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The Book on Josh Rosen’s 2018 Rookie Campaign

Travis Wingfield

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The internet’s most detailed, comprehensive scouting report on new Miami Dolphins Quarterback Josh Rosen’s Rookie Season

Jump To:

The Final Report (2018 Cumulative Data)
Week 4 vs. Seattle
Week 5 at San Francisco
Week 6 at Minnesota
Week 7 vs. Denver
Week 8 vs. San Francisco
Week 10 at Kansas City
Week 11 vs. Oakland
Week 12 at LA Chargers
Week 13 at Green Bay
Week 14 vs. Detroit
Week 15 at Atlanta
Week 16 vs. LA Rams
Week 17 at Seattle

The 20th time’s a charm — at least that’s the hope for Josh Rosen among a Dolphins fan base starved for a solution at quarterback. Miami acquired the baby-faced, misunderstood UCLA product as a result of some clever draft-day dealings, and he now assumes that unenviable task that 20 others before him have failed to do — to replace Dan Marino.

Day-two of the 2019 NFL Draft began with a rumor that the Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals were finalizing a deal that would send the embattled 13-game starter of 2018’s worst team, to 2019’s projected last place finisher.

The value of that initial, reported trade was dubious, but General Manager Chris Grier orchestrated the deal of the weekend by extracting Rosen from the desert while acquiring future assets in the process. Part of a two-trade operation, Miami wound up spending the 62nd-pick, and a 2020 fifth-round pick, to acquire Rosen along with a 2020 second-rounder from the New Orleans Saints.

Conflating the value of multiple trades into one culminating dividend isn’t everybody’s cup of tea, but the end result is difficult to ignore. Grier, and his newly restructured front office, continues to maximize the remaining value of the previous regimes wrongdoings.

After years of offseason championships, met with criticism from the majority of national publications, the 2019 Dolphins ushered in a new era with unanimous approval.

Josh Rosen’s 16-game audition will ultimately decide the winner-loser-dynamic of the trade. The beauty of the NFL comes via its unpredictable nature. Extenuating circumstances bring validity to either side of the Great Tannehill Rosen Debate. Volume statistics paint an ominous forecast for Rosen in the aqua and orange; while the precarious situation in Arizona did little to mitigate Rosen’s own shortcomings.

Regardless of Rosen’s 2019 performance, the Dolphins have three years of club control, on a top-10 pick, for a fraction of the current market value for said asset. A worst-case scenario would result in a backup quarterback playing on a contract far more team-friendly than the current going-rate for clipboard-holder services.

Professionals far more intelligent than you or I insist that past performance is not indicative of future results. In this line of work, however, all we have to work on is the previous evidence.

Without further ado, this is the evidence Josh Rosen gave us in 2018:

The Analytical Data

The term charting refers to much more than plotting the passes on a football-field-style-graph. In addition to that aspect of the project, I chart personnel groupings, field/boundary throws, pressure metrics, play-action numbers — the entire gamut.

Those numbers are not kind to Josh Rosen’s rookie season.

Depth splits (does not include throwaways, clock plays, or no-plays via penalty):

Portion of the Field Accurate Pass/Number of Passes
20+ yards 13/37 (35.1%)
11-19 yards 42/80 (52.5%)
0-10 yards (or behind LOS) 170/231 (73.6%)
Total 225/348 (64.7%)

 

Personnel Grouping Splits:

Personnel Snaps Statistics
11 338 186/278 (66.9%) 1,707 yards, 6 TDs, 12 INTs, 72.6 rating
12 54 27/49 (55.1%) 421 yards, 5 TDs, 2 INTs, 100.8 rating
21 11 6/11 (54.5%) 50 yards
13 6 4/6 (66.7%) 88 yards
20 2 1/2, 11 yards
22 1 1/1, 1 yard
23 1 0/1

 

Conversion Numbers:

Situational Drop Backs Conversion Rate
3rd and 4th Down 39/138 (28.3%)
All Downs 116/413 (28.1%)
Red Zone 11/22 accuracy (4 TDs, 0 INTs)

 

Advanced contested, play-action and pressure numbers:

Situational Drop Backs Statistics
Contested Throws 39/123 (31.7%) 545 yards, 1 TD, 4 INTs, 36.1 rating
Play Action 44/86 (51.2%) 655 yards, 5 TDs, 2 INTs, 86.1 rating
Under Pressure 48/114 (42.1%) 513 yards, 1 TD, 5 INTs, 40.6 rating

 

Additional Pressure Numbers:

Situational Drop Backs Statistics
Drop Back Pressure % 40.1% of drop backs
Sacks 44
Hits 75
Hurries 40
Average Snap-to-Pressure Time 2.29 seconds

 

Josh Rosen 2018 Air Yards Average 8.20 Air Yards Per Throw

 

The All-22 Strengths

Mechanics, spin, and drive – Rosen arrived on the campus at UCLA with the moniker “The Chosen One” because of his mechanical refinement. A five-star recruit, raised in an environment of passing camps and year-round training, Rosen’s astute mechanics begin with his foundation – the feet.

Rosen displays active feet in the pocket with hips hardwired to his eyes (allows him to maintain a threatening position as he scans through his progressions). He squares up to his target and typically transfers his weight seamlessly and successfully (except in one, unique instance that we’ll cover in the weaknesses portion).

Through these qualities, Rosen has developed a penchant for driving the ball to the field-side of the formation on deeper routes (comebacks, out-breaking routes, back-shoulder throws). He also displays the requisite spin to strategically get the ball over the top of underneath defenders, but with enough torque and spin to drop it in underneath the deep defender.

Variety of throws in the tool bag, and the knowledge for when to use each one – Different routes require different throws. Different defensive leverage can alter the appropriate times for said throws, and Rosen has an innate knowledge for when to use those different throws.

The wheel is a great example of one route that can require varying types of throws. If the deep safety rolls coverage away from the wheel, the QB can use touch and trajectory to drop the ball in deep down the field. If that window is tighter, however, the QB needs to stick the ball on the target with pinpoint accuracy and velocity (see Rosen’s TD pass at KC in Week 10).

Rosen showcases this skill on seam throws as well. These throws often come against bracket coverage that features a linebacker in trail technique with a safety over the top in cover-1, 2, 3, and 4. Rosen can effectively throw his target open despite the tight coverage in these instances.

Subtle movement to create clean platforms – The Arizona pass protection became so dire that Rosen began to anticipate breakdowns. Rosen could often find, and get to, clean areas of the pocket after failed protection, and deliver the ball on time.

Keeps eyes downfield under the rush – A byproduct of the above skill, Rosen doesn’t succumb to the same pitfalls that can consume young quarterbacks. He had plenty of opportunities to evade the rush immediately upon getting to the top of his drop. Rosen inherently looks to climb, opposed to escaping out the front-side or back-side, and has the required choppy footwork, and crossover step, to effectively get to cleaner platforms.

Even when presented with green grass ahead, after stepping up through the pressure, Rosen works laterally to survey his progressions. This combination of traits allows Rosen to effectively deliver the football under the face of pressure.

Post-snap defensive manipulation and ball-handling – One of Rosen’s biggest strengths comes from passing off of play-action. One way to force linebackers to overcommit to the dummy-run, is the validity of the ball fake from the quarterback. Rosen is trained in extending the football to imitate the same mechanics of a handoff.

But it’s Rosen’s work to displace zone coverage that stands out above all. He often uses pump fakes, subtle upper-body movement (shoulder shakes), and his eyes to keep the defense where he wants it.

Windows close as fast as they open at this level. Finding space in the hook zones often requires the QB to hold a safety with his eyes, or move a linebacker with that subtle body movement. Rosen showcased this ability in his very first start.

Gamer (third and long, fourth quarter) – On multiple occasions Rosen was having a difficult start to games during his rookie season. Then, when the Cards were behind on the scoreboard and the down-and-distance, Rosen’s play improved. Typically, he was at his best on third-and-long or in the fourth quarter with the game in the balance.

This trait tracks back to his final year at UCLA when he engineered one of college football’s greatest all-time comebacks against Texas A&M. These are unteachable traits that are either embedded in the player or not. It was not with Tannehill — it is with Rosen.

The All-22 Weaknesses

Accuracy in the short-intermediate areas – A trend developed over the course of 2018. Rosen would often sail passes in the short areas, in either direction, but more frequently to the left. On top of throwing the ball high, Rosen was culpable for miss-placing the football on the wrong hip/shoulder on basic flat routes, stick routes, and speed-outs preventing his target from creating after the catch — or worse – -resulting in drops.

The primary culprit for this flaw is a mechanical one. Rosen’s weight-transfer and gait is often very astute, but the quick set-ups (shotgun catch-rock-throw, or three-step drops from under-center) will see Rosen pull his front shoulder open because of the lead foot misdirecting his lead hip, and thus taking his upper-body of course. Again, it all starts with the foundation.

This mechanical flaw results in the arm-angle dropping, which causes the football to go high. Rosen works tirelessly on off-platform throws so this could improve with repetition.

Timing and anticipation – These are perhaps the two most crucial traits for NFL quarterbacks. Trusting the eyes, trusting the read, and throwing based on leverage and anticipation are qualities found in all the best QBs. Often times, Rosen is late to see the development of the route and pulls the trigger after the receiver has moved from the top (the stem) of the route.

This allows the defensive back to drive on throws and contest what would otherwise be an open window. Sprint rollouts, hitch and curl routes, and even throwing down the field with built-in shot plays showcased a shortcoming in this area for Rosen.

Athleticism – Rosen isn’t going to threaten the defense with his scrambling ability. What’s more, he can get heavy-footed when these two events occur simultaneously: 1.) The pass rush closes in and, 2.) Coverage is tight. Rosen had a propensity to double and triple hitch during his climb up the pocket, and his feet go dead when indecision sets it. Most quarterbacks are going to get beat in this area. Few show the ability to escape these treacherous waters — Rosen is not one of those few.

There are instances where Rosen had an escape route, and attempted to flee accordingly, but was caught from behind by the pursuit. Designed runs are not an option with Rosen at the controls.

Making plays off script – A byproduct of the above trait, if Rosen has to evade a rush and make a play on a broken route, it’s not likely to happen. There are moments when Rosen does find the big play off-script, it’s just not a common occurrence — especially compared to some of his counterparts at the position — including the guy replacing him in Arizona.

Decision making – Rosen is normally adept at identifying pre-snap disguise, but he shows a penchant for panicking when things go off-schedule. A lot of young quarterbacks will press the issue in these situations and Rosen is no exception. A fair number of his interceptions came from failing to identify a robber or combination coverages.

Ball security – Rosen fumbled the ball 10 times on 438 drop backs. He doesn’t demonstrate a strong grip on the football amidst a pass rush that’s closing-in, and tends to get loose with the ball when attempting to evade pressure. Rosen was solely to blame for several sacks turning into turnovers last season.

Failing to take what the defense gives – As evidence by the lofty air-yards-per-throw figure, Rosen often plays for keeps on the deep pass. Multiple times, in 2018, Rosen had check downs available, yet still forced the football down the field into coverage. This is another easily correctable trait and one that the Dolphins Staff will certainly drill into the 22-year-old’s knowledge database.

How to Set Rosen up for Success

Line of scrimmage autonomy – Former NFL Quarterback, and current renowned QB analyst, Trent Dilfer has been raving about the fit for Rosen in Offensive Coordinator Chad O’Shea’s system. As Dilfer describes it, it’s an academic scheme that challenges the quarterback by empowering him as the most important player on the field.

From the Inside the Film Room piece from February, we learned the nuances of the new scheme coming from Foxboro to South Florida. Concise phrases that gives the quarterback full control over his pre-snap conditions will give the astute Rosen the keys to the offense.

12 personnel, play action heavy game – Miami made some considerable hay last year working with 12-personnel packages featuring the High-Five Bros, Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant. That pairing provides Rosen with speed on the edges, but the personnel grouping will accentuate his prowess attacking down the seams and throwing against matchup based looks, despite his less-than-stellar statistics in these areas.

The 12-personnel package’s (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) primary objective is to keep the base defense on the field. Picture it this way, if you will. The Patriots run 12-personnel against the Dolphins because they knew it would often put Rob Gronkowski on Reshad Jones, and James White on Kiko Alonso.

Rosen excels at attacking linebackers in coverage with his refined ball placement on throws to larger targets in contested windows.

Attempt to develop a rhythm early – Rosen was extremely streaky in 2018. When he heated up, there wasn’t a throw he couldn’t make. Frequent three-and-out’s and limited success in the run led to far-too-many possessions where Rosen had one opportunity to make a play.

Using the backs in the swing/flat game. Using the electric, game-breaking wide outs on tunnel, bubble and slip screens can help Rosen mitigate those cold streaks and develop his rhythm early in games.

Identify match-ups and go after them – That’s the crux of the entire offense and it plays into the strengths of the new Miami quarterback. Running backs in the passing game, linebackers chasing tight ends up the seam after re-route attempts, and dictating deep safety help with the speed on the perimeter, Rosen has a cupboard stocked full of matchup nightmares — the Dolphins would be wise to use them…unlike the previous staff.

What Rosen Must Do to Prevent the Dolphins from Drafting his Replacement

Develop a trusting relationship with Chad O’Shea – Although it’s probably trauma inducing, think back to the game in Indianapolis this past season. Adam Gase showed Dolphins fans his exact feelings about the quarterback position when he took the ball out of Ryan Tannehill’s hands in crunch time.

Chad O’Shea and Josh Rosen need to be a perfect pairing from the word go. The way they communicate, the mutual respect between the two, getting comfortable with the uncomfortable, these two men must challenge each other in ways that bring the best out of one another.

This isn’t something we can’t quantify as fans, or even journalists. It’s an organic development that will either occur — or not — behind closed doors. When Miami is up against it in a crucial spot on any given Sunday this fall, that’s when we’ll know how the relationship has developed and progressed.

Elevate the play of his teammates – Strengths have a way of mitigating weaknesses in sports. Yes, a team is often only as strong as its weakest links, but therein lies opportunities to minimize the peril of weak spots on a football team. By the same token, there are opportunities to put the onus on the play makers in the offense. Albert Wilson, Jakeem Grant, Kenny Stills, Kenyan Drake; all proven big-play threats at this level. Rosen would be wise to take on the role of distributor and let these play makers do what they do best.

Demonstrate growth from opening day to week 17 – Mistakes are inevitable just as impressionable throws are certain to excite the fan base. What Rosen needs to do, to prove to the coaching staff that he’s an ascending player, is to limit the mistakes as the year goes along and show growth in the positive areas from the beginning to the end of the season.

It sounds obvious, but there needs to be a discernible difference between the Rosen we see in September, and the Rosen we see in December. Unless, of course, he comes out like an MVP from day-one — in that case, who cares?

The Upshot

Football fandom has undergone an evolution in the social media age. Victory is rivaled by the fan’s own individual nefarious purpose, i.e. hitting for a high average on the proverbial hot take machine.

Fans would be wise to put aside their preconceived notions with this 22-year-old quarterback. If Rosen is in fact the chosen one, the Dolphins will enter the 2020 offseason flush with resources, and a solution at the most important position in sports.

If Rosen is in fact the answer to the two-decade long search, Miami goes from bottom-barrel, tanking-accused, to offseason darling with unlimited upside in the span of one year — a turnaround that bests even the 2008 Miami Dolphins.

After nearly 20 years of torture, and living in the glow of division rival New England, which Dolphins fan wouldn’t want that?

@WingfieldNFL

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5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Daniel

    May 21, 2019 at 11:35 am

    Good article Travis. You have done a stellar job in breaking down Rosen’s games and skills. Keep up the good work! Fins up!

  2. Avatar

    Richard

    May 21, 2019 at 12:41 pm

    Great work and very educational. Thanks!!

  3. Avatar

    David aka Bumrush

    May 21, 2019 at 1:08 pm

    Great stuff. You should forward this to someone on the Dolphins staff.

  4. Avatar

    Joe M.

    May 21, 2019 at 4:16 pm

    Maybe I’m in the minority, and although this is a solid article/well detailed, who really and honestly cares about what he did last year? And while being a member on the absolute worst team in the NFL?

    We’ve already dissected every step he took and every word spoken. The fact is, he’s given a great opportunity to latch onto a team that desperately has needed a franchise QB for years and years! And the overriding hope is, that they’ve been FORTUNATE enough to land one at an easy-to-afford/absorb salary. Now let him go get it and lets let go of the maybes and right/wrong or good play/decision or bad play/decision.

    Because why? I think we all get it! So, stop trying to convince us we got a good deal and YET we still need to worry because he did not have a favorable rookie season under fire, and on a team in flux moreso than MIA, and yes that includes and not limited to the AZ GM comment/non-call garb. Some stuff is simply fodder to make the media s***pot spin for a week or 2 or 3 or 20!

    And so I end with diatribe with this – if you read this or hear about it –> Good luck, Josh! Have a great season! Prove the doubters and perpetual haters/doubters wrong.

  5. Avatar

    Whatsupdolfans

    May 22, 2019 at 12:28 am

    Great article Travis. You put in a lot work. It would help if you include the touchdown at KC week 10 in your articles. It looks like the dolphins could have found the future QB with some good coaching up and play calling/scheming. I hope so. Go fins.

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Miami Dolphins

Buffalo Beats Miami Back to Reality – Dolphins Bills Week 11 Recap

Travis Wingfield

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Shorthanded Dolphins swept by rival Bills

Truthfully, this game was over when the inactives were announced. Miami’s 30th-ranked run defense were allowing 146.1 yards-per-game, at an average of 4.6 YPC entering Sunday’s action. Raekwon McMillan, Pro Football Focus’ 11th-highest graded run-defending linebacker, was on that inactive list. So was Taco Charlton, Miami’s leading snap-taker from a defensive edge that is incredibly thin even with Charlton in the lineup.

Buffalo promptly ripped off 169 rushing yards at an average of 5.1 yards per pop (removing Josh Allen’s kneel down to end the game, a one-yard loss).

 

Stat Dolphins Bills
Total Yards 303 424
Rushing 23 168
Passing 280 256
Penalties 6 (44 yards) 5 (50 yards)
3rd / 4thDown 5/18 (27.7%) 6/15 (40%)
Sacks For 0 7
TOP 29:51 30:09

DolphinsBills

Brian Flores’ message throughout Miami’s much-needed, brief winning-streak was about stringing together consistency, in the face of complacency. The message was received last week in a spirited road victory, but the Phins came up well short of a third-straight win over rival Buffalo, who now have three consecutive wins over Miami.

Next week, back on the road, we’ll see if Flores is capable of getting his squad back to the level of play that the team enjoyed the previous two weeks. Miami’s six fouls accepted were the most since the season opening beat down against Baltimore. That game, Miami were operating with a 20% roster turnover inside two weeks’ time. Sunday, the zebras picked up a handful of flags that otherwise would’ve been the Phins sloppiest performance since that opener.

Miami busted coverages, they tackled poorly and committed a lot of penalties — essentially, they failed to do all the things that kept them in games the last month.

The special team’s unit lifted the tide, and all of the pass catchers got involved, but the rest of the team was not at its best in something of a letdown showing. This was true, particularly on the offensive line, where the protection also reverted back to old ways. There isn’t a quarterback on the planet that would survive a weekly onslaught like the one Ryan Fitzpatrick saw Sunday.

The seven sacks allowed were a season-high for Miami, with a lot of that heat coming off the much-maligned left side. We’ll cover that in the individual segments, which we jump to now.

Quarterback

Ryan Fitzpatrick’s stat line is rather remarkable. Given the circumstances, a zero-turnover performance with better than 7.2 yards per attempt is difficult to believe. It would be disingenuous to blame all seven sacks on the offensive line, Fitz did run into one or two, but he didn’t have much of a choice.

The pocket was compromised all game, leaving Fitzpatrick to create space just to have a chance to get into his progressions. If Miami ever re-inserts Josh Rosen into the lineup, and this is the level in which the line plays at, the Phins won’t win another game this season — I’m not sure they would with Fitzpatrick at the controls either.

Running Backs

There’s a lot of Kalen Ballage vitriol circulating out there, and it’s well-warranted. Ballage’s comment that he had nothing to prove, while touting a paltry 2.0 yard-per-carry-mark rubbed fans the wrong way. His best run of the game was a seven-yard bowling ball off a wildcat formation in the red zone. That package eliminates Ballage’s requirement to anticipate, and get to the best available gap created by the line. Even with the seven-yard pop, Ballage finished with seven carries for seven yards, and his season YPC is now under 2.0.

Patrick Laird’s quick-twitch shows up in regular season games just as it did the preseason. Laird caught all six targets for 51 yards, and earned the right to a six-game audition down the stretch.

Chandler Cox’s best play of the season sprung Ballage’s TD run.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Devante Parker posted a career-high 135 receiving yards, and become the first Dolphin to surpass the century-mark this season. He’s looking fluid as ever, crisply getting out of his breaks and running after the catch at a level not yet seen in his professional career. Parker’s reason for accepting a cheap, prove-it deal with Miami was to “change his legacy with the Dolphins,” and he’s well on his way to accomplishing that goal.

Allen Hurns’ contract extension Saturday was met with some backlash from Dolphins fans, and those same fans will feel vindicated after Hurns’ showing Sunday. He dropped a pass that would’ve set Miami up in the red zone with a chance to cut the deficit to two at halftime, but it was ruled a fumble and a turnover. Then, out of the break, Hurns dropped another pass. Those two plays overshadowed his otherwise productive day. He has a real knack for finding soft spots in zones, a highly-regarded skillset in this scheme.

Mike Gesicki’s production has pretty much gone in-line with the performance of the offensive front this season. He caught four passes, but only picked up 18 yards off his six targets. If the line can’t protect, the Fitzpatrick never gets to his vertical threat tight end. Gesicki certainly received an earful for his failed block on a long Parker reception.

Jakeem Grant only caught three passes for 32 yards, but his 101-yard kickoff return showcased his world-class speed. It was nice to see Jakeem involved heavily for the first time this season, as he also scored on a handoff from Kalen Ballage in the wildcat offense.

Offensive Line

Julie’n Davenport probably isn’t known by the casual fan, but his season has been an all-timer. He’s only played in two games, but in those games he’s surrendered multiple sacks, provided teaching tape for what NOT to do, and left both contests with an injury.

Michael Deiter’s development has completely flat-lined at this stage. Every week, there’s a rep that would make the opposition’s highlight reel, as he is easily discarded in pass pro. He also falls off too many blocks in the run-game.

Evan Boehm was nicked up in this game, as he and Daniel Kilgore did very little to get surge in the running game. Things did not improve with Keaton Sutherland in the game, in-place of Boehm.

Defensive Line

Deception caught Miami a few times. Avery Moss was lauded by Flores for the work the end had done before missing the last four games, and there are reps where he looks like a real fit. Josh Allen completely had Moss taking the cheese on a zone read, however, as Moss followed the back inside, while Allen pulled it out for a 36-yard run.

Davon Godchaux does as well as anyone to hold double teams, and he’s the slipperiest interior player against the run. Each week, Godchaux will show out with a few reps like this one below:

Christian Wilkins looked to get rolled out quite a bit in this game, but I’d like to look at the all-22 before I get on him too much. My initial thought is that the linebackers really struggled to fit the run Sunday.

Linebackers

Jerome Baker was on the wrong end of a chewing-out from Flores, and the aforementioned run fits are the likely reason. Baker did make several plays in the game, but he was also caught in the wrong gap a number of times, and the Bills hit big runs as a result.

Sam Eguavoen is a recurring problem on Miami’s run defense. He is so easily displaced, caught up in the wash, and his inability to take on blocks really hurts the Phins stack, shed and rally mentality.

Vince Biegel continues to show up in a big way. He’s become a focal point for opposing offenses, and he’s still finding his way through double teams.

Defensive Backs

Sunday was the banner day for the anti-Bobby-McCain-at-safety brigade. McCain is doing a job that, quite frankly, nobody else on the roster is suited to fulfill, and he’s doing it with a shoulder that’s barely hanging on. McCain deserves flak for his late rotation on a long touchdown to John Brown, and his tackling was inexcusable throughout the game.

Nik Needham, partially to blame for not carrying John Brown downfield on that long touchdown, made a number of plays for the third straight game. Needham drew Brown early and often, and made a number of plays on the football. He got beat a couple of times, but Brown’s been doing that every corner he’s faced this season.

Eric Rowe and Reshad Jones as a safety tandem — especially in three safety looks with McCain as the third — is worse than the old Jones/T.J. McDonald combination. Jones looks a step slow off the rib injury, and Rowe’s best traits are somewhat masked by Jones’ presence on the field.

Recap

We talked all week about Miami’s ability to win games against poorly coached teams. Buffalo is not a poorly coached team, and they play really tough defense. Miami’s roster was as thin as its been all season, and with an overall sloppy performance, the Dolphins are lucky the score was this close.

It’ll be a nice challenge to the team to see how it responds from a reality check next week in Cleveland. The Browns defense is heating up, but will be without two of its best players in Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi.

For now, Miami’s draft picks had an outstanding day. Miami entered Sunday one of four teams with a pair of victories. Two of these teams, the Falcons and Jets, won Sunday, leaving Miami with a tiebreaker disadvantage behind the Giants, a win better than Washington, and still two wins clear of Cincinnati.

The news of Tua Tagovailoa’s career-threatening injury cuts two ways. Now, he’ll likely be available when the Dolphins are on the clock, whether that’s second, eighth, or anywhere in-between.

The quandary, how do you justify risking such a valuable resource on a guy that has so many medical concerns? The answer is easy. He’s special. He displayed his special abilities in that LSU game, where his mobility was drastically limited, and he still carved up one of the nation’s best defenses.

Joe Burrow almost certainly comes off the board as QB1 now, and if Tua really is Miami’s man, they just might get a crack at him after all.

@WingfieldNFL

Bonus – Jason Sanders one-man-band onside recovery

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NFL Draft

Scouting College Football’s Top 2020 Quarterback Prospects – Week 12

Travis Wingfield

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Recapping Week 12 of the College Football Season

During the college season, here on Locked On Dolphins, we’re going to keep an eye on quarterbacks all throughout the country. Our primary focus will be on the big four, the options that Miami will likely choose from with an early pick in the 2020 draft.

Those quarterbacks are:

Tua Tagovailoa Scouting Report
Jake Fromm Scouting Report
Justin Herbert Scouting Report
Jordan Love Scouting Report

2019 Week 1 Recap
2019 Week 2 Recap
2019 Week 3 Recap
2019 Week 4 Recap
2019 Week 5 Recap
2019 Week 6 Recap
2019 Week 7 Recap
2019 Week 8 Recap
2019 Week 9 Recap
– No Week 10 Recap
2019 Week 11 Recap

*LSU’s Joe Burrow has been added to the prospect watch list.

We’ll go in chronological order from when the games were played.

Week 12 Recap

Tua Tagovailoa vs. Mississippi State, Win
Stats: 14/18 (77.8%) 256 yards (14.22 YPA) 2 TD

Today was a collective “L” for the football community. One of the best collegiate players, and widely praised good guys, Tua Tagovailoa suffered a hip injury that leaves his football future in question.

What started out as an ordinary onslaught of explosive plays — a product of perfectly placed passes — ended in potential tragedy. Reports say that Tua’s hip is both dislocated, with a fracture of the wall that retains the ball joint. This injury calls for immediate surgery and significant recovery time, if a football career is possible at all.

Tagovailoa will do everything in his power for a full recovery, and hopefully the advances in modern medicine can allow him to make a triumphant return to the gridiron.

Jordan Love at Wyoming, Win 26-21
Stats: 18/29 (62.1%) 282 yards (9.72 YPA) 2 TD, 2 INT

This game was my favorite quarterback tape to watch this season. Jordan Love exhibited the sometimes unfathomably unique arm-talent that has endeared him to scouts nationally. After two interceptions — one a bad read, another bad luck — Love showed the shortstop-like arm, supreme athleticism, and general freaky traits that have scouts drooling.

The arm-strength to squeeze the football into a tight window from 40 yards away, the rare elasticity to sling it on a line across his body while on the move, the quick release to get the ball out in the face of pressure…it looks like he’s throwing a baseball.

The added element of a designed run package and RPO game, paired with the threat of throwing the ball to any blade of grass on the field, coaches will line up to get their hands on this prospect.

Jake Fromm vs. Missouri, Win 27-0
Stats: 13/28 (46.4%) 110 yards (3.93 YPA) 3 TD

Fromm hit his best throw of the season in another big SEC road victory. Few quarterbacks have the number of scalps that Fromm keeps in his back pocket, and he displayed tremendous poise in another hostile environment.

At times, the crowd noise was deafening, yet Fromm communicated his line checks and audibles with urgency and a steady heartbeat. He made cutch, accurate throws on third down, and beat the defense with his pre-snap prowess.

Fromm has quiet feet when he gets to the top of his drop. That’s not a trait he shares with a lot of the new-age, successful quarterbacks in the NFL. Kyler Murray went first in the draft for his ability to glide weightlessly about the pocket, creating passing lanes.

While Fromm is capable of mitigating some deficiencies with his ability to get the offense into the right play, and accurate passing, he’s not going to erase free rushers with his athleticism, and he’s not going to overcome situations with a fastball throw.

Joe Burrow at Ole Miss, Win 58-37
Stats: 32/42 (76.2%) 489 yards (11.64 YPA) 5 TD, 2 INT

And in one afternoon, Joe Burrow is left with nothing to prove. The now heavy favorite to come off the board with the first pick, the second half of Miami’s season would have to take some considerable turns to get the LSU Quarterback.

Burrow remains as cool as ever in this one. He rushed his Tiger offense out to a big lead with a couple of impressive improvisational plays. The big day was saddled by the two turnovers, but Burrow ends the day as the new QB1 due to Tua’s medical situation.

Justin Herbert vs. Arizona, 10:30 ESPN
Stats: 20/28 (71.4%) 333 yards (11.89 YPA) 4 TD, 1 INT

If this was your first viewing experience of Justin Herbert, you probably came away convinced he’s a top-10 draft pick — and he will be. If you’re a regular to his tape, this game was more of the same — flashes of brilliance when the circumstances permit, but the same inconsistencies in the most important aspects of the game.

Arizona’s defense hasn’t stopped a nose bleed this year, and they sure as hell weren’t going to stop the draft’s most physically impressive specimen behind the country’s best offensive line. Herbert’s long touchdown throws displayed the hand-cannon that has scouts conjuring up the prototypical quarterback build — particularly the toss in the second half.

On the rare occasions where Arizona got heat, you saw Herbert’s lack of quick-twitch to get off the spot, without the inherent ability to keep his eyes downfield to keep the play alive. You saw Herbert make an egregious decision to throw the ball into coverage (the INT was dropped) on a first-and-goal play from the two-yard-line.

The problem with Herbert, is that this has been the story for over 30 games. He still has no signature wins or moments, and the Oregon offense is still predicated on the running and screen game.

Herbert’s best bet at the next level is a run-heavy offense that can utilize his premiere weapon — throwing on the move. Lining up in 12-personnel (2 tight ends) and allowing Herbert to get out in space to throw into layers or flood concepts on the move will be the smoothest transition for the Oregon QB to have some success.

I’m of the belief that you have to put Herbert in an absolutely ideal situation, because he’s not going to mitigate your issues offensively.

Week 12 Conclusion

Reports from the University of Alabama doctor responsible for tending to Tagovailoa say the quarterback will make a full recovery, but he is certainly in for a long rehab process. If anyone can come back from this, it’s Tagovailoa, though his draft stock will surely be impacted. If Tua enters the draft and clears all the medical hurdles, he’ll still be a first-round pick.

Miami might be fortunate if Tagovailoa is still the target. With Brian Flores willing his team to underdog victories, the chances of obtaining the first pick was becoming grim, but so too are Tua’s chances at going off the board number one.

The Dolphins will have a difficult decision to make, though an apparent contingency plan is developing behind Tua.

Jordan Love is making progress the last two weeks in his overall effectiveness, and the highlights he produced today were utterly absurd. Though he has shortcomings in his approach for the game and playing the quarterback position, his physical tools give him — far and away — the highest upside in the class.

Miami’s interesting draft season took a jump to a whole other level of intrigue with the events of Saturday.

Week 13 Schedule

Fromm vs. Texas A&M, 3:30 CBS
Burrow vs. Arkansas, 7:00 ESPN
Love vs. Boise State, 10:30 CBSSN
Herbert at Arizona State TBD

@WingfieldNFL

Additional Prospect Videos

A.J. Epenesa – Iowa Defensive End 

Bravvion Roy – Baylor Defensive Tackle

Julian Blackmon – Utah Safety (former corner, invited to Mobile for the Sr. Bowl)

Ben Bredeson – Michigan Left Guard

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Miami Dolphins

Should the Miami Dolphins be interested in signing Colin Kaepernick?

Shawn Digity

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Miami Dolphins Colin Kaepernick
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports

Miami (Locked On Dolphins) – Should the Miami Dolphins be interested in signing Colin Kaepernick?

It was only a matter of time before someone posed the question, and maybe it’s already been asked. Does Colin Kaepernick make sense for the Miami Dolphins?

I think the answer could be yes but not in a vacuum. The circumstances would have to be aligned for it to work out.

As it stands, for 2019, I don’t think Kaepernick would be viewed as a starter to fuel any tank or non-tank talk, regardless of how good he looks in the jerry-built workout on Saturday.

Any potential for signing Kaepernick would come with a big asterisk. I think it would have more to do with the some of the draft-eligible quarterbacks that could be a Dolphin next year and the traits and abilities they possess than it does with Kaepernick and what he could do directly for the franchise.

It boils down to who the Miami Dolphins have on their quarterback short list in the 2020 Draft. A lot of this franchise’s future boils down to the quarterback. But I’ll save that lecture for another time.

I’m not sure who will be the quarterbacks on the roster next year. Josh Rosen is likely out, and I’m not sure about Ryan Fitzpatrick. Maybe he stays, maybe he goes.

Regardless, there will be a rookie quarterback on the team, maybe even two if the Dolphins double-dip like the Redskins did in 2012 with Robert Griffin III and Kirk Cousins. I’ll save that theory for another time, too.

But once the Dolphins have taken their guy next spring, I think they’ll look for an experienced veteran to fill in for a pedagogical role in the QB room.

One of them could still be Ryan Fitzpatrick, but it could be someone else, like Cam Newton…or Colin Kaepernick, but I’ll get to that in a second.

Newton would be a better fit for that role compared to Fitzpatrick, and he offers the ability to kill two birds with one stone. He can win games and bring up the rookie as he goes.

Travis Wingfield tossed around the idea of trading for Cam Newton on Tuesday’s LOD podcast. I liked the idea. Trade for Newton and draft someone like Jordan Love or Jalen Hurts, who are both much rawer than their Joe Burrow or Tua Tagovailoa counterparts.

Of course, that’s Plan B. If Tagovailoa is still within reach, then draft him. If Burrow’s there, take him. If either of those two situations plays out, then all of the contingency plans go out the window.

But getting either Tagovailoa or Burrow is not a guarantee. So, having a scope on the other potential first-rounders is essential. I still like Jordan Love and his traits, but I also like Jalen Hurts, and I’m coming around on Justin Herbert. All three would benefit from redshirt seasons when entering the NFL.

And having the appropriate veteran guidance will be a huge blessing for the rookie’s development.

While I hope Plan A still comes to fruition, I also like the first backup plan. Here’s a caveat to Plan B, though. Trading for Newton is also not a guarantee.

There are several factors out of the Dolphins control, and that’s assuming that they are, in fact, interested in trading for Newton. If they are interested, then it becomes paramount that they can trade for him. At least they have their 2020 war chest of draft picks.

Now, back to my Kaepernick spiel. If Newton becomes a distant memory and Plan B crumbles, then Kaepernick jumps into the picture.

Kaepernick offers flexibility if the Dolphins do want Newton but can’t land him or if they’re going to save their picks outright.

If Newton is Plan B, then I’m viewing the signing of Kaepernick as a next-best Plan C. Newton and Kaepernick could both fit into the mold of teacher, but both also offer more upside than Ryan Fitzpatrick when it comes to winning games. It’s a way of having your cake and eating it too.

You wouldn’t have to trade for Kaepernick, and I doubt you’d have to fend off many other teams to sign him, either.

Allow an incubation period for the rookie quarterback while Newton or Kaepernick takes the reins for a season or two. Similar to how Patrick Mahomes held clipboards for most of his rookie season, grooming a rookie quarterback under the wings of a veteran could provide more sustainable growth for the rookie.

It’ll set up the rook to eventually blossom in a few years instead of being thrown to the wolves and also allow the Dolphins to find relevancy in short-term eras from one of the two mentioned veterans (Newton and Kaepernick).

So, would signing Kaepernick make sense? Yes, but only under certain conditions. I could see it become more likely that Kaepernick never joins the team, but there are scenarios, albeit limited ones, that could see him in orange and aqua.

But he could become a leader for the team and a teacher for the next-gen quarterback waiting in the wings.

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