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Staff Predictions: What will the Miami Dolphins do in the first round?

Gabe Hauari

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The first round of the 2019 NFL Draft kicks off tonight, and the Dolphins are picking at lucky No. 13.

Will the Dolphins trade up for a quarterback? Will they trade down and accumulate more draft capital? Or do they decide to stay put and draft the best player on their board?

While the answers to these questions will not come until later tonight, our staff did their best to predict what Chris Grier and Co. will do in the first round.

Kevin Dern

There’s a number of ways Miami could go with the 13th overall pick.  Ultimately, I think they’ll look to try and trade down.  If they do, I have a suspicion it’d be for one of two SEC players – DT Jeffrey Simmons or CB Deandre Baker.  For me, Simmons is so good that he’ll be off the board, so if Miami trades down, I think they’ll select Deandre Baker.  If Miami stays at 13 then I think Greedy Williams will be the name on the card, which would be a slightly surprising move. 

 Both players are from SEC schools – all three of Chris Grier’s first round picks have been:  Tunsil (Mississippi), Harris (Missouri) and Fitzpatrick (Alabama), so why buck the trend? Also, Miami’s defense is going to be heavily reliant on defensive backs using multiple dime, quarter and half dollar packages.  By putting another potentially elite corner opposite Xavien Howard, Miami will have matchup flexibility, which is key in this defense.   

Shawn Digity

I would very much want a trade-down, as would a lot of other Dolphins fans, but I don’t see it working out in this case after Miami has worn it on their sleeve for the entire draft season. I think the Fins will stand pat at 13 after their pick comes down to the wire in trade-down attempts and pick up Jonah Williams. But I’m not complaining; Williams is a plug-and-play player and will boost the offensive line right out of the gate.

Jaymin Stamper

With all the talk of possibly moving up or moving down, I’m of the belief the Miami Dolphins will be staying put come Thursday night. At pick 13 I believe there could be talent on the board they just can’t pass up. 

That’s where Jonah Williams comes in. Williams comes out of Alabama and in my opinion is the best offensive lineman in the 2019 class. He would be a perfect replacement to fill the void left by Ja’Wuan James in free agency, while also being versatile enough to shift inside and play Guard if called upon. 

If Jonah Williams is on the board when the Miami Dolphins are on the clock, he is simply too good to pass up. 

Andrew Mitchell

The Miami Dolphins head into Thursday night looking to bolster their talent as they look to change their fortune for the future. Miami holds the 13th overall pick and could go a number of ways.

Miami is in desperate need of talent at multiple positions which makes their first round pick very flexible. The best option in my opinion is to trade back, accumulate more draft picks, and take the best player available. Ideally Jeffrey Simmons, Garrett Bradbury, or Chauncey Gardner-Johnson.

However, finding a trade partner can be difficult sometimes and I think ultimately Miami stays put and takes the best player available. If by some miracle Ed Oliver falls, he has to be the pick. Realistically, I think Miami ends up with Jawaan Taylor or Jonah Williams and adds to their weak offensive line in preparation for when they take their future signal caller in next years 2020 NFL Draft.

Jason Hrina

Who Do I Want: Ed Oliver

Who Will it Be: Jawaan Taylor

The Miami Dolphins are clearly building towards a big 2020. Between the shiny quarterback class and recent trades, the team is stacking whatever ammunition they need in case Ryan Fitzpatrick wins too many games and they have to trade up to acquire their future franchise QB.

Ideally, the Dolphins trade down and acquire more picks in 2020. If the draft picks aren’t for 2020, utilize the additional 2019 picks to bulk up the offensive and defensive lines. This team needs more than one top-10 prospect to be prominent in a couple years. A few prospects within the top-25 thru top-50 would provide more value and it would get the team better-prepared to make a run while their quarterback is cheap.

If the team does not trade down, I would absolutely love to draft Ed Oliver. He would provide the perfect compliment to Davon Godchaux and Vincent Taylor, and would give Miami the most fearsome defensive tackle group in the AFC East.

However, more realistically, if the Dolphins stay put, who are they drafting? I believe they select someone like Jawaan Taylor…and I would be perfectly content with that. This team needs to solidify their offensive line to ensure their young QB doesn’t suffer the same fate Ryan Tannehill did. Taylor would give Miami two anchors on each end of the offensive line – a unit that desperately needs an upgrade.

I didn’t believe Minkah Fitzpatrick would be available for Miami last season, and I was thrilled his “position uncertainty” caused him to fall. It would be even better if Oliver followed as the unexpected prize this year.

Oliver Candido

As we’ve seen before, Miami has had some elite talent slide to them in recent years. I’d love to see Ed Oliver be the selection, but unfortunately I don’t see any elite talent falling to us. My prediction is Miami swaps picks with Houston and picks Dexter Lawrence at No. 25.

Gabe Hauari

In a perfect world, I would love Kyler Murray, Ed Oliver or Montez Sweat to fall to the Dolphins at 13, but those all seem relatively unlikely. If all of those guys are off the board, Miami would ideally trade back and acquire more second and third round picks, which is where the strength of this draft class lies. I believe Miami will find a team who wants to come up and grab an offensive lineman (Minnesota? Houston?) and, after a trade back, end up with Clemson EDGE Clelin Ferrell.

 

What do you think Miami will do in the first round? Do you agree with our predictions?

A lifelong Dolphins fan, Gabe graduated from Virginia Commonwealth University in December of 2017 with a bachelors of science in mass communications, with a concentration on print & online journalism. He has interned with Source Media in New York City and with the Courier Journal in Louisville, Kentucky. When not watching sports, you can catch Gabe in line at Chipotle or Chick-Fil-A or binge-watching some of his favorite TV shows, such as It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, Archer, or Impractical Jokers. You can follow him on Twitter @GabeHauari.

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  1. Avatar

    Harold C Richardson

    April 25, 2019 at 3:34 pm

    im a looooong time dolphins fan and please chris grier and my buddy old pal mr flores ill give my whole ss security check on clelin ferrel he will be the next lawerence taylor for the fins and make multiple pro bowls I also played defensive end for my jv and was promoted to varsity in my 10th grade year and was the most valuble player for our defence so please please pretty please get him and u want regret it and I got a diamond in the raw qb to be had in the 7 round

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Miami Dolphins

Josh Rosen 2018 Passing Chart – Week 17 at Seattle

Travis Wingfield

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Football, more so than any other sport, requires context to tell the full story. Box scores provide the casual fan with a general idea of the cumulative result of any given game, but without isolating each player’s performance, many details go unnoticed.

This project is entirely based around isolating the play of Josh Rosen. Traditional data points will tell you that his rookie season was one of the worst in the history of the league. Watching each drop back multiple times over, breaking down the most impactful plays, and charting the data that tells the true story, this is the 2018 Josh Rosen charting project.

Jump To:

Week 4 vs. Seattle
Week 5 at San Francisco
Week 6 at Minnesota
Week 7 vs. Denver
Week 8 vs. San Francisco
Week 10 at Kansas City
Week 11 vs. Oakland
Week 12 at LA Chargers
Week 13 at Green Bay
Week 14 vs. Detroit
Week 15 at Atlanta
Week 16 vs. LA Rams
Week 17 at Seattle

Week 17 at Seattle –

By the time this season finale came to an end the entire Cardinals operation had to breathe a sigh of relief. A disaster season, that came to a crashing conclusion, was finally in the rearview. For Josh Rosen, the last month of the season was a recurring nightmare. Rosen threw 146 passes in December and the only one that crossed pay dirt was a busted coverage in this Seattle game.

Some of Rosen’s strong suits didn’t travel to the Pacific Northwest. Throwing into contested windows, play-action passing, and third down conversions each brought back less than satisfactory returns.

The Cardinal passing offense converted 3-of-14 3rd downs. Rosen was 2-of-14 for 23 yards on contested throws and 5-of-10 for 56 yards on play pass.

Rosen was chucking-and-praying once again. The average air yards per throw tallied 10.8 yards, while the Arizona receivers only amassed 51 yards after the catch (34.2% of Rosen’s passing total).

The short passing game was far more fruitful than the vertical attacks.

 

Portion of the Field Accurate Pass/Number of Passes
20+ yards 0/3 (0%)
11-19 yards 0/3 (0%)
0-10 yards (or behind LOS) 11/16 (68.8%)

 

The game was littered with mistakes from the Cardinals QB. Rosen registered 14 mistakes (11 from accuracy, 2 ball security issues, and 1 poor read). Rosen lost two fumbles and had two would-be interceptions dropped by the Seattle defense.

The personnel deployment featured more versatility than recent weeks. Rosen’s passes were supplemented by the following personnel packages.

 

11-personnel 31 snaps
12-personnel 3 snaps
21-personnel 4 snaps

 

As has been the case all season, Rosen was under frequent pressure. Seattle arrived for 11 pressures (6 sacks, 3 hits, 2 hurries) at an average time from snap-to-pressure of 2.19 seconds.

The busted coverage touchdown was Rosen’s one red-zone completion (1-of-3). He was in the gun for 25 snaps and under-center for 13.

Another week, another low conversion rate. The Cardinal passing game converted 8-of-38 plays into first downs (21.1%)

It’s difficult to imagine a more trying rookie season than the one Rosen experienced. The offensive line play was poor, the only consistent pass catcher was Larry Fitzgerald, and Rosen had his own share of rookie mistakes to compound things.

This game goes into the losing performance category marking eight consecutive games that Rosen failed to reach the winning performance category.

 

2018 Performance Results Number of Games
Winning Performance 2 (SEA, SF)
Inconsequential Performance 3 (@MIN, @LAC, @ATL)
Losing Performance 7 (@SF, DEN, @KC, OAK, @GB, DET, LAR, @SEA)

Winning Performance – The QB played well enough to garner a victory. He limited mistakes and made plays in crucial situations.
Inconsequential Performance – More of a game-managing role, the QB didn’t have the big plays, but mistakes were limited.
Losing Performance – The QB limited his team’s ability to win the game with his performance.

@WingfieldNFL

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Miami Dolphins

Josh Rosen 2018 Passing Chart – Week 16 vs. LA Rams

Travis Wingfield

Published

on

Football, more so than any other sport, requires context to tell the full story. Box scores provide the casual fan with a general idea of the cumulative result of any given game, but without isolating each player’s performance, many details go unnoticed.

This project is entirely based around isolating the play of Josh Rosen. Traditional data points will tell you that his rookie season was one of the worst in the history of the league. Watching each drop back multiple times over, breaking down the most impactful plays, and charting the data that tells the true story, this is the 2018 Josh Rosen charting project.

Jump To:

Week 4 vs. Seattle
Week 5 at San Francisco
Week 6 at Minnesota
Week 7 vs. Denver
Week 8 vs. San Francisco
Week 10 at Kansas City
Week 11 vs. Oakland
Week 12 at LA Chargers
Week 13 at Green Bay
Week 14 vs. Detroit
Week 15 at Atlanta
Week 16 vs. LA Rams
Week 17 at Seattle

 

Week 16 vs. LA Rams –

For the second consecutive game Josh Rosen didn’t finish under-center for the Cardinals. In a blowout loss, where it seemed like the entire game plan revolved around making life easy on Josh Rosen, Arizona still managed to get ran out of the building. Mike Glennon completed the final series for the Red Birds offense.

Rosen threw the ball only 23 times, but scrambled more than he has all season. The game plan also featured the least amount of variety, from a personnel grouping standpoint, all season.

 

11-personnel 30 snaps
12-personnel 1 snap

 

Rosen’s typical third down heroics didn’t show up. The Cardinals converted only 2-of-10 third downs in the passing game (one a QB scramble). Converting, as it has been all season, was a challenge in general — Arizona converted just 6-of-31 drop backs (19.4%).

Rosen was in the shotgun almost exclusively (3 under-center, 28 in the gun). This led to a limited play-action passing game (only one throw from play pass).

The four mistakes attributed to Rosen were largely deep shots. He missed on short pass, but two of the three inaccuracies came on balls down the field. One of those deep shots was an ill-advised throw into coverage despite a wide open Larry Fitzgerald coming across the formation (seen in the video thread).

Rosen’s depth splits were as follows:

 

Portion of the Field Accurate Pass/Number of Passes
20+ yards 0/3 (0%)
11-19 yards 0/3 (0%)
0-10 yards (or behind LOS) 11/16 (68.8%)

 

More than half of Rosen’s 87 passing yards came from YAC (54%). The average depth of Rosen’s passes was 9.22 air yards per throw.

Throwing into tight window was a futile effort. Rosen completed 1-of-7 contested throws for 7 yards. Pressure was a regular fixture, yet again, as Rosen was under duress on 11 drop backs (4 sacks, 5 hits, 2 hurries). The average time from snap-to-pressure was 2.30 seconds.

The war of attrition seems to have finally broken the Cardinals spirit. The team’s execution was lacking all year, but this game was something of a “white flag” effort from the coaching staff. Rosen gets tabbed with a losing performance for a lack of big-time plays, a few mistakes, and an awful holistic result.

 

2018 Performance Results Number of Games
Winning Performance 2 (SEA, SF)
Inconsequential Performance 3 (@MIN, @LAC, @ATL)
Losing Performance 6 (@SF, DEN, @KC, OAK, @GB, DET, LAR)

Winning Performance – The QB played well enough to garner a victory. He limited mistakes and made plays in crucial situations.
Inconsequential Performance – More of a game-managing role, the QB didn’t have the big plays, but mistakes were limited.
Losing Performance – The QB limited his team’s ability to win the game with his performance.

@WingfieldNFL

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Miami Dolphins

Josh Rosen 2018 Passing Chart – Week 15 at Atlanta

Travis Wingfield

Published

on

Football, more so than any other sport, requires context to tell the full story. Box scores provide the casual fan with a general idea of the cumulative result of any given game, but without isolating each player’s performance, many details go unnoticed.

This project is entirely based around isolating the play of Josh Rosen. Traditional data points will tell you that his rookie season was one of the worst in the history of the league. Watching each drop back multiple times over, breaking down the most impactful plays, and charting the data that tells the true story, this is the 2018 Josh Rosen charting project.

Jump To:

Week 4 vs. Seattle
Week 5 at San Francisco
Week 6 at Minnesota
Week 7 vs. Denver
Week 8 vs. San Francisco
Week 10 at Kansas City
Week 11 vs. Oakland
Week 12 at LA Chargers
Week 13 at Green Bay
Week 14 vs. Detroit
Week 15 at Atlanta
Week 16 vs. LA Rams
Week 17 at Seattle

 

Week 15 at Atlanta –

We’ve reached the point in the season where the Cardinals coaching staff had to make a switch to prevent further damaging their 21-year-old quarterback. Josh Rosen, under duress all game, with very little help from the route concepts and plan to attack the Atlanta defense, was pulled for Mike Glennon in the fourth quarter.

The Falcons pass rush would’ve crippled the most grizzled veteran in the NFL; it completely debilitated Rosen. The Cardinal QB was under pressure 15-of-27 drop backs (6 sacks, 6 hits, 3 hurries) with an average snap-to-pressure time of 2.17 seconds.

Atlanta’s unrelenting pressure led to a season-low in average air yards per attempt (4.6 AYPT). The Arizona receivers picked up 82 yards after the catch counting for 62.1% of Rosen’s passing total.

Once again, a lopsided scoreboard forced Arizona into very little variety from a personnel grouping standpoint. Rosen was 4-of-5 with 37 yards on non-11-personnel calls. The issue there — Arizona was always in 11-personnell.

 

11-personnel 22 snaps
12-personnel 4 snaps
21-personnel 1 snap

 

Rosen only committed two mistakes in the game (one accuracy, one a poor decision). The biggest mistake was an example of nervous antics in the pocket and a decision Rosen would prefer to have back (available in the Twitter thread).

Rosen was under-center just 5 times (gun 22), and only threw from play action three times; Rosen was 2-of-3 with 13 yards on play pass.

The Arizona offense converted only 18.5% (5-of-27) passing plays into first downs. Throwing into contested windows was a 50-50 proposition — Rosen threw for 68 yards on 4-of-8 passing into tight windows.

Rosen’s depth splits were as follows:

 

Portion of the Field Accurate Pass/Number of Passes
20+ yards 1/1 (100%)
11-19 yards 2/3 (66.7%)
0-10 yards (or behind LOS) 12/15 (80%)

 

It was a miserable day for the Cardinals all the way around. Rosen never stood much of a chance to make a big time paly, or to make a game-changing mistake — but the one time he did make a crucial mistake, the game was already out of reach. This showing goes in the inconsequential column.

 

2018 Performance Results Number of Games
Winning Performance 2 (SEA, SF)
Inconsequential Performance 3 (@MIN, @LAC, @ATL)
Losing Performance 5 (@SF, DEN, @KC, OAK, @GB, DET)

Winning Performance – The QB played well enough to garner a victory. He limited mistakes and made plays in crucial situations.
Inconsequential Performance – More of a game-managing role, the QB didn’t have the big plays, but mistakes were limited.
Losing Performance – The QB limited his team’s ability to win the game with his performance.

@WingfieldNFL

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