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Miami Dolphins

Projecting the Miami Dolphins 2019 Snap Counts

Travis Wingfield

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Way too early, pre-rookie mini camp 2019 regular season playing-time projections

By definition, the very practice of this exercise is flawed. Injuries don’t care about projections; they strike relentlessly and without warning. Not to mention trades, demotions and promotions, plenty of changes will occur from this moment to opening kickoff in four months, and then again throughout the actual season.

With so much turnover, both on the roster and in the coaching staff, there is no concrete evidence to decipher how the Dolphins will operate on a weekly basis come the fall. Leaning, rather, on coach’s previous tendencies (be it Brian Flores and Chad O’Shea with the Patriots, or Patrick Graham with the Packers) and my own self-taught pattern recognition, this serves as a pre-Organized Team Activities snapshot of Miami’s current roster.

Since we’re projecting regular season snap counts, that also means picking the 53 that will survive final cuts the first weekend in September — so bear with me.

First, some guidelines:

– Based off 1,000 snaps on both sides of the ball
– No injury accounting (assuming everyone is healthy every week)
– Heavy consideration for Miami’s multiple offensive and defensive packages (nickel has become the new base, more 21-personnel on offense, etc.)

Offense – In a perfect world, the quarterback and all five linemen play 100% of the snaps; that leaves 5,000 snaps for the skill players to divvy up. Using the Patriots offensive deployment (12 and 21-personnel heavy) from 2018, the goal was to accurately depict an offense that is fluid in the personnel groupings it calls.

 

Position – Player Snaps (%)
QB – Josh Rosen 1,000 (100%)
RB – Kenyan Drake 600 (60%)
RB – Kalen Ballage 350 (35%)
RB – Myles Gaskin 100 (10%)
FB – Chandler Cox 250 (25%)
WR – Kenny Stills 850 (85%)
WR – Albert Wilson 800 (80%)
WR – Jakeem Grant 500 (50%)
WR – Devante Parker 200 (20%)
WR – Brice Butler 50 (5%)
TE – Dwayne Allen 650 (70%)
TE – Mike Gesicki 550 (60%)
TE – Nick O’Leary 50 (5%)
TE – Durham Smythe 50 (5%)
LT – Laremy Tunsil 1,000 (100%)
LG – Michael Deiter 1,000 (100%)
OC – Kirk Barron 1,000 (100%)
RG – Chris Reed 1,000 (100%)
RT – Jesse Davis 1,000 (100%)
Swing Tackle – As needed
Swing Interior – As needed

AQUA – denote starters

The surprise in the bunch is starting Center, Rookie UDFA Kirk Barron. Between Daniel Kilgore’s injury history and sub-par tape, paired with the work Barron put together on film at Purdue, that’s my pick for camp surprise. The fact of the matter is that the reserve offensive line positions are wide open, and there might be a few UDFAs with an inside track to an opening day roster spot.

Defense – This side is much trickier. With down-and-distance, and the offense’s package groupings, dictating the defensive substitutions, there are a lot more variables on this side of the ball — not to mention a front-seven that will feature multiple fronts (two, three, four, and five-man fronts).

We have 11,000 snaps to account. Again, operating in a perfect world, four members of the secondary never leave the field with a fifth (a linebacker) staying on for every rep.

 

Position – Player Snaps (%)
DL – Christian Wilkins 650 (65%)
DT – Davon Godchaux 500 (50%)
DL – Vincent Taylor 500 (50%)
DE/LB – Charles Harris 350 (35%)
DE – Tank Carradine 350 (35%)
DE – Jonathan Woodard 100 (10%)
DE – Jonathan Ledbetter 100 (10%)
DL – Kendrick Norton 50 (5%)
LB – Raekwon McMillan 1,000 (100%)
LB – Jerome Baker 650 (65%)
LB – Kiko Alonso 450 (45%)
LB – Andrew Van Ginkel 350 (35%)
LB – Chase Allen 100 (10%)
LB – Jayrone Elliot 100 (10%)
CB – Xavien Howard 1,000 (100%)
CB – Eric Rowe 1,000 (100%)
CB – Bobby McCain 750 (75%)
CB – Jalen Davis 300 (30%)
CB – Cornell Armstrong 100 (10%)
FS – Minkah Fitzpatrick 1,000 (100%)
SS – Reshad Jones 1,000 (100%)
FS – Maurice Smith 500 (50%)
SS – T.J. McDonald 200 (20%)

AQUA – denotes starters

I kept 23 players on offense, making room for 27 on defense. Omitted from defensive snaps are: LB Mike Hull, LB Terrill Hanks, CB Walt Aikens, and CB Nick Needham. Miami’s biggest need on this defense remains the third safety role, New England’s third safety in 2018 (Duron Harmon) played 61% of the Patriots defensive snaps. T.J. McDonald is not suited for that role; Maurice Smith is much closer to that particular make-up — that will be an interesting battle come training camp.

Patching this together is a difficult exercise. It can be considered a bit arbitrary, but the fact of the matter is we will see a lot more substitution than in past years under Adam Gase and Matt Burke. I have two primary takeaways from this piece:

1.) The Dolphins roster still needs a lot of work, and
2.) Miami will rely on so much more than the standard 22 starters — everyone on the 53-man roster will play an integral role.

@WingfieldNFL

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Miami Dolphins

Josh Rosen 2018 Passing Chart – Week 17 at Seattle

Travis Wingfield

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Football, more so than any other sport, requires context to tell the full story. Box scores provide the casual fan with a general idea of the cumulative result of any given game, but without isolating each player’s performance, many details go unnoticed.

This project is entirely based around isolating the play of Josh Rosen. Traditional data points will tell you that his rookie season was one of the worst in the history of the league. Watching each drop back multiple times over, breaking down the most impactful plays, and charting the data that tells the true story, this is the 2018 Josh Rosen charting project.

Jump To:

Week 4 vs. Seattle
Week 5 at San Francisco
Week 6 at Minnesota
Week 7 vs. Denver
Week 8 vs. San Francisco
Week 10 at Kansas City
Week 11 vs. Oakland
Week 12 at LA Chargers
Week 13 at Green Bay
Week 14 vs. Detroit
Week 15 at Atlanta
Week 16 vs. LA Rams
Week 17 at Seattle

Week 17 at Seattle –

By the time this season finale came to an end the entire Cardinals operation had to breathe a sigh of relief. A disaster season, that came to a crashing conclusion, was finally in the rearview. For Josh Rosen, the last month of the season was a recurring nightmare. Rosen threw 146 passes in December and the only one that crossed pay dirt was a busted coverage in this Seattle game.

Some of Rosen’s strong suits didn’t travel to the Pacific Northwest. Throwing into contested windows, play-action passing, and third down conversions each brought back less than satisfactory returns.

The Cardinal passing offense converted 3-of-14 3rd downs. Rosen was 2-of-14 for 23 yards on contested throws and 5-of-10 for 56 yards on play pass.

Rosen was chucking-and-praying once again. The average air yards per throw tallied 10.8 yards, while the Arizona receivers only amassed 51 yards after the catch (34.2% of Rosen’s passing total).

The short passing game was far more fruitful than the vertical attacks.

 

Portion of the Field Accurate Pass/Number of Passes
20+ yards 0/3 (0%)
11-19 yards 0/3 (0%)
0-10 yards (or behind LOS) 11/16 (68.8%)

 

The game was littered with mistakes from the Cardinals QB. Rosen registered 14 mistakes (11 from accuracy, 2 ball security issues, and 1 poor read). Rosen lost two fumbles and had two would-be interceptions dropped by the Seattle defense.

The personnel deployment featured more versatility than recent weeks. Rosen’s passes were supplemented by the following personnel packages.

 

11-personnel 31 snaps
12-personnel 3 snaps
21-personnel 4 snaps

 

As has been the case all season, Rosen was under frequent pressure. Seattle arrived for 11 pressures (6 sacks, 3 hits, 2 hurries) at an average time from snap-to-pressure of 2.19 seconds.

The busted coverage touchdown was Rosen’s one red-zone completion (1-of-3). He was in the gun for 25 snaps and under-center for 13.

Another week, another low conversion rate. The Cardinal passing game converted 8-of-38 plays into first downs (21.1%)

It’s difficult to imagine a more trying rookie season than the one Rosen experienced. The offensive line play was poor, the only consistent pass catcher was Larry Fitzgerald, and Rosen had his own share of rookie mistakes to compound things.

This game goes into the losing performance category marking eight consecutive games that Rosen failed to reach the winning performance category.

 

2018 Performance Results Number of Games
Winning Performance 2 (SEA, SF)
Inconsequential Performance 3 (@MIN, @LAC, @ATL)
Losing Performance 7 (@SF, DEN, @KC, OAK, @GB, DET, LAR, @SEA)

Winning Performance – The QB played well enough to garner a victory. He limited mistakes and made plays in crucial situations.
Inconsequential Performance – More of a game-managing role, the QB didn’t have the big plays, but mistakes were limited.
Losing Performance – The QB limited his team’s ability to win the game with his performance.

@WingfieldNFL

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Miami Dolphins

Josh Rosen 2018 Passing Chart – Week 16 vs. LA Rams

Travis Wingfield

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on

Football, more so than any other sport, requires context to tell the full story. Box scores provide the casual fan with a general idea of the cumulative result of any given game, but without isolating each player’s performance, many details go unnoticed.

This project is entirely based around isolating the play of Josh Rosen. Traditional data points will tell you that his rookie season was one of the worst in the history of the league. Watching each drop back multiple times over, breaking down the most impactful plays, and charting the data that tells the true story, this is the 2018 Josh Rosen charting project.

Jump To:

Week 4 vs. Seattle
Week 5 at San Francisco
Week 6 at Minnesota
Week 7 vs. Denver
Week 8 vs. San Francisco
Week 10 at Kansas City
Week 11 vs. Oakland
Week 12 at LA Chargers
Week 13 at Green Bay
Week 14 vs. Detroit
Week 15 at Atlanta
Week 16 vs. LA Rams
Week 17 at Seattle

 

Week 16 vs. LA Rams –

For the second consecutive game Josh Rosen didn’t finish under-center for the Cardinals. In a blowout loss, where it seemed like the entire game plan revolved around making life easy on Josh Rosen, Arizona still managed to get ran out of the building. Mike Glennon completed the final series for the Red Birds offense.

Rosen threw the ball only 23 times, but scrambled more than he has all season. The game plan also featured the least amount of variety, from a personnel grouping standpoint, all season.

 

11-personnel 30 snaps
12-personnel 1 snap

 

Rosen’s typical third down heroics didn’t show up. The Cardinals converted only 2-of-10 third downs in the passing game (one a QB scramble). Converting, as it has been all season, was a challenge in general — Arizona converted just 6-of-31 drop backs (19.4%).

Rosen was in the shotgun almost exclusively (3 under-center, 28 in the gun). This led to a limited play-action passing game (only one throw from play pass).

The four mistakes attributed to Rosen were largely deep shots. He missed on short pass, but two of the three inaccuracies came on balls down the field. One of those deep shots was an ill-advised throw into coverage despite a wide open Larry Fitzgerald coming across the formation (seen in the video thread).

Rosen’s depth splits were as follows:

 

Portion of the Field Accurate Pass/Number of Passes
20+ yards 0/3 (0%)
11-19 yards 0/3 (0%)
0-10 yards (or behind LOS) 11/16 (68.8%)

 

More than half of Rosen’s 87 passing yards came from YAC (54%). The average depth of Rosen’s passes was 9.22 air yards per throw.

Throwing into tight window was a futile effort. Rosen completed 1-of-7 contested throws for 7 yards. Pressure was a regular fixture, yet again, as Rosen was under duress on 11 drop backs (4 sacks, 5 hits, 2 hurries). The average time from snap-to-pressure was 2.30 seconds.

The war of attrition seems to have finally broken the Cardinals spirit. The team’s execution was lacking all year, but this game was something of a “white flag” effort from the coaching staff. Rosen gets tabbed with a losing performance for a lack of big-time plays, a few mistakes, and an awful holistic result.

 

2018 Performance Results Number of Games
Winning Performance 2 (SEA, SF)
Inconsequential Performance 3 (@MIN, @LAC, @ATL)
Losing Performance 6 (@SF, DEN, @KC, OAK, @GB, DET, LAR)

Winning Performance – The QB played well enough to garner a victory. He limited mistakes and made plays in crucial situations.
Inconsequential Performance – More of a game-managing role, the QB didn’t have the big plays, but mistakes were limited.
Losing Performance – The QB limited his team’s ability to win the game with his performance.

@WingfieldNFL

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Miami Dolphins

Josh Rosen 2018 Passing Chart – Week 15 at Atlanta

Travis Wingfield

Published

on

Football, more so than any other sport, requires context to tell the full story. Box scores provide the casual fan with a general idea of the cumulative result of any given game, but without isolating each player’s performance, many details go unnoticed.

This project is entirely based around isolating the play of Josh Rosen. Traditional data points will tell you that his rookie season was one of the worst in the history of the league. Watching each drop back multiple times over, breaking down the most impactful plays, and charting the data that tells the true story, this is the 2018 Josh Rosen charting project.

Jump To:

Week 4 vs. Seattle
Week 5 at San Francisco
Week 6 at Minnesota
Week 7 vs. Denver
Week 8 vs. San Francisco
Week 10 at Kansas City
Week 11 vs. Oakland
Week 12 at LA Chargers
Week 13 at Green Bay
Week 14 vs. Detroit
Week 15 at Atlanta
Week 16 vs. LA Rams
Week 17 at Seattle

 

Week 15 at Atlanta –

We’ve reached the point in the season where the Cardinals coaching staff had to make a switch to prevent further damaging their 21-year-old quarterback. Josh Rosen, under duress all game, with very little help from the route concepts and plan to attack the Atlanta defense, was pulled for Mike Glennon in the fourth quarter.

The Falcons pass rush would’ve crippled the most grizzled veteran in the NFL; it completely debilitated Rosen. The Cardinal QB was under pressure 15-of-27 drop backs (6 sacks, 6 hits, 3 hurries) with an average snap-to-pressure time of 2.17 seconds.

Atlanta’s unrelenting pressure led to a season-low in average air yards per attempt (4.6 AYPT). The Arizona receivers picked up 82 yards after the catch counting for 62.1% of Rosen’s passing total.

Once again, a lopsided scoreboard forced Arizona into very little variety from a personnel grouping standpoint. Rosen was 4-of-5 with 37 yards on non-11-personnel calls. The issue there — Arizona was always in 11-personnell.

 

11-personnel 22 snaps
12-personnel 4 snaps
21-personnel 1 snap

 

Rosen only committed two mistakes in the game (one accuracy, one a poor decision). The biggest mistake was an example of nervous antics in the pocket and a decision Rosen would prefer to have back (available in the Twitter thread).

Rosen was under-center just 5 times (gun 22), and only threw from play action three times; Rosen was 2-of-3 with 13 yards on play pass.

The Arizona offense converted only 18.5% (5-of-27) passing plays into first downs. Throwing into contested windows was a 50-50 proposition — Rosen threw for 68 yards on 4-of-8 passing into tight windows.

Rosen’s depth splits were as follows:

 

Portion of the Field Accurate Pass/Number of Passes
20+ yards 1/1 (100%)
11-19 yards 2/3 (66.7%)
0-10 yards (or behind LOS) 12/15 (80%)

 

It was a miserable day for the Cardinals all the way around. Rosen never stood much of a chance to make a big time paly, or to make a game-changing mistake — but the one time he did make a crucial mistake, the game was already out of reach. This showing goes in the inconsequential column.

 

2018 Performance Results Number of Games
Winning Performance 2 (SEA, SF)
Inconsequential Performance 3 (@MIN, @LAC, @ATL)
Losing Performance 5 (@SF, DEN, @KC, OAK, @GB, DET)

Winning Performance – The QB played well enough to garner a victory. He limited mistakes and made plays in crucial situations.
Inconsequential Performance – More of a game-managing role, the QB didn’t have the big plays, but mistakes were limited.
Losing Performance – The QB limited his team’s ability to win the game with his performance.

@WingfieldNFL

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