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Miami Dolphins

State of the Roster – Quarterbacks

Travis Wingfield

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Prelude

The 2019 off-season schedule had an unusual beginning for the Miami Dolphins. Not that the once proud, winningest organization in the NFL is suddenly new to coaching turnover (quite the opposite, rather). It’s the timing of the hire that provides the distinction from Stephen Ross’ three other head coaching appointments.

Typically, when the incumbent or new staff is in-place by Early-January, the roster dominoes begin to take shape. Waiting for Brian Flores to win his fifth Lombardi Trophy delayed that process by a month.

Now, with the majority of Coach Flores’ staff settling into their new offices, we can begin to speculate and forecast what will transpire over the next three months.

It’s not hyperbole to say that these next three months are the most important of Chris Grier’s professional career. Miami’s new General Manager is charged with resurrecting a franchise that, in the last 15 years, has fallen from the peak of the winning percentage mountain top, all the way down to fifth place on that obscure, yet illustrious list.

In this series we are going to explore the current assets on the roster and what their futures hold. Plus, we’ll explore the free-agency market and point out scheme fit pieces the Dolphins might seek to add in April’s draft.

Quarterbacks

Current Cash Owed: ~ $19 Million
NFL Average: ~ $22 Million

Players Under Contract – 2019 Cash Owed:

Ryan Tannehill – $17.5 M

Tannehill’s 2018 season couldn’t have gone any worse. One year removed from reconstructive knee surgery, Tannehill added shoulder and ankle injuries to an already concerning medical history. Aside from the physical ailments, Tannehill’s mental processing regressed from an already inauspicious position.

In Adam Gase’s offense plays are designed to free up one receiver with the defense dictating the secondary options coming open. Tannehill’s success in 2016 came outside of this formula attacking defenses from 12-personnel, play-action, and plenty of deception. For three years Gase tried to jam this square peg into a round hole and now, seven years after he was selected 8th overall, Miami are set to move on from the former A&M Aggie.

Tannehill Projected 2019 Action: Cut

Jake Rudock – $645 K

Spending his first three years of his career in Detroit (and first two years under present Dolphins Staffer Jim Caldwell), Rudock spent 2018 on the practice squad. Failing to beat out Matt Cassel for the backup gig could’ve been the death blow to Rudock’s career and Miami might be the last chance for the former Michigan Wolverine.

Rudock Projected 2019 Action: 3rd QB (unless only two are kept – ineligible for the practice squad)

Luke Falk – $480 K

The Washington State (Go Cougs) grad’s legend is more attractive than his body of work. Spending 2018 on injured reserve after being cut as a sixth-round pick of the Tennessee Titans, Falk’s value has been trending downward since his dazzling junior season at Wazzu.

Falk is limited physically (arm and athleticism), lacks an inherent sense for pressure and occupied rush lanes, and eats far too many sacks. He’s a developmental prospect who, at best, will play out the string of his career as a backup.

Falk Projected 2019 Action: Cut/Practice Squad

Pending Free Agents – 2018 Salary

David Fales – $880 K

The writing is pretty clearly on the wall for Fales’ future in Miami. His connection to the organization (Adam Gase) is now gone. Even still, Gase wouldn’t hand the keys to Fales after multiple miserable starts from Brock Osweiler.

Fales Projected 2019 Action: Not re-signed

Brock Osweiler – $880 K

Like Fales, Osweiler’s connection to the Dolphins departed for an AFC East rival. We’ll always have Brocktober circa 2018.

Osweiler Projected 2019 Action: Not re-signed

2019 Quarterback Free Agent Market (Plus Presumed Available Veterans)

 

Player 2018 Team 2018 Salary Projected 2019 Value
Teddy Bridgewater New Orleans $6,000,000 Starter/Bridge QB
Tyrod Taylor Cleveland $15,250,000 Backup/Bridge QB
Ryan Fitzpatrick Tampa Bay $3,300,000 Backup QB

 

Potential Secondary Quarterback Market (cuts, trades, etc.)

 

Player 2018 Team 2019 Cash Due Projected 2019 Value
Nick Foles Philadelphia $20,000,000 Franchise QB
Jacoby Brissett Indianapolis $2,045,000 Starter/Spot-Starter
Joe Flacco Baltimore $20,500,000 Starter/Bridge QB
Andy Dalton Cincinnati $16,200,000 Starter/Bridge QB

 

Nick Foles’ option is being picked up by the Eagles so we can cross that name off the list – Miami was never going to pay Foles, let alone send over draft compensation for his services.

Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton are lateral moves (though I would argue that are regression moves) to what Miami had in 2018.

Ryan Fitzpatrick might make sense from a financial standpoint and provides a veteran presence for the rookie quarterback Miami will ultimately select. The same should be said of Teddy Bridgewater, though the Miami native offers far more upside.

Jacoby Brissett is the easiest connection to make. He played under current Dolphins offensive staffers Chad O’Shea and Jerry Schuplinski in New England, his 2019 figure is lower than that of a first-round rookie, and he offers as much upside as anyone on this list. The one issue could be draft compensation as Miami likely won’t be trading away anything on day-one or day-two.

2019 Draft Eligible Quarterbacks (Projected rounds 1-3)

 

Player School Projected Draft Value
Dwayne Haskins Ohio State Top 10
Drew Lock Missouri Top 15
Kyler Murray Oklahoma Top 20
Daniel Jones Duke Round 1-2
Will Grier West Virginia Round 2-3
Jarrett Stidham Auburn Round 2-4
Brett Rypien Boise State Round 3-4

 

One name stands out above the rest on this list – Kyler Murray. Dwayne Haskins is a scheme fit with his established success in a mesh-scheme style offense that is predicated on pre-snap reads and quick, accurate throws to the short and intermediate portions of the field.

Haskins figures to be the first QB selected and long gone by the time Miami goes on the clock.

Murray’s indecision, lack of prototypical height, and antiquated NFL evaluators still holding high-ranking positions could afford Miami its greatest lottery win since Dan Marino tumbled down the board in 1983. Murray is a game-breaking, dual-threat talent that could instantly turn around the franchise.

The rest of this list lacks a true franchise altering presence.

2019 Quarterback Roster Prediction:

The other 31 teams have a better quarterback outlook as of press-time. With Tannehill’s firing imminent, Falk is the only player under contract. The Dolphins have to add at least two bodies, likely three, by the time rookie mini-camps open in Early-May.

The powers that be can leak the tank operation as much as they wish, but quarterback is certainly in-play come draft-day – especially at pick 13.

My prediction is that a rookie and free agent addition battle for the starting job with the loser taking the clipboard role.

1.) Free Agent/Rookie
2.) Free Agent/Rookie
3.) Jake Rudock

Tomorrow: Running Backs

@WingfieldNFL

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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Mike

    February 7, 2019 at 10:10 pm

    I suspect a lot of people won’t agree but why not try to bring Kaepernick at League minimum plus incentives and rookie(s). If nothing else, invite him to training camp and see what he can do. That way you could get a proven vet at a cheap price and can groom your picks.

  2. Avatar

    PapaPickett

    February 14, 2019 at 10:57 pm

    Couldnt disagree more here. Drafting Murray would be a waste of a first round pick. Its not his innability to throw at his size that should be concerning, its the fact that he gives up over 100 plus pounds to the guys that will be hitting him earlier and often. On top of that, he runs the ball which initiates even more contact. His arm talent is below at least 3 QBs from last year, arguably more. People like his legs. I want a QB who throws, not runs. If he has a little success he’ll kill our chances to draft a great one next year (Herbert). If hes terrible we draft Herbert anyway and waste this years #13 overall.

    Anyone remember our last undersized QB who liked to run and also played baseball? He didnt last to long. And he was bigger than Murray.

    Now this is where you get to beat me up. I think we should keep Tanny next year. Were already paying him 13 mil even if hes cut so why dedicate additional resources to a stop gap when we need a rookie at some point anyway? Tannehill had his worst season last year and he would be due to go back towards his average, average self next year. He is our best stop gap and were paying him anyway. Might as well have him play. Otherwise costs and situations could force into bad decisions. Someone has to play QB, so cutting a solid starter just for the public relations or the symbolicsm of a fresh start is not a great idea.

    Now we know hes not the future but hes held down the fort 7 years. One more wouldnt be so bad.

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Miami Dolphins

Taco Charlton: New Acquisition Analysis

Travis Wingfield

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Dolphins go back to the 2017 first round defensive end well, claim Charlton from waivers

The 2017 Dolphins were, sadly, one of the more anticipated teams this organization has assembled in recent memory. Fresh off a surprise 10-win season, heading into year-two of the new system, and bevy of players returning from injury had fans feeling optimistic.

Patching up the perceived holes on the roster — like the defensive end position — started with an atrocious Andre Branch extension, and ended on the draft’s opening night with a handful of edge rusher prospects ripe for picking.

Derek Barnett came off the board before Miami could pluck the future Super Bowl hero, but everyone else was available. Jonathan Allen was selected five picks ahead of the Dolphins, but he was billed more as a three and five-technique inside player, not a true edge rusher.

That left Charles Harris, Taco Charlton, Tak McKinley and T.J. Watt. Two of those players are off to sterling starts in their young careers — the other two are nearing their respective last legs, and both are now Miami Dolphins.

Charlton received his release from the Cowboys earlier this week after an under-whelming 34-game stay in Big D. Taco’s snap count is revealing of the feeling about the player among the Dallas staff.

 

Year Taco Charlton Defensive Snaps Played (% of Cowboys’ Defensive Snaps)
2017 399 (38.2%)
2018 401 (39.2%)
2019 0

 

A 40-percent snap-taker is typically indicative of one of two things for an edge player. He’s either a situational savant — whether that’s to support the run game or pin his ears back and get after the quarterback — or that he’s the second option in the rotation, A.K.A. a backup.

Charlton’s production suggests that he was the latter, and only because of his draft status. His descent into a game day inactive signaled the end of his time with the club that drafted him.

Rumors of a trade were speculated as the reason Charlton was a healthy scratch for the season’s first two games, but Head Coach Jason Garrett referred to the numbers game. “We have 10 guys on the active roster on the defensive line and we dressed eight for the game. It felt like the guys we had up there gave us the best chance,” Garrett said via a report from Bloggin’ The Boys.

Still, we have 800 reps to look at to figure out where it went wrong for Charlton, and if he possesses a legitimate shot to fit this scheme and carve out spot in the future plans of the NFL’s most steadfast rebuild operation.

First, let’s start with the type of player Charlton was supposed to be coming out of Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan program.

The Dolphins are a team that adheres strongly to prototypes all over the field, but particularly in the trenches. Explosive metrics aren’t nearly as important as length, strength, read-and-react skillsets, intelligence to process and execute a variety of roles (stunts, twists, slants, picks), and most importantly, playing with heavy hands.

His fit begins with his build. At 6’6’’, 270-pounds with 34.5-inch arms, Charlton looks like plenty of defensive ends in a Brian Flores (Bill Belichick defense) before him. Charlton doesn’t check off all those boxes from the previous paragraph, but he hits enough of the buzz words to justify a flier.

This from Lance Zierlein of NFL Media.

That immediate get-off and quickness would’ve suited him better in Miami’s wide-9 alignment under Matt Burke. The length will benefit him, especially as he forces tackles to quickly get into their pass sets. The challenge will be developing a secondary move to work back inside and underneath the tackle.

The glowing praise for his twist, bend, and lower-body control will serve him well in a defense that will stunt, stunt, and stunt some more.

Most of all, the length will help him excel in this scheme as a run defender. To lock out and hold the point of attack are keys, and those are areas that put Charlton on the map as a first-round prospect.

The weaknesses from that blurb are alarming. Getting washed out of his gap by power and allowing blockers into his frame will earn him a quick ticket right out of town — those are the departments where the surprise cuts in Nate Orchard and Dewayne Hendrix struggled.

Lack of consistency, takes plays off, needs a coach that will push him — those are the final takeaways from Zierlein’s conversation with an anonymous AFC Executive.

If there’s any one thing you can point to with Flores as far as his football acumen — this excludes leadership and communication — it’s his ability to coach football (novel idea, huh?) This feels like a Flores pet project.

Let’s get into some of Charlton’s Dallas tenure, starting with his metrics from Pro Football Focus.

Charlton has 38 total pressures in his two years as a pro (4 sacks, 8 hits, 26 hurries). He compiled those numbers on 464 pass rush reps, a pressure on 8.2% of his pass rush snaps — not good. His 4.1 weighted pass rush productivity mark in 2018 ranked 132ndamong all edge rushers.

Charlton missed four tackles on 34 opportunities — an 11.8 missed tackle percentage, also not good. He made 23 run-stops on 346 snaps against the ground game. That mark — 6.6% — landed Charlton at 73rd among edge defenders in 2018, and 143rd in 2017.

The majority of Charlton’s work came from the right side of the defensive line (position vacated by Robert Quinn, currently held by a cast of many in Miami). Charlton lined up for pass rushing situations on the right side for 67.3% of his total reps.

Now, for the tape.

If Charlton can piece together the finer points of his game and develop a better arsenal or rush moves, he’ll stick as a building block. The decreased workload this year, his lack of production dating back to college, and inconsistencies makes one wonder about the drive and work habits.

We’ll quickly find out about the character of Charlton. If he embraces this opportunity, it’s a great landing spot for him. If not, he’ll be back on the unemployment line in short order.

@WingfieldNFL

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Miami Dolphins

Josh Rosen Named Starting QB vs Cowboys; Claim DE Taco Charlton

Chris Kowalewski

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Only minutes after the Miami Dolphins’ Week 2 loss against the Patriots, Head Coach Brian Flores maintained that Ryan Fitzpatrick was the starting quarterback… “Right now”.

By Thursday afternoon, it became clear that “right now” had passed as Josh Rosen was announced to take over the starting QB position ahead of Miami’s first road trip this Sunday against the Cowboys.

Fans had caught intermittent glimpses of Rosen’s abilities through the preseason and he has seen the field during replacement duty in Weeks 1 and 2, so far completing 8/21 passes for 102 yards, 2 INTs and a 38.1% completion percentage.

While Rosen has not yet led the Dolphins to regular season points, the second year passer will find his opportunity to do so in Dallas and the Dolphins will be able to make further evaluation of 2018’s tenth overall pick.

Ryan Fitzpatrick’s veteran standing and experience had given him the early advantage, but the time has arrived in for the Dolphins to see what the future may bring – if anything – for Josh Rosen in Miami.

Whilst the national attention seems to be focused on Chris Grier’s rebuild of the roster, the Dolphins have claimed former first round pick, DE Taco Charlton, released by the Cowboys on Wednesday.

Charlton was the Dallas Cowboys’ first round selection in 2017, having played in 27 games (7 starts) and registered 4.0 sacks and 47 combined tackles.

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Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Cowboys Week Three Preview

Travis Wingfield

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Dolphins Search to Stop the Bleeding in Big D

Who: Dolphins (0-2) at Cowboys (2-0)
When: Sunday September 22, 1:00 PM East
Where: AT&T Stadium — Arlington, TX
Weather: Dome
Vegas Slant: Dolphins +21

The hits keep coming for Miami. Another prominent fixture of the roster has been jettisoned, and another loaded team is on the docket for the downtrodden Dolphins.

This current iteration of the Dallas Cowboys is akin to what Miami hopes to build in a couple years’ time — stout trench play, emerging young quarterback, and star-studded skill positions.

Three touchdown underdogs for the second consecutive week, the Dolphins are introducing college point-spreads into the National Football League. Miami’s 19-point home handicap last week was the biggest such spread for a host team since the 2007 season, and the Dolphins are now channeling the 2013 Broncos-Jaguars game that climbed up over 25 points before betting closed.

The Dolphins were far more competitive last week, even if the scoreboard didn’t show it. Contributions from star Cornerback Xavien Howard, upstart Linebacker Jerome Baker, and surprising recent addition Vince Biegel were the silver linings in the 43-point thrashing; we’re looking for more of those in Dallas.

The Scheme:

Offense:

The switch from Scott Linehan to Kellen Moore might’ve been the biggest upgrade in the NFL this offseason. Moore, a coach’s son that made it to the NFL for his cerebral prowess at the quarterback position, is dressing up Dallas’ offense with disguise, misdirection, and tendency breakers.

Dallas varies it’s running scheme, but the talent to execute simple gap-schemes and power concepts allows Moore to get creative with the play action game. Cowboys players praise Moore for his nuance and emphasis on getting players in position to exhibit their best traits.

Scheming chunk-plays in the passing game, running the football to keep the offense on schedule, and devising red zone concepts to free up pass catchers in the condensed area already has Moore’s name circulating as the next hot head coaching candidate.

Defense:

On top of impeccable front-seven talent, the Cowboys borrow concepts from some of the most accomplished, revolutionary defensive schemes in the history of the league. Rod Marinelli still carries the title of Defensive Coordinator, but it’s a co-op with he and the up-and-coming Kris Richard.

With elements of the Tampa-2 from Marinelli’s days with the Bucs — and more recently in Chicago — fused with Richard’s rendition of the wildly popular scheme originated by Pete Carroll, Dallas is successful in a multitude of packages and pre-snap disguises.

Creating one-on-one rush opportunities from their elite pass rushers, while playing a variety of cover-3, 2, and 1 on the back-end, the Cowboys can apply pressure while dropping seven — the ultimate goal of every NFL defense.

Look for Chad O’Shea to attack this defense with more in-breaking routes. That means high-low and drive concepts (designed to displace zone coverage and attack the middle of cover-1 and Tampa-2 defenses) and seam shots with the Cowboys drop two deep.

The Players:

Offense:

Dak Prescott is off to an MVP-caliber beginning to his 2019 season. Prescott handles pressure in two ways — the type of pressure applied by ferocious fronts, and the pressure of big moments. He’s accurate, creates opportunities off-script, and allows Kellen Moore to utilize designed runs.

Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Then there’s Zeke Elliot, who’s just getting rolling. Zeke, behind arguably the NFL’s best offensive line with the healthy Travis Frederic, Zack Martin, Tyron Smith and La’El Collins, Dallas can line up and push teams off the football.

The Dolphins must get big showings from Davon Godchaux and Christian Wilkins to hold the point-of-attack and free up Jerome Baker and Raekwon McMillan to meet Zeke in the hole.

Amari Cooper is one of the game’s best route runners, and he pairs that with size and speed. He’ll be a tough matchup for Miami, unless Xavien Howard wants to travel with the Cowboys play maker. That opens up another bag of worms, especially as Miami will be working in a new safety alongside corner-convert, Bobby McCain.

Jason Witten is back, but he serves mostly as an additional lineman and the forgotten man in the red zone (as far as the defense is concerned, Witten has two touchdowns already on plays that schemed him wide open). Michael Gallup will miss this game while the resurgent Randal Cobb will help keep the Miami defense honest horizontally in the misdirection game.

Defense:

Jaylon Smith leads the defense with his instinctive, urgent playing style that pairs well with uncommon physical traits. He and Leighton Vander Esch set the tone in the middle of the Dallas defense, and a lot of the scheme is designed to free these two up to wreak havoc. Smith’s athleticism allows Marinelli to keep the Tampa-2 concept alive.

Demarcus Lawrence is set to have a field day. Miami haven’t been able to block anybody this year, and now will have to handle one of the game’s best pass rushers against deafening crowd noise.

Byron Jones has fallen out of favor in Dallas. The dependable Jeff Heath, and the underrated Xavier Woods make it so, while Chidobe Awuzie locks down the opposition’s number one receiver. Dallas’ vulnerability in this position group from the perimeter corner position opposite Awuzie. Jones has been playing corner to pair with slot specialist Jourdan Lewis and Awuzie.

If Miami can create one-on-one passing opportunities into the boundary, look for O’Shea to attack vertically and hope to steal some points — the best bet here is likely Preston Williams.

The Medical:

The Concerns:

Quite literally all over the football field. Dallas can line up with power and milk the Dolphins defense dry. They can attack vertically, or in the controlled passing game with well-timed shot plays built into the offense, all on top of exceptional red zone production in the early going of 2019.

Demarcus Lawrence leads the team in pressures, but he’s only pulled the quarterback down once — that ties the team lead. This Cowboys pass rush is going to be champing at the bit to pad those stats, and there’s no reason to think Miami can handle the relentless pressure, even without blitzing.

The Opportunities:

Special teams might be the one area Miami can spark some magic. The Dolphins are off to a slow start in this department as well, but Jakeem Grant’s big-play ability will be needed if Miami are to pull the miracle upset.

Finding vertical shots — whether it’s Mike Gesicki splitting the Tampa-2, Preston Williams winning an outside release into the boundary without safety help, or getting a fly-by from Grant, Miami needs some fireworks.

The Projected Outcome:

The game plan came together defensively in the first half against the Patriots, but it’s a challenge for even the league’s best stop-units to carry a lifeless offense. Unless the Dolphins can finally sustain some drives and convert in the red zone, this game will get out of hand. It’s doubtful Miami can do that, so look for an aggressive offense that tries to hit the big play.

Dallas just has too much star power and excellent coordinators for Miami to pick them off — or even cover.

Dolphins 6
Cowboys 31

@WingfieldNFL

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