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Staff Predictions: Miami Dolphins 2019 season record

Gabe Hauari

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Whether you believe Brian Flores when he says the Dolphins are trying to win every game or not, one thing is abundantly clear: the Miami Dolphins will not be very good in 2019.

By trading away Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills to the Texans, the Dolphins essentially pushed all their poker chips to the middle of the table and are all in on a rebuild and all in on the 2020 draft.

With that being said, the Locked on Dolphins staff took a shot at predicting Miami’s final record for the 2019 season. Warning: avert your eyes because this won’t be very pretty.

Chris Kowalewski

The Dolphins are in for a difficult season and they know it. Stephen Ross basically announced the same earlier this year on New Years’ Eve. Heading into previous seasons with elevated expectations has yielded mixed (but predominantly underwhelming) results and this year the expectations themselves are at an all-time low.

Brian Flores won’t call it ‘tanking’ and I believe him – I have confidence that he’ll train the team the right way focusing on technique and fundamentals, build through adversity and will demand full effort on every play. But ultimately, this young Dolphins team currently lacks enough talent and experience to win consistently. It’ll be a tough learning curve but hopefully one with some glimpses of promise which, helped by impressive defensive performances, which may be enough to earn a small handful of victories. If I’m looking for where those Dolphins wins might come from, I’d go with Week 6 (vs Redskins), Week 9 (vs Jets) and Week 15 (@ Giants).

Prediction: 3-13

Shawn Digity

I just don’t think this roster can hold up against any other team in the league. It’s not meant to be insulting; it’s that the combination of roster turnover, player inexperience, and jettisoning players in trades or outright releasing them has created a huge uphill battle for the Dolphins this year.

On the roster currently (as of September 4), there are 11 rookies, four undrafted and seven that were drafted, five players acquired in trades that will have been with the team for eight days when the Fins kickoff against the Ravens, one of which is now the new starting left tackle, and three new starters on the offensive line with a new helmsman leading the charge. I don’t think a lot of success has been found with those circumstances.

There are winnable games on the schedule, in my opinion, like the Bengals and Giants, but I think that’s where the Fins’ inexperience will really factor in. The games against Cincinnati and New York are in Weeks 15 and 16. The team will have taken its lumps, made the necessary moves in the wake of any unfortunate injuries, and just be trying to get to the finish line; I envision the rookies to have hit the wall by then, too. If those games had been earlier in the season, I would’ve considered marking them as wins.

The team is reinventing itself and it’s in the midst of finding its new identity, so expect that journey to consist of a lot of losing.

Prediction: 0-16

Andrew Mitchell

The Miami Dolphins are in full blown rebuild mode. Notice I say “rebuild” and not “tank.” Because tank would imply they’re purposely trying to lose. Whereas rebuilding is simply what we’ve done, we blew up the foundation and are starting from scratch. 

The Dolphins schedule is not the easiest which is why I only have them at 3 games. Ultimately I believe their record will vary between 2-5 wins this season. As of now, I have them stunning the Ravens on opening day, beating the Jets in Miami and then the Redskins after the bye week. 2 other potential wins are the Bengals and Jets again but I really think this team is going to be hard to watch at certain points, especially late in the season. 

My advice is find some players you like and see if they develop. Hopefully some carve a role for themselves for future seasons. Just look for the silver linings and buckle up because it’s a tough, tough road ahead. 

Prediction: 3-13

Jason Hrina

Not only will the Dolphins play themselves out of a top draft pick, but they’ll do it courtesy of a three-game winning streak in the middle of the season.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is the perfect quarterback to exceed expectations while subsequently underperforming for the majority of the season.

Weeks 9-11 feature the Jets at home, the Colts away and then the Bills at home. All 3 of these games are winnable, and Fitzpatrick is ‘just’ good enough to topple these below average teams.

The other 3 wins I have on the schedule are:

Week 6 vs Redskins

Week 15 @ NY Giants

Week 16 vs Bengals

Thing is, once Josh Rosen becomes the starting quarterback, this prediction will completely change. I think you can expect fewer wins when Rosen is placed into the lineup; if for no other reason, he’ll need some time to work the rust off.

Prediction: 6-10

Oliver Candido

Miami reaches 6-10 in 2019 with a solid defensive effort, which is more of a statement on the previous coaching staff. Unfortunately Miami is forced to use draft capital to move up and get the quarterback of the future.

Prediction: 6-10

Gabe Hauari

I’m trying to decide which roster is worse: this one, or the one that led Miami to a 1-15 record in 2007. It’s close, but I think the 2007 roster is just slightly worse because Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen offer more talent at quarterback than Miami had in 07.

Any way you slice it, this team will not be good. The offensive and defensive lines are both relying on young, unproven players, especially with the departure of Laremy Tunsil.

Miami will be able to hang with the Cincinnatis and Washingtons of the world, but games against the likes of the Patriots, Cowboys and Chargers will likely be blowouts.

Miami’s only chance to stay competitive this year is to run the ball effectively with Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage, let your quarterbacks manage the game, and create turnovers on defense.

Unfortunately, I think that’ll only lead to two wins this season: Week 6 at home vs. Washington and Week 16 at home vs. Cincinnati.

Prediction: 2-14

Kevin Dern

The M1A2 Abrams Main battle tank has 1500hp turbine engine, a 125mm M256A1 smoothbore cannon, and can carry 42 rounds of ammunition…oh, I’m supposed to talk about the Dolphins season.  Yeah, it’s not going to be good.  They do face a slew of lesser QBs after the bye week:  Case Keenum, Josh Allen twice, Sam Darnold twice, Jacoby Brissett, and Andy Dalton, so maybe they can scratch out a pair of victories.  To sum up, when you’re not watching tank highlights watch Tua or J-Love.

Prediction: 2-14

A lifelong Dolphins fan, Gabe graduated from Virginia Commonwealth University in December of 2017 with a bachelors of science in mass communications, with a concentration on print & online journalism. He has interned with Source Media in New York City and with the Courier Journal in Louisville, Kentucky. When not watching sports, you can catch Gabe in line at Chipotle or Chick-Fil-A or binge-watching some of his favorite TV shows, such as It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, Archer, or Impractical Jokers. You can follow him on Twitter @GabeHauari.

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    Cory Benton

    September 6, 2019 at 6:08 pm

    Insights much appreciated as always. Where does T-Wing’s W/L total have us at the end of 2019? Well, if the truth lies somewhere in between the highest and lowest expectations, it’s looking like some rough seas ahead. However, these almost-certanties come along with the caveat that we are finally doing this thing right. So batten down the hatches and Fins Up!

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Miami Dolphins

Taco Charlton: New Acquisition Analysis

Travis Wingfield

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Dolphins go back to the 2017 first round defensive end well, claim Charlton from waivers

The 2017 Dolphins were, sadly, one of the more anticipated teams this organization has assembled in recent memory. Fresh off a surprise 10-win season, heading into year-two of the new system, and bevy of players returning from injury had fans feeling optimistic.

Patching up the perceived holes on the roster — like the defensive end position — started with an atrocious Andre Branch extension, and ended on the draft’s opening night with a handful of edge rusher prospects ripe for picking.

Derek Barnett came off the board before Miami could pluck the future Super Bowl hero, but everyone else was available. Jonathan Allen was selected five picks ahead of the Dolphins, but he was billed more as a three and five-technique inside player, not a true edge rusher.

That left Charles Harris, Taco Charlton, Tak McKinley and T.J. Watt. Two of those players are off to sterling starts in their young careers — the other two are nearing their respective last legs, and both are now Miami Dolphins.

Charlton received his release from the Cowboys earlier this week after an under-whelming 34-game stay in Big D. Taco’s snap count is revealing of the feeling about the player among the Dallas staff.

 

Year Taco Charlton Defensive Snaps Played (% of Cowboys’ Defensive Snaps)
2017 399 (38.2%)
2018 401 (39.2%)
2019 0

 

A 40-percent snap-taker is typically indicative of one of two things for an edge player. He’s either a situational savant — whether that’s to support the run game or pin his ears back and get after the quarterback — or that he’s the second option in the rotation, A.K.A. a backup.

Charlton’s production suggests that he was the latter, and only because of his draft status. His descent into a game day inactive signaled the end of his time with the club that drafted him.

Rumors of a trade were speculated as the reason Charlton was a healthy scratch for the season’s first two games, but Head Coach Jason Garrett referred to the numbers game. “We have 10 guys on the active roster on the defensive line and we dressed eight for the game. It felt like the guys we had up there gave us the best chance,” Garrett said via a report from Bloggin’ The Boys.

Still, we have 800 reps to look at to figure out where it went wrong for Charlton, and if he possesses a legitimate shot to fit this scheme and carve out spot in the future plans of the NFL’s most steadfast rebuild operation.

First, let’s start with the type of player Charlton was supposed to be coming out of Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan program.

The Dolphins are a team that adheres strongly to prototypes all over the field, but particularly in the trenches. Explosive metrics aren’t nearly as important as length, strength, read-and-react skillsets, intelligence to process and execute a variety of roles (stunts, twists, slants, picks), and most importantly, playing with heavy hands.

His fit begins with his build. At 6’6’’, 270-pounds with 34.5-inch arms, Charlton looks like plenty of defensive ends in a Brian Flores (Bill Belichick defense) before him. Charlton doesn’t check off all those boxes from the previous paragraph, but he hits enough of the buzz words to justify a flier.

This from Lance Zierlein of NFL Media.

That immediate get-off and quickness would’ve suited him better in Miami’s wide-9 alignment under Matt Burke. The length will benefit him, especially as he forces tackles to quickly get into their pass sets. The challenge will be developing a secondary move to work back inside and underneath the tackle.

The glowing praise for his twist, bend, and lower-body control will serve him well in a defense that will stunt, stunt, and stunt some more.

Most of all, the length will help him excel in this scheme as a run defender. To lock out and hold the point of attack are keys, and those are areas that put Charlton on the map as a first-round prospect.

The weaknesses from that blurb are alarming. Getting washed out of his gap by power and allowing blockers into his frame will earn him a quick ticket right out of town — those are the departments where the surprise cuts in Nate Orchard and Dewayne Hendrix struggled.

Lack of consistency, takes plays off, needs a coach that will push him — those are the final takeaways from Zierlein’s conversation with an anonymous AFC Executive.

If there’s any one thing you can point to with Flores as far as his football acumen — this excludes leadership and communication — it’s his ability to coach football (novel idea, huh?) This feels like a Flores pet project.

Let’s get into some of Charlton’s Dallas tenure, starting with his metrics from Pro Football Focus.

Charlton has 38 total pressures in his two years as a pro (4 sacks, 8 hits, 26 hurries). He compiled those numbers on 464 pass rush reps, a pressure on 8.2% of his pass rush snaps — not good. His 4.1 weighted pass rush productivity mark in 2018 ranked 132ndamong all edge rushers.

Charlton missed four tackles on 34 opportunities — an 11.8 missed tackle percentage, also not good. He made 23 run-stops on 346 snaps against the ground game. That mark — 6.6% — landed Charlton at 73rd among edge defenders in 2018, and 143rd in 2017.

The majority of Charlton’s work came from the right side of the defensive line (position vacated by Robert Quinn, currently held by a cast of many in Miami). Charlton lined up for pass rushing situations on the right side for 67.3% of his total reps.

Now, for the tape.

If Charlton can piece together the finer points of his game and develop a better arsenal or rush moves, he’ll stick as a building block. The decreased workload this year, his lack of production dating back to college, and inconsistencies makes one wonder about the drive and work habits.

We’ll quickly find out about the character of Charlton. If he embraces this opportunity, it’s a great landing spot for him. If not, he’ll be back on the unemployment line in short order.

@WingfieldNFL

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Miami Dolphins

Josh Rosen Named Starting QB vs Cowboys; Claim DE Taco Charlton

Chris Kowalewski

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Only minutes after the Miami Dolphins’ Week 2 loss against the Patriots, Head Coach Brian Flores maintained that Ryan Fitzpatrick was the starting quarterback… “Right now”.

By Thursday afternoon, it became clear that “right now” had passed as Josh Rosen was announced to take over the starting QB position ahead of Miami’s first road trip this Sunday against the Cowboys.

Fans had caught intermittent glimpses of Rosen’s abilities through the preseason and he has seen the field during replacement duty in Weeks 1 and 2, so far completing 8/21 passes for 102 yards, 2 INTs and a 38.1% completion percentage.

While Rosen has not yet led the Dolphins to regular season points, the second year passer will find his opportunity to do so in Dallas and the Dolphins will be able to make further evaluation of 2018’s tenth overall pick.

Ryan Fitzpatrick’s veteran standing and experience had given him the early advantage, but the time has arrived in for the Dolphins to see what the future may bring – if anything – for Josh Rosen in Miami.

Whilst the national attention seems to be focused on Chris Grier’s rebuild of the roster, the Dolphins have claimed former first round pick, DE Taco Charlton, released by the Cowboys on Wednesday.

Charlton was the Dallas Cowboys’ first round selection in 2017, having played in 27 games (7 starts) and registered 4.0 sacks and 47 combined tackles.

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Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Cowboys Week Three Preview

Travis Wingfield

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Dolphins Search to Stop the Bleeding in Big D

Who: Dolphins (0-2) at Cowboys (2-0)
When: Sunday September 22, 1:00 PM East
Where: AT&T Stadium — Arlington, TX
Weather: Dome
Vegas Slant: Dolphins +21

The hits keep coming for Miami. Another prominent fixture of the roster has been jettisoned, and another loaded team is on the docket for the downtrodden Dolphins.

This current iteration of the Dallas Cowboys is akin to what Miami hopes to build in a couple years’ time — stout trench play, emerging young quarterback, and star-studded skill positions.

Three touchdown underdogs for the second consecutive week, the Dolphins are introducing college point-spreads into the National Football League. Miami’s 19-point home handicap last week was the biggest such spread for a host team since the 2007 season, and the Dolphins are now channeling the 2013 Broncos-Jaguars game that climbed up over 25 points before betting closed.

The Dolphins were far more competitive last week, even if the scoreboard didn’t show it. Contributions from star Cornerback Xavien Howard, upstart Linebacker Jerome Baker, and surprising recent addition Vince Biegel were the silver linings in the 43-point thrashing; we’re looking for more of those in Dallas.

The Scheme:

Offense:

The switch from Scott Linehan to Kellen Moore might’ve been the biggest upgrade in the NFL this offseason. Moore, a coach’s son that made it to the NFL for his cerebral prowess at the quarterback position, is dressing up Dallas’ offense with disguise, misdirection, and tendency breakers.

Dallas varies it’s running scheme, but the talent to execute simple gap-schemes and power concepts allows Moore to get creative with the play action game. Cowboys players praise Moore for his nuance and emphasis on getting players in position to exhibit their best traits.

Scheming chunk-plays in the passing game, running the football to keep the offense on schedule, and devising red zone concepts to free up pass catchers in the condensed area already has Moore’s name circulating as the next hot head coaching candidate.

Defense:

On top of impeccable front-seven talent, the Cowboys borrow concepts from some of the most accomplished, revolutionary defensive schemes in the history of the league. Rod Marinelli still carries the title of Defensive Coordinator, but it’s a co-op with he and the up-and-coming Kris Richard.

With elements of the Tampa-2 from Marinelli’s days with the Bucs — and more recently in Chicago — fused with Richard’s rendition of the wildly popular scheme originated by Pete Carroll, Dallas is successful in a multitude of packages and pre-snap disguises.

Creating one-on-one rush opportunities from their elite pass rushers, while playing a variety of cover-3, 2, and 1 on the back-end, the Cowboys can apply pressure while dropping seven — the ultimate goal of every NFL defense.

Look for Chad O’Shea to attack this defense with more in-breaking routes. That means high-low and drive concepts (designed to displace zone coverage and attack the middle of cover-1 and Tampa-2 defenses) and seam shots with the Cowboys drop two deep.

The Players:

Offense:

Dak Prescott is off to an MVP-caliber beginning to his 2019 season. Prescott handles pressure in two ways — the type of pressure applied by ferocious fronts, and the pressure of big moments. He’s accurate, creates opportunities off-script, and allows Kellen Moore to utilize designed runs.

Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Then there’s Zeke Elliot, who’s just getting rolling. Zeke, behind arguably the NFL’s best offensive line with the healthy Travis Frederic, Zack Martin, Tyron Smith and La’El Collins, Dallas can line up and push teams off the football.

The Dolphins must get big showings from Davon Godchaux and Christian Wilkins to hold the point-of-attack and free up Jerome Baker and Raekwon McMillan to meet Zeke in the hole.

Amari Cooper is one of the game’s best route runners, and he pairs that with size and speed. He’ll be a tough matchup for Miami, unless Xavien Howard wants to travel with the Cowboys play maker. That opens up another bag of worms, especially as Miami will be working in a new safety alongside corner-convert, Bobby McCain.

Jason Witten is back, but he serves mostly as an additional lineman and the forgotten man in the red zone (as far as the defense is concerned, Witten has two touchdowns already on plays that schemed him wide open). Michael Gallup will miss this game while the resurgent Randal Cobb will help keep the Miami defense honest horizontally in the misdirection game.

Defense:

Jaylon Smith leads the defense with his instinctive, urgent playing style that pairs well with uncommon physical traits. He and Leighton Vander Esch set the tone in the middle of the Dallas defense, and a lot of the scheme is designed to free these two up to wreak havoc. Smith’s athleticism allows Marinelli to keep the Tampa-2 concept alive.

Demarcus Lawrence is set to have a field day. Miami haven’t been able to block anybody this year, and now will have to handle one of the game’s best pass rushers against deafening crowd noise.

Byron Jones has fallen out of favor in Dallas. The dependable Jeff Heath, and the underrated Xavier Woods make it so, while Chidobe Awuzie locks down the opposition’s number one receiver. Dallas’ vulnerability in this position group from the perimeter corner position opposite Awuzie. Jones has been playing corner to pair with slot specialist Jourdan Lewis and Awuzie.

If Miami can create one-on-one passing opportunities into the boundary, look for O’Shea to attack vertically and hope to steal some points — the best bet here is likely Preston Williams.

The Medical:

The Concerns:

Quite literally all over the football field. Dallas can line up with power and milk the Dolphins defense dry. They can attack vertically, or in the controlled passing game with well-timed shot plays built into the offense, all on top of exceptional red zone production in the early going of 2019.

Demarcus Lawrence leads the team in pressures, but he’s only pulled the quarterback down once — that ties the team lead. This Cowboys pass rush is going to be champing at the bit to pad those stats, and there’s no reason to think Miami can handle the relentless pressure, even without blitzing.

The Opportunities:

Special teams might be the one area Miami can spark some magic. The Dolphins are off to a slow start in this department as well, but Jakeem Grant’s big-play ability will be needed if Miami are to pull the miracle upset.

Finding vertical shots — whether it’s Mike Gesicki splitting the Tampa-2, Preston Williams winning an outside release into the boundary without safety help, or getting a fly-by from Grant, Miami needs some fireworks.

The Projected Outcome:

The game plan came together defensively in the first half against the Patriots, but it’s a challenge for even the league’s best stop-units to carry a lifeless offense. Unless the Dolphins can finally sustain some drives and convert in the red zone, this game will get out of hand. It’s doubtful Miami can do that, so look for an aggressive offense that tries to hit the big play.

Dallas just has too much star power and excellent coordinators for Miami to pick them off — or even cover.

Dolphins 6
Cowboys 31

@WingfieldNFL

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