremiah said as much when Miami selected him. Weaver could be a tremendous value pick for the Dolphins. I haven’t seen Boise State a lot, but Weaver seems to be strictly a stand-up DE, and I’d think that he’d be that for Miami starting off. Think Chris Long at the end of his run with the Patriots. Weaver can be a 3rd down pass-rusher right off the bat. But I think he’ll need to learn to play the run better in order to earn more snaps.

In our first clip we’ll see that Air Force brings a wing-back into pitch phase to fake an option play. Weaver is the stand-up DE nearest to us. He’s able to read that the motion player isn’t getting the ball before he fully steps into his rush. He uses a rip move to get around the RT and does a nice job turning his rush path into the QB.

This clip showcases Weaver’s strength. Here he’s able to split a double team for a sack.

In the final clip with Curtis Weaver, we’ll see him use his length to set the edge against the run. Marion Hobby will be charged with coaxing this ability out of him more consistently. But when he does, this will help him see more reps.

How all these pieces come together should be very fun to watch. Miami now has a pair of Big DEs – Ogbah and Strowbridge and a pair of Rush ends in Lawson and Weaver. Kyle Van Noy will be playing himself. We’ll also likely see guys like Vince Biegel, Andrew Van Ginkel and Raekwon McMillan get some snaps on the edge as Brian Flowers wasn’t shy about having those three play on the edge last year.

Another added benefit to this, could be that we see Christian Wilkin’s pass-rush potential unlocked more in his second season. With some of these new edge additions able to rush from multiple spots, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Wilkins benefit on twists across the line.

While I won’t make any predictions on which of these guys leads the Dolphins in sacks, I will make two others:

1) These edge defenders will help Miami’s run defense improve. A lot.

2) In terms of pass-rush and the totality of the defense, this group of guys will allow Brian Flores and Josh Boyer to run the defense the way they want to and not be constrained into boiling it down like they did in 2019.

That final point is something we as Dolfans should all be very excited about! #FinsUp

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Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins Trade Charles Harris to Atlanta Falcons

Jason Hrina

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Image Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Dolphins are replacing former first-round picks with late-round prospects.

According to Jason Butt, the Falcons beat writer for The Athletic, the team has traded former 1st-round pick (22nd-overall in 2017) Charles Harris to the Atlanta Falcons for a conditional 7th-round draft pick in 2021.

Current conditions are unknown, but they’re expected to involve Harris either making the final roster, or being active for a certain number of games in 2020.

Trading Harris comes less than 24 hours after the Dolphins released fellow 2017 1st-round draft pick (28th-overall to the Dallas Cowboys), Taco Charlton. It was widely debated which of these pass rushers the Dolphins would draft that year, naively missing out on a much-better talent (drafted 30th-overall) in T.J. Watt.

Taco Charlton ironically ends up joining the Dolphins last year after being released by the Cowboys, and instantly saw more action than Harris. In 10 games with Miami, Charlton logged 396 defensive snaps (39.6 per game); in 14 games, Harris played 429 (30.64 per game).

Charles Harris showed promise his rookie season, but was never able to grow as a pass rusher. During his three years in Miami, Harris combined to accumulate: 3.5 sacks, 34 solo tackles, 10 tackles for a loss (TFL), and 23 quarterback hits. Think Cameron Wake had a down year for the Tennessee Titans last season? In the 9 games he was active for, Wake was still able to get 2.5 sacks and 11 QB hits.

Even more detrimental than his lackluster pass rush was Harris’ inability to set the edge in the running game. Infamously being flushed out on big runs, Harris was a liability on first & second down, and couldn’t generate the necessary pass rush on third down. The team tried their luck at outside linebacker, but the results were just as disappointing.

Teams can never have enough pass rush in today’s NFL, making defensive end a premium position to solve. That said, when Harris was drafted in 2017, Cameron Wake was still performing at a high level, and the team extended Andre Branch to a 3-year, $24m deal less than two months before the NFL draft. Defensive end wasn’t necessarily a need, and seeing such limited production from Harris only exemplifies our disappointment over the last decade.

A likely candidate to be cut after the team drafted defensive ends Jason Strowbridge (154th-overall) and Curtis Weaver (164th-overall) in the 5th-round, receiving compensation for Harris is a pleasant surprise, and speaks to the type of shrewd moves general manager Chris Grier has made over the past year, including:

  • The Laremy Tunsil haul.
  • The additional 2nd-round pick Miami acquired from the New Orleans Saints in the 2019 draft that led to them drafting Raekwon Davis.
  • The additional 6th-round pick they received from the Seattle Seahawks for the 5th-to-last pick in this year’s draft; which, at the bare minimum, is a 50-slot jump.

Miami now has 11 draft picks in 2021, with additional draft picks coming in rounds 1, 2, 6 and 7. And this doesn’t take potential compensatory picks in mind.

A new era is certainly blossoming under Brian Flores; unfortunately, it’s evident there wasn’t much of a foundation for him to build off of.

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