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Projecting Pick 11 – A Locked On Dolphins Collaborative

Travis Wingfield

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The NFL Draft is the ultimate practice in educated guessing. Filling out the exact order for 256 picks provides a countless number of unique outcomes. The odds of hitting the Mega Millions Jackpot are more likely. After much delineation over what type of mock the Locked On Dolphins team should do, we landed on a sole-focus on the 11thpick.

Just at that one pick, there are nearly double-digit options as far as what the Dolphins could do tomorrow night. Between eight writers, all fans of the team, here is what we all think the Dolphins SHOULD do, and what we think they WILL do come Thursday night.

Kevin Dern

Want:  Derwin James – S – Florida State

I think James’ freakish athleticism wins out over Minkah Fitzpatrick’s experience and Miami would have a safety that allows them to do multiple things in the secondary.  The can play split safeties effectively.  They could use him as a matchup-based player.  They could play him in a single-high look when needed.  This also frees them up to use T.J. McDonald as a $LB in sub-packages, as they’ve hinted at doing this offseason.  Tony Oden can find uses for Dime and Quarter (Prevent) packages and Derwin James certainly allows Miami to delve into those options – options that they didn’t have the luxury of going into last year.  Overall, James’ versatility allows Miami to be a better defense overall.

Think:  Vita Vea – DT – Washington

Mike Tannenbaum’s got a history of taking talented and/or planet-theory type D-linemen in his career.  He was in the Jets front office for Sione Pouha and was the GM for Muhammad Wilkerson, Kenrick Ellis and Quinton Coples.  In Miami we saw him take Jordan Phillips in the second round in 2015.  Miami needs to add some interior pass-rush as well as replace some of the snaps vacated by Ndamukong Suh’s departure.  A DT such as Vea seems like a relatively “safe” pick, if there is such a thing, in the first round.  At 6’4″ 347lbs he moves very well, can stuff the run and has quick step to go with massive power off the snap.  My only nit here is that if he doesn’t win off the first-step, his hands stop working at times and he can run himself out of pass-rush lanes. So long as he can keep his weight in check, the rest is coachable for Miami.

Andrew Mitchell

Who I Want…

  • ROQUAN SMITH – LB – 6’1, 235LBS – GEORGIA
  • Smith is the new ideal mold for a NFL linebacker in today’s game. Some would say at 235lbs he is a bit undersized but Smith has devastating speed that helps him succeed while covering running backs and tight ends in pass plays. He is a tremendous leader and fits as a 3-down linebacker due to his coverage ability. The Miami Dolphins need linebacker help in a bad way. He not only would address that need but he also would be an integral part of this defense for years to come. Linebacker has always been viewed as the defensive version of a Quarterback and that’s what Roquan brings, an elite talent as your Defensive QB. His speed, fluidity, athleticism, physicality and leadership are all traits of a future Pro Bowl player. I highly doubt he will be available when the Dolphins pick at 11, but if he is, you find the fastest guy at the Draft and have him SPRINT that name card to the Commissioner Roger Goodell.

Who I THINK the pick will be…

  • VITA VEA – DT – 6’4, 347LBS – WASHINGTON
  • So this is incredibly tough for me, I love the “idea” of Vita Vea the player. A behemoth at 6’4 350lbs, really quick and nimble considering his massive size. My issue with it, is we just cut Suh. Cutting Suh created a need and now here we are using that 1stRound pick on filling the hole that we created on our own terms. Yes, I know Suh opened a large amount of cap space once June 1stcomes, but still, pushing arguably the bigger needs for Linebacker, Defensive Back, and Tight End further back in this draft. All in all, I truly think the Dolphins stay put on draft night and take the best DEFENSIVE player available on their board. Below is who I have as my top 5 for the Dolphins. Considering how I think the draft will go on Thursday night, Vea will certainly be the best available after the group below.
  1. Bradley Chubb, Edge
  2. Roquan Smith, Linebacker
  3. Derwin James, Defensive Back
  4. Tremaine Edmunds, Linebacker
  5. Minkah Fitzpatrick, Defensive Back

Josh Soden

Perfect Fit: In an ideal world one of Minkah Fitzpatrick, Derwin James, Roquan Smith or Tremaine Edmunds make it to Miami without them having to expend any additional draft resources to do so. Derwin James has one of the highest ceilings in the draft, regardless of position. Despite the misconception that he is strictly a box safety and would be redundant with Reshad Jones and TJ McDonald on the roster, James fills a big hole in Miami’s defense with his ability to erase tight ends and running backs in coverage and being a physical presence against the run.

The NFL is becoming more like the NBA, where the definition of the positions is becoming blurred and it’s more about playmakers exploiting mismatches. Derwin James will be part of the revolution of NFL defenses. Safety, corner, slot corner, linebacker, edge rusher. James can do it all and will become the vocal leader of the Dolphins franchise for the next decade.

Reality: Unfortunately for Miami, Derwin James’ stock has been on the rise since the end of the college season. He’s now being mocked consistently inside the top 10 and just out of Miami’s reach. I think that the man Miami eventually selects is Tremaine Edmunds out of Virginia Tech. His ceiling may rival that of Derwin James’, a 19-year old freak athlete that is only just beginning to scratch the surface of his true potential. With Edmunds and Raekwon McMillan, Miami will form the nucleus of their defense with two young standout linebackers.

Skyler Trunck

Need more be said than the GIF above?

Guard is not a sexy pick, especially early in the draft.  When you factor in the additions of Sitton and Kilgore this offseason, re-signing James, and great promise from Davis, an offensive line pick may not be a fan-favorite either.  However, with a player like Quenton Nelson – a player some scouts marked as the best they’ve scouted in the last few years – you turn Miami’s weakness of so many years into its biggest strength.  Imagine a line of Tunsil, Sitton, Kilgore, Nelson, and James, with players like Davis who has the flexibility and skill to play almost all of those positions as injury insurance.

Nelson is one of the few blue chip prospects in this draft.  If he’s available, snag him and watch him and Tunsil dominate side-by-side for the next decade.

*Realistic Pick*

Tremaine Edmunds – Off-ball Linebacker – Virginia Tech

Having a player such as Tremaine Edmunds as someone Miami likely picks is almost as good as a dream pick.  He’ll require some refinement to his game and isn’t quite a blue chip prospect, but he has exactly what Miami needs in his athletic ability to cover tight ends and running backs out of the backfield.  Edmunds could be a franchise player on this Miami defense for years to come.

Jason Hrina

Who Miami will pick:

Vita Vea – with the departure of Ndamukong Suh (and possible departure of Jordan Phillips after 2018), the Dolphins need a DT. And with the #11 pick, they’ll have the opportunity to grab the top player at some positions. While this isn’t a pick that Dolphins fans will love, it should sure-up the defensive line while also keeping it moderately priced. Given how the Dolphins have splurged on defensive ends, they’ll be lucky to have Vea to compliment sophomore defensive tackles Davon Godchaux and Vincent Taylor.

Who I want Miami to pick:

Minkah Fitzpatrick – If everything fell right for Miami on draft day, they would end up with Minkah Fitzpatrick. As the top safety in the draft, Fitzpatrick would give the Dolphins an elite secondary that is extremely young. He would be a wonderful compliment to Reshad Jones and TJ McDonald, allowing them to play their natural positions as strong safety’s that press while Fitzpatrick plays back. Saban hurt Miami with his draft picks while he was the head coach, maybe he could do us a favor by grooming Fitzpatrick for us. The only reason Miami won’t select Fitzpatrick is because he won’t be around when they pick. I expect Fitzpatrick to be one of the first 3 non-QBs to go. Most likely to the Bucs at #7

Will Rogers

Who I’m hoping for at pick #11 for the Dolphins is Derwin James. James can instantly become a starter in the NFL and would pair perfectly with Reshad Jones. One of the many positive notes I’ve heard about James is that he is a leader on the field and in the locker and teammates listen to him. After the years of the Dolphins “locker room problems” and “player problems”, James could be someone to help lead the defense with Reshad Jones while also learning from the veteran safety.

Who I think the Dolphins will draft at pick number #11 is Tremaine Edmunds. While I think the Dolphins might try to trade the #11 pick to gain more picks in this year’s draft, I don’t think they will get the right offer so they will land Edmunds. Edmunds will quickly give a boost to one of the Dolphins weakest links right now, their Linebackers. Edmunds along with Raekwon McMillan can become a serious threat on defense. Hopefully those two along with an improved Kiko Alonzo, the Dolphins linebackers could be the best in years. So on Thursday when you hear “With the #11 pick the Miami Dolphins select Tremaine Edmunds” don’t be angry fans, be happy to be getting a future Pro-Bowler.

Kadeem Simmonds

Dolphins pick: Vita Vea

It makes sense. Let Ndamukong Suh go, draft his replacement and share the workload. It isn’t a fancy pick and there are those who make the argument that while Suh was wreaking havoc on defense, the Phins didn’t exactly set the world alight.

But the Dolphins don’t want to set the world alight, they want to be competent and work with guys that are pushing in the right direction together. A few weeks ago, fans would have jumped at the chance to plug Vea into this defensive line. Now fans see the Washington product as reach, a somewhat lesser player. But this kid is a monster and I can see why the Dolphins would select him with their first pick in the 2018 NFL draft.

Minkah Fitzpatrick

Forget everything I just said. Vea isn’t fit to lace Fitzpatrick’s cleats. This so easily could have been Derwin James and I’ll probably go back and forth over who I want more. Either one would have me dancing on my sofa come Friday morning (draft starts gone 1am for me in England). But it’s Fitzpatrick’s Alabama acumen that just tips it for me. Him working under Nick Saban cannot be downplayed and the Dolphins would have extra knowledge of the safety given the teams and Adam Gases’ close connection with the former Phins head coach.

Fitzpatrick’s draft stock has somewhat “fallen” the past few weeks and James has become THE safety of the 2018 Draft class. But there’s a reason why for most of the season, scouts were talking about Fitzpatrick. His versatility is a huge bonus for the Dolphins, though talk of him being a corner at the next level is nonsense. He can come down with the ball if thrown near him, while he’s a big hitter when asked to come down into the box. I’m ready to get Fitzpatrick on my brand new Miami Dolphins 2018 jersey.

Jordan Alberti

I believe the Dolphins should select Josh Rosen if he is on the board when they pick. My backup pick would be Roquan Smith, as I see him falling to the Dolphins in a lot of scenarios. Rosen makes the most sense of any QB besides Baker Mayfield, which the Dolphins are absolutely infatuated with, however, I do not believe he will make it out of the Top 3 picks, much less the Top 10. Rosen can make any throw and has been in a pro style offense in UCLA. Questions of his attitude concern scouts and I share this concern, however, his talent can not be refuted and if he is on the board, he should be snapped up. Whether he has to back up Ryan Tannehill for the next 2-3 years, or he beats him out in training camp, Rosen is a cant pass talent, and if he falls to 11, that would be a miracle. On the other hand, Roquan Smith, linebacker from Georgia, gives you everything you would like in a linebacker. Questions of certain aspects of his game have arisen but his leadership, range, and speed for someone his size can not be questioned. If he makes it past Chicago, and Josh Rosen or Baker Mayfield are gone, expect to see Roquan Smith in the new, sleek, orange and aqua Dolphin uniform next year.

When Roger Goodell walks to the podium on Thursday night, he will say, “With the the 11th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select, Roquan Smith, Linebacker, Georgia.” The Dolphins can and will not pass up on the potential superstar talent that Smith possesses, with 4 of the 5 top QB’s being off the board (Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen, Allen*). Smith will be paired with Raekwon McMillan, who is returning from a Torn ACL that he suffered in his first NFL snap. Smith and McMillan can form a dangerous, athletic duo that can wreak havoc on teams across the NFL.

Whatever the Dolphins do, I expect to see Dolphins twitter in full force, some loving the pick, some hating it, and some jumping for joy or breaking down their house, *ahem* @Houtz. Thursday will be one of the most interesting and mystifying drafts in many years, and should be very fun to watch. Tweet me @AlbertiNFL for thoughts and opinions, or even just debates.

* Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen, Allen, is the order I think the QB’s will be selected before the Dolphins pick.

Travis Wingfield

What Miami Will Do –

S Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama

The message from the first day of the off-season has centered around finding players that prioritize ball above all else. Minkah Fitzpatrick is the embodiment a player that leads by example – both in production and in the locker room. He’s a scheme-diverse versatile player that Nick Saban relied on to make the pre-snap checks in his complex defense.

Fitzpatrick was primarily a safety in 2016 before kicking down inside to become ‘Bama’s top slot corner in 2017. He has range, ball-skills, instincts and an ability to blitz the edge. In Fitzpatrick, Miami gets the missing piece to the defense that ranked 30thin red-zone defense and 32ndin third-and-long defense.

What Miami Should Do –

Draft Fitzpatrick or Derwin James, Florida State

One of these two players is likely to go off the board in the top-10. James, with greater athleticism and potential, figures to win that battle. Nonetheless, Miami has to fix their inability to disguise coverage with match-up erasers like Fitzpatrick and James.

Miami could go the way of a linebacker with Roquan Smith or Tremaine Edmunds. I’m of the belief that anything they can do from the LB position can be executed by either of these dynamic safeties.

Miami SHOULD Pick Miami WILL Pick
Derwin James – 4 Vita Vea – 5
Minkah Fitzpatrick -2 Tremaine Edmunds – 2
Roquan Smith and Quenton Nelson – 1 each Minkah Fitzpatrick – 1

The fan base in South Florida is sure to erupt if the Dolphins do what the Locked On crew is thinking. The desire for what we want is clear, however – match-up erasers that disrupt the passing game.

Stay tuned for Travis’ complete first round mock and seven-round Dolphins mock draft – up tomorrow.

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1 Comment

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    Ronald Hiatt Jr

    April 25, 2018 at 12:00 pm

    I look at it this way if Miami wants a LB who fits the new moto “loves football a leader” someone who works hard studies hard. The only LB I seen who eats sleeps drinks loves football who just finds a way is Shaquem Griffin so the 1st pick to me needs to be Derwin James to be the eraser and the most athletic fast terminator LB is Griffin and should be the 2nd pick. Now if James Fitz are gone I would be hard pressed to pass up Lamar Jackson and still make Griffin the 2nd round pick. I would trade Parker Branch Kiko to get another 2nd round pick to target my favorite OL and someone Dolphins need to replace Kilgore Frank Ragnow who could play RG allowing Miami to also trade Ju’Waun James kicking out Jesse Davis to compete with Eric Smith and Zach Sterup for RT. Other explosive DTs are Nathan Shepherd BJ Hill Justin Jones Bilal Nichols and RJ McIntosh who could join with Taylor Godchaux and Phillips.

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Miami Dolphins

Tua Yards Away, One Step Closer – Miami-Washington Week 6 Recap

Travis Wingfield

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Dolphins 2-Point Conversion Fails, Team Falls to 0-5

It’s difficult to imagine a better game-script for the Dolphins fan that finds him/herself in the cumbersome position of rooting for better draft positioning. A chance to win on the game’s final play, a strong effort and overall improvement, but the ultimate prize remains unspoiled for a team in transition. For the first time this season, the box score didn’t tip heavily in the opposition’s favor.

 

Stat Dolphins Washington
Total Yards 271 311
Rushing 84 145
Passing 187 166
Penalties 5 (45 yards) 6 (56 yards)
3rd / 4thDown 5/16 (31.3%) 2/11 (18.2%)
Sacks For 0 5
TOP 32:39 27:21

 

The Dolphins were dead in the water under the direction of second-year quarterback Josh Rosen. His three quarters of work produced a pair of interception, five sacks and three points from the Dolphins offense.

Enter Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The fired-up Fitzmagic passed for 132 fourth quarter yards en route to two Dolphin touchdown drives. The final play of the game — a failed two-point conversion dropped by Kenyan Drake — was the third bizarre play in critical situations during Miami’s ferocious surge.

A common play in today’s league — especially from Chad O’Shea’s New England influence — Drake short-motioned into the formation behind a pair of bunched receivers. The throw was a little bit off Drake’s back hip, but the back never secured the ball, ending the play before it had ever a chance.

On an earlier third down and nine, nine-year veteran Center Daniel Kilgore rolled a snap to Fitzpatrick that killed the drive. The possession prior, Fitzpatrick threw a hook-up route over the middle to Mike Gesicki, who had already been thrown to the ground. If any of those three plays is executed, Miami probably comes out of this game with a victory.

Though out-gained for the fifth-consecutive game, the Dolphins moved the chains 21 times to Washington’s 13 first downs. Miami also won the time-of-possession battle for the first time, and scored multiple touchdowns in a game for the first time.

There was enough energy and excitement to fulfil the quota for an admirable Dolphins effort, but the scoreboard not only keeps Miami in the driver’s seat for the first pick of the draft, it essentially gives the Dolphins a two-game buffer over Washington.

With strength of schedule serving as the only draft order tie-breaker, Washington’s likely greater S.O.S. means that if both teams finished with the same number of victories, the higher pick would go to Miami.

The only team left in Miami’s way is the 0-6 Cincinnati Bengals.

Let’s get to the individuals.

Quarterbacks

Last week, on The Locked On Dolphins Podcast, I referenced an article that featured quotes from prominent NFL Draft busts at the quarterback position. Joey Harrington and Brady Quinn discussed the difficult circumstances surrounding their respective insertions into the league. To summarize, they both feel that situations can ruin quarterbacks.

That feels prevalent in the case of Josh Rosen. From an armchair evaluator that was never big on Rosen’s game, the flaws he’s exhibiting have been developed. Consistently lifting his feet upon release, stepping out of clean platforms and into traffic, the kid has no trust in his surrounding parts or his own ability to dissect the defense.

His timing remains late, he’s not managing the pocket and finding space even at the level he was three weeks ago, and everything looks like a challenge for him in this offense.

Rosen will start going forward, I suppose, but this is broken quarterback that needs some time in the shop.

Fitzpatrick was excellent. He provided that classic, bearded spark that rejuvenates the team in a pinch. He was on-time, accurate, and navigated the same pass protection with no issues (no sacks, no turnovers).

Running Backs

The most interesting factoid from this position group came from Kenyan Drake’s post-game presser. Mark Walton began the game as Miami’s starting back, and Drake revealed that the two-point conversion play call had been repped all week by the Dolphins apparent new starter, and former Hurricane, Mark Walton.

Walton, after blowing a pass protection assignment on Miami’s first possession, was the most creative runner for the Dolphins. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry, a season-high for a Phins back, on six carries. Walton’s production was greater in the passing game. He caught another five for 43 yards, giving him 75 yards from scrimmage on the game.

Drake consistently churned out yards as well (10 for 40). He added six receptions for 30 yards — he and Walton’s 15 targets made up more than a third of Miami’s target-share.

Then, there’s the forgotten man, Kalen Ballage. He had three carries and no pass targets. Though Ballage bulldozed into the end zone on a goal line plunge, he has been almost entirely phased out of the offense. He’s essentially a short yardage back at this stage — can’t catch, can’t play tailback in this offense.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

It was a lot of fun to see the Dolphins receivers make some plays in a functioning offense. Devante Parker’s touchdown reception was an extremely difficult catch sliding into the end zone (go out in your backyard and try to catch a ball at your knee caps in a full sprint).

Preston Williams catch-rate remains atrocious (caught 2 of 6 targets Sunday), but his 21-yard stab on Miami’s final touchdown drive put the offense in scoring range.

Mike Gesicki is coming on, and I will not shut up about out from now until further notice. The athletic ability to catch contested balls up the seam should not be underplayed, and that catch he made to start that final drive was a godsend for this offense.

We’ll have more to say about the other tight ends in the film room session on Wednesday’s podcast.

Offensive Line

Another week of shuffling, another week of heading back to the drawing board — or is it? With Rosen in the game, the line was manhandled (five sacks). Once Fitzpatrick entered, the quarterback remained clean, and the offense produced at a rate better than league average (13 points on four drives, more than a point better than NFL average).

Jesse Davis was a tough watch at left tackle before the injury, and things did not get better working on the right side. He’s frequently a beat slow, and can’t gain the necessary depth to take on elite speed rushers. And calling Ryan Kerrigan’s speed rush elite at this stage is probably generous.

Michael Deiter remains a considerable work in progress. His tendency to get out over his skies, which makes him vulnerable to tackles that can rush effectively with lateral agility, shows up on tape each week.

J’Marcus Webb continues to struggle with speed rushes off the blindside edge, but that should be expected. After all, Webb was a street free agent. Miami found a way to help him as much as possible, but the leaks from the other side caused Miami to dial up even more max protection.

Isaiah Prince is serving the role that I always thought was best for him — sixth lineman when the formation goes heavy. I’m intrigued to look at the job he did in that role today, but I don’t have that evaluation ready just yet.

Defensive Line

Christian Wilkins is getting better as this season goes along, and that should realistically be the most important development on the roster. Wilkins’ ability to collapse pockets from the inside will determine what kind of line this group is going to be on the other side of the rebuild. He’s not getting many opportunities to do it just yet, but he’s showing up every week with impressive reps against good players.

Taco Charlton has replaced Charles Harris at the left defensive end position. We’ll have snap counts tomorrow, but Charlton is a fundamentally sound edge defender that typically funnels things back inside — something Harris struggled to grasp for 2.5 years.

John Jenkins put a nice move on Washington Left Guard Ereck Flowers, but was quiet for the rest of the game.

Linebackers

Raekwon McMillan is probably the team’s MVP to this point. He’s a decisive run defender that finds his fit and explodes through contact. This staff has discovered the best route for McMillan to be an effective player, and he’s rising to that challenge.

Jerome Baker was better in this game. He was able to put pressure on the quarterback at least a couple of times from my count, including a nifty inside move on Washington’s Left Tackle.

Vince Biegel is an interesting rush-package player — he was in the Washington backfield at times.

Deon Lacey was with Miami in camp a few summers back. He went to Buffalo and contributed on special teams, but he’s back in South Florida doing the same thing for the Dolphins.

Defensive Backs

Xavien Howard practiced throughout the week, but didn’t play Sunday, and the impact was palpable. Washington Rookie Terry McLaurin made big plays in Howard’s absence, including a touchdown against his replacement, Ken Webster.

Eric Rowe had his best game as a Dolphin. He showed recovery speed and made plays on the football a couple of times.

The same was true of rookie Nik Needham. After his call-up from the practice squad, Needham had a pass breakup and didn’t allow any catches on the day.

Reshad Jones was active against the Washington run-heavy attack. He picked up nine tackles and was a regular in the backfield.

Bobby McCain’s had a good day that included a crucial pass break-up in the end zone, but it was his profanity-laced interview post-game that caught reporter’s attention. Expressing this frustration should come as no surprise for a team captain that pours his all into this game.

Recap

The Fitzpatrick jolt should provide fans with some confidence in the coaching and the plan going forward. Suddenly, the passing concepts were effective, Miami found chunk plays to the backs, and Gesicki was unlocked up the seam.

Brian Flores’ and Patrick Graham’s defensive structure has been sound for the most part this season, and the defense’s effort was good enough to win. Washington scored 17 points on 12 possessions Sunday. The rush scheme, and consequent effort to fill those vacated areas, made life difficult on Washington’s antiquated offensive attack.

The Dolphins simply have to get better in multiple areas from a talent standpoint. The quarterback play, the offensive line, the interior rotation and edge rush, and secondary all need an infusion of players. The draft capital will allow Miami to put premium assets into those groups, then, and only then, can we adequately judge this Dolphins staff.

The Steelers are railroading the Chargers currently, so the dream for a pair of top-three picks will be put on hold, for now.

Miami’s battle with Cincinnati for the top pick could come down to a week 16 showdown in South Florida. The Bengals do have dates with Pittsburgh, the Jets, Dolphins, and up-and-down Browns to round out the season.

Given the Dolphins weak S.O.S., a victory shouldn’t interrupt the Miami’s collision course with the first pick next April. Washington’s remaining slate features only two more losing teams — it’s difficult to find another win for a team that survived a last-minute scare from the NFL’s unanimous doormat.

A win today would’ve made the path to the first pick treacherous. The loss instead, however, keeps Miami in the catbird seat to land Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa.

@WingfieldNFL

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NFL Draft

Scouting College Football’s Top 2020 QB Prospects – Week 7

Travis Wingfield

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Recapping Week 7 of the College Football Season

During the college season, here on Locked On Dolphins, we’re going to keep an eye on quarterbacks all throughout the country. Our primary focus will be on the big four, the options that Miami will likely choose from with an early pick in the 2020 draft.

Those quarterbacks are:

Tua Tagovailoa Scouting Report
Jake Fromm Scouting Report
Justin Herbert Scouting Report
Jordan Love Scouting Report

2019 Week 1 Recap
2019 Week 2 Recap
2019 Week 3 Recap
2019 Week 4 Recap
2019 Week 5 Recap
2019 Week 6 Recap

*LSU’s Joe Burrow has been added to the prospect watch list.

We’ll go in chronological order from when the games were played.

Justin Herbert vs. Colorado,Win 45-3
Stats: 18/33 (54.5%) 261 yards (7.9 YPA) 2 TDs

Regardless of what happens throughout Justin Herbert’s professional career, he will flash moments of brilliance. The consistency of those spurts, however, remains uncertain. When the defense reacts according to the play call, it’s over. Herbert’s ability to quickly drive the ball down the field excites scouts everywhere.

The issue of inconsistency remains, well, consistent. Lapses in accuracy, proper mechanical alignment and anticipatory throws raise concerns over Herbert’s ability to translate at the next level. When there’s no urgency, everything is rosy. Herbert can adequately process and adjust his throw type when he’s free of adverse circumstances.

When Herbert is forced to speed things up — get away from an unexpected free rusher, anticipate a route opening up against the leverage of the defense — errors occur. Balls on the wrong hip/shoulder, late throws into tight windows, there’s a lack of trust in what he sees post-snap.

The upside is difficult to ignore, but those issues have to become hardwired corrections for Herbert to ever realize that potential.

Jake Fromm vs. South Carolina, Loss 20-17 (OT)
Stats: 28/51 (54.9%) 295 yards (5.78 YPA) 1TD, 3 INTs

The first 54 minutes of this game were a struggle from Fromm and the Georgia offense. After early success that has Fromm accomplishing whatever he wanted against the Gamecock defense — man or zone — Fromm’s decision making and location went south during a 42-minute scoring drought.

The good version of Fromm showed anticipation, timing and location on point, as they all typically are. Fromm’s interception on a throwaway attempt to close out the first half started a cascade of poor football. His accuracy waned, his normally perfect communication with the receivers went awry, and Georgia trailed with just six minutes to play at home against an inferior football team. Fromm also lost a fumble on a failed quarterback-center exchange on the doorstep of the red zone.

Executing a 96-yard, game-tying drive when he had to have it speaks highly to Fromm’s character. The NFL will present adversity, and Fromm has showcased the ability to overcome hurdles. Still, at the end of the day, he made too mistakes for Georgia to win this game.

One week after elevating his draft stock ahead of Justin Herbert and Jordan Love, Fromm comes back to earth and makes one thing abundantly clear — there’s a big gap between Tua and the rest of this class.

Tua Tagovailoa at Texas A&M, Win 47-28
Stats: 21/34 (61.8%) 293 yards (8.62 YPA) 4 TDs, 1 INT

On a day where Tua wasn’t as finely tuned as we’ve come to expect, he surpasses A.J. McCarron for the career touchdown passes record at Alabama with another four touchdown day. Tua’s second touchdown was a classic example of his pre-snap acumen, post-snap mechanical alignment, and precise ball location against an A&M blitz. Quickly getting to his spot and setup, Tua throws it right in behind the blitz and right on the bullseye for a big play.

The fourth touchdown was a fantastic anticipation strike to Henry Ruggs. Tagovailoa’s trust in his own eyes and processor allows him to anticipate better than any passer in the country.

He also showcased his fluid pocket mobility. Whether it’s escaping, or climbing up and wading through the trash, the only thing more dangerous than Tua on-script, is the improvising version of Tua.

The trust can lead to some mistakes and easy turnovers, however. Tua’s interception was a carbon copy of one of his INTs in the SEC Championship Game in 2018 against Georgia. Tua checked his backside read and attacked play side with the information he gathered. He was wrong in thinking the safety was bailing out. Instead, the safety robbed a dig route from Jeudy, and Tua was late with the football for an easy pick.

There were additional accuracy issues (available in the video thread) in the game, but not by a significant margin. Typically, when he makes a mistake, he erases the wrongdoing on the next play. Tua can play better, certainly, but I sometimes wonder if we hold him to an unrealistic standard.

A career 9:1 TD:INT ratio will do that (81 TDs, 9 INTs).

Joe Burrow vs. Florida, Win 42-28
Stats: 21/24 (87.5%) 293 yards (12.2 YPA) 3 TDs

Kirk Herbstreit said it best early fourth quarter after Joe Burrow beat another Gators blitz. Herbie referred to Burrow having all the answers for the looks Florida threw at him, and it led to a strong, efficient performance.

Burrow not only threw on-time and on-target within the structure of the offense, he navigated murky pockets and extended plays with big results.

Burrow’s growth in year-two in this offensive system makes for a master attacking the middle, intermediate portion of the field. Dropping the ball in behind linebackers and underneath the safeties, Burrow’s accuracy on crossing routes leads to big plays after the catch for the talented Tigers receivers.

Burrow forced his way into this discussion. The big four have become the big five and Burrow could wind up top-three if he continues this success.

Recap

We’re entering the portion of the season where we can begin to compare common opponents. Fromm earned his way into QB2 status with steady, consistent play through six weeks, but Fromm had his ugliest showing of the year Saturday.

That three-interception performance comes against a defense that Tua carved up for 444 yards and five touchdowns. The already significant gap between QB1 and QB1 increased after the performances of Tagovailoa and Fromm this weekend.

Herbert has nothing to prove against inferior foes. His physical talents are too much for poor defense, especially units that are poorly coached like Colorado. For Herbert to enter QB2 status, he’ll have to show out in adverse circumstances — something he really hasn’t done in his career.

Love was off this week; perhaps the bye week we’ll supplement his familiarity in yet another system. Burrow has passed all of his tests this season, but he still has a way to go before he’s even considered a one-year wonder.

Half way through the college football season, my quarterback big board goes:

  1. Tua Tagoavailoa
  2. Jake Fromm
  3. Jordan Love
  4. Joe Burrow
  5. Justin Herbert

@WingfieldNFL

Additional Prospect Video Threads

Alabama Linebacker, Anfernee Jennings

Oklahoma Center, Creed Humphrey

Oklahoma Wide Receiver, Ceedee Lamb

Oklahoma Linebacker, Kenneth Murray

LSU Edge, K’Lavon Chaisson

Penn State Edge, Yetur Gross-Matos

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Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins Aren’t Tanking, They Just Suck

Jason Hrina

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Image Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Plenty of people want to tell you that the Miami Dolphins are tanking, and depending on how they’re looking at it, they’re either entirely right or woefully wrong.

You see, each player on this football team is attempting to put forth their best effort. They are trotting onto the field branding aqua and orange with the intent of being as successful as they can be.

There may be particular instances where a player prioritizes their health over a few extra yards, but overall, they aren’t going out there just to collect a paycheck.

These people have played football their entire lives. It’s insulting to assume they aren’t trying to maximize the one thing they’ve passionately performed since they were a toddler.

It’s also insulting to assume that this fanbase is so oblivious and naive that rooting to lose means they are not a “real fan”.

When linebacker Jerome Baker called out Dolphins fans (that are actively rooting for a “tank”), he was making a fair point, but he did so without acknowledging what these fans are actually rooting for deep down.

There isn’t a single fan that genuinely enjoys losing. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to tell you that fans are rooting for one miserable season with the hope that it breeds 10 successful ones.

But Baker is right, the players are performing as hard as they can. They’re pridefully going out there and trying to build their resumes for the other 31 teams to see. These snaps will be meaningless in a few weeks (when the Dolphins are unofficially eliminated from the playoffs), but you can’t sell that to a person looking to boost (or, heck, just ensure) a paycheck going forward.

The thing is, the performance that these players are putting out there is the reason why Miami is not just 0-4, but historically one of the worst teams in NFL history.

The front office may have helped create this mess, but they aren’t the reason why people assume the players aren’t trying.

A Surprising Development

2019 was supposed to be a season filled with growth and progress. Establish who your building blocks are, and mold them into a youthful core that can lead the new franchise quarterback to victory.

But all of that growth and progress we expected to see has been virtually nonexistent. In fact, there have been more “surprises” than there have been developments that we can rely on. And while that’s great for the players we had lower expectations for, it speaks minimally for either the players we expected to develop, or the coaching staff we expected to develop them.

Raekwon McMillan has been Miami’s best linebacker so far this season. Though we have to provide the caveat that it comes with a limited snap count, McMillan has been a force in the running game. Did McMillan have too much on his plate last year? Did he finally (fully) recover from his torn ACL in 2017? Is he flourishing without the expectations? Is this really just a flash in the pan?

It’s hard to pinpoint why McMillan has improved so much this season, but this is a welcomed site to see. I’m not expecting 2020 starting middle linebacker or even an elite talent from the former second-round pick, but McMillan has gone from an afterthought to a necessity on this 2019 team.

With just 121 snaps (compared to Sam Eguavoen‘s 251 and Jerome Baker’s 279), I hope defensive coordinator Patrick Graham finds a way to incorporate McMillan a bit more.

After watching the Washington Redskins and the Cincinnati Bengals for 5 weeks, fans are legitimately concerend that Josh Rosen will win too many games this year. While judging Rosen has always been one of the primary objectives of 2019, it was only 3 weeks ago that we expected Ryan Fitzpatrick to start a majority of the season because Rosen wasn’t picking up (or processing) the playbook well enough.

If it weren’t for so many dropped passes, Rosen would have a handful of highlights that make you think he’s the guy. Instead, those drops may be an omen that the Dolphins franchise quarterback isn’t currently on the roster.

But this is where the surprising storylines end. There have been plenty of other surprising developments in 2019, but none of them have been good. It’s these (lack of) developments that further explain why everyone believes the Dolphins are tanking.

Lack of Player Development

It all started somewhat shockingly before the season began when Vincent Taylor was cut. The former 6th-round pick was expected to be a starting defensive tackle for the next couple of years; instead, he was removed from the roster entirely with little explanation why.

Different coaching staffs have different philosophies and playing styles, but Taylor was a productive player with plenty of potential. Whether it was his attitude or the shape he was in when he reported to camp, Miami found a reason to remove a budding talent. Can’t blame the players for taking talent off the roster.

Linebacker Sam Eguavoen was expected to become a future starting linebacker for this team. And while he’s still raw, he hasn’t shown the same level of potential that fellow former CFL transfer Cameron Wake displayed when he joined Miami.

Next to John Denney, Jason Sanders was the only player you had unwavering confidence in.

Sanders has missed as many kicks through 4 games than he did in all of 2018. After making 18 of 20 kicks (and 35 of 36 PATs) in 2018, Sanders has made just 4 of 7 FGs so far this season. Are we adding kicker to the list of holes this team has to plug in 2020?

Jerome Baker hasn’t lived up to the preseason hype. Is it the extra work stacked on his plate? Is it just a sophomore slump?

We expected Baker to be a jack-of-all-trades linebacker who could cover the pass, stunt the run and rush the quarterback. So far, he seems a bit over his head. Granted, he receives minimal help around him, but this defensive front isn’t that much weaker than last season’s.

It’s safe to say that we all expected Baker to be a bit better at this point. If you’re going to “call out” the fanbase for cheering on long term success at the expense of short term misery, you better make sure your performance gives those fans a reason to think otherwise.

If Baker was meant to do everything up front, Bobby McCain was expected to be a Swiss army knife in the secondary. Not only has that experiment been subpar, but it appears more and more like McCain is a player without a position rather than a player that can do it all. It just makes me wonder what McCain “could have been” if the coaching staff left him in his natural slot cornerback position all these years.

After receiving a 4-year, $24m contract extension this offseason, Jakeem Grant has gone from a threatening #3 receiver – and a menacing kick returner – to a player that becomes cringeworthy when the ball is in the air. There isn’t a single person reading this that is confident when the ball is headed in Grant’s direction. Yet, just last month we felt we had a competent wide receiver for the next 3+ years.

There was LOTS of hype around Kalen Ballage when camp broke this offseason. He looked faster, quicker, more-toned and ready to take the #1 running back role from Kenyan Drake. Instead, Ballage has contributed more touchdowns to the opposing team than he has recorded himself. His 1.5 yards-per-carry (YPC) isn’t entirely his fault, as the offensive line in front of him is pedestrian at best, but that logic doesn’t seem to fit Drake’s 3.6 YPC or Mark Walton‘s 3.9 YPC.

I don’t need to tell you that Ballage has been a disappointment, I think we’ve all come to that conclusion the moment he ducked away from an RB screen pass coming his way.

What the Fans Want

Fans are tired of witnessing performances like this.

Every team has draft picks that flame out, but the Dolphins seem to load up on under-performing players. Is it this team’s “culture”? Is it terrible ownership? Is it terrible scouting?

Easily enough, 20 years of mediocrity can be summed up by the quarterback position. And right now, there are two entities that have identified that obtaining an elite quarterback solves ineptitude: fans and the Front Office.

If you were to say that the players are tanking, you’d be terribly wrong. If you were to say that the intellectual minds that make decisions for the Miami Dolphins are tanking, you are absolutely right.

You don’t trade away a cornerstone left tackle, your best wide receiver, your most-experience linebacker, and a handful of other assets if you’re trying to win as many games as possible.

Reshad Jones and Xavien Howard may not miss as many games if every game was crucial.

These are active decisions made (or heavily suggested) by the Front Office. They’re not asking the players to under-perform, they’re doing a good job of that themselves.

When all is said and done, it’s possible this coaching staff is the reason for the lack of development. They could all be in over their heads, and Brian Flores is just a temporary band-aid that allows the next coach to reap the benefits of stocked draft picks and abundant cap space.

I understand that it’s deflating to watch your team’s fanatics root against you, but their apathy isn’t the most disappointing part of the 2019 season. Give the fans a reason to cheer, and you might actually be reciprocated with applause.

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