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Using Snap Counts to Decipher the Miami Dolphins Biggest Needs

Travis Wingfield

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In an era of sub-package football, which positions are in most dire need for the Dolphins?

Professional football has undergone a transformation over the last decade; long gone are the days of the depth charts defined by starters and backups. Stepping into the forefront, in lieu of that antiquated model, are role-specific rosters constructed with an eye on matchups and frequent player rotation.

Even double-digit years into the making, this is still something of a lost concept on the casual fan. Ricky Williams touching the football 872 times over a two-year span is as ancient as the Dolphins actually featuring a premier offensive skill player.

June 4, 2018; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers inside linebackers coach Patrick Graham during organized team activities. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel via USA TODAY NETWORK

Every position, outside of quarterback, offensive line, defensive back and one — maybe two — linebackers, will feature a bevy of players responsible for a variety of jobs. Sub-packages, special teams, particular matchups; the bottom tier of the 53-man roster has never been more important in football.

All offseason, we’ve been relying on the Patriots model to best forecast what this new Dolphins product will look like – after all, four of the 14 (29%) position coaches are Foxboro defects. Even with a pinch of variety from former Packers Linebackers Coach, and new Dolphins Defensive Coordinator Patrick Graham, the “Belichickian” influence is inevitable.

Chad O’Shea made due with minimal resources in his Wide Receivers’ Room during his Patriots tenure. New Assistant Quarterback’s Coach, Jerry Schuplinski, worked with Tom Brady and aided in the development of the young quarterbacks, behind Brady, on New England’s roster.

Fluid defensive fronts cascading from a base 4-2-5 alignment, and some variation of the Earhardt & Perkins scheme, are safe bets to make-up Miami’s new defensive and offensive systems.

We start on offense.

Quarterback:

Player 2018 Patriots Offensive Snaps %
Tom Brady 98%
Brian Hoyer 2%

 

Hoyer played during mop-up duty in 2018 – this position requires no explanation. It does, however, harken back to a discussion about the value of drafting quarterbacks in the middle rounds. With the success rate of first-round QBs under a coin flip, and plummeting each round thereafter, the best case scenario for signal callers drafted on Friday or Saturday is typically a viable backup. In that same ideal scenario, the backup will never see the field.

Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garappolo, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins, Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor – those are the non-first-round quarterbacks to start multiple opening days (factoring in 2019 opening day) from the last decade. This group makes up less than 10% of the QBs drafted outside of the first round.

Miami currently has Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jake Ruddock, and Luke Falk in-house. Frankly, the solution to either starter or backup is not presently on Miami’s roster.

Running Back:

Player 2018 Patriots Offensive Snaps %
James White 54%
Sony Michel 29%
Rex Burkhead 13%
Kenjon Barner 4%
Jeremy Hill 1%
James Develin (FB) 36%

 

There isn’t a backfield in football the utilizes a more diverse set of skills, across a multitude of backs, than the way New England did (and does). White is among the best third-down backs in the league, Michel was a promising (though banged up) rookie, Burkhead offers a spell, and Develin is a wrecking ball of an up-back.

Kenyan Drake is capable of playing the James White role.

Kalen Ballage could easily step into the Sony Michel role.

But then what? The Dolphins, assuming they’ll use two-back sets with at least a modicum of frequency, need a Develin type, along with a third back capable of playing in all three phases (runner, receiver, and pass protector) in the mold of Rex Burkhead.

Wide Receiver:

Player 2018 Patriots Offensive Snaps %
Chris Hogan 72%
Julian Edelman 67%
Josh Gordon 50%
Phillip Dorsett 36%
Cordarrelle Patterson 21%

 

These numbers are skewed rather substantially by injury and suspension. Edelman missed four games for using illegal PEDs while Gordon was an in-season add who failed to finish the year on the active roster. Ideally, New England would’ve operated with those three receivers (Hogan the add-on) as their primary players out wide.

Patterson was a gimmick option (screens, reverses, ball carrier, etc.) while Matthew Slater and Riley McCarron both failed to top 20 reps.

The Dolphins have this position pretty well-covered at press time. Kenny Stills has been an 80-plus % player the last three seasons while Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant are itching for expanded roles. Factor in Devante Parker and Brice Butler, and one can glean that Miami will probably sit out on the WR market until late on day-three, if not entirely.

Tight End:

Player 2018 Patriots Offensive Snaps %
Rob Gronkowski 75%
Dwayne Allen 33%
Jacob Hollister 5%

 

This group is also skewed by the presence of an all-time great in Gronkowski. New England’s 2012 tight end deployment will likely more accurately reflect what the Dolphins will do in 2019. Gronk and Aaron Hernandez played 60% and 45% of the snaps, while two more tight ends factored in at clips of ~25%.

Mike Gesicki is going to get every opportunity to fill that 60% role while Allen, now a Dolphin, can seamlessly transition into a similar role (likely increased by 10-20% from the 33% last year).

From there, Durham Smythe, Nick O’Leary, and Clive Walford figure to compete for work in heavy personnel (13 and 12-goaline packages).

Offensive Line:

Player 2018 Patriots Offensive Snaps %
OT Trent Brown 97%
OT Marcus Cannon 75%
OG Joe Thuney 100%
OG Shaq Mason 85%
OC David Andrews 99%
Ted Karras 15%

 

Three more linemen played less than 1% of the offensive snaps. The takeaway from this list is New England’s impeccable health on the offensive line. Miami has not been as fortuitous in recent years, and with only Laremy Tunsil locked into a starting job, plenty of work remains to be done by Chris Grier and his scouting staff on the O-line.

Chris Reed, Daniel Kilgore, and Jesse Davis are currently in-line to start, but there remains AT LEAST one glaring hole at left guard (presuming Reed wins the RG job).

Now for the defense. This side of the football is far more dependent on rotation. Between conditioning and relaying sub-packages in-and-out of the game, substitutions are far more prevalent for the stop unit than the attack group.

Defensive End:

Player 2018 Patriots Defensive Snaps %
Trey Flowers 70%
Deatrich Wise 41%
Adrian Clayborn 30%
John Simon 18%
Keionta Davis 18%
Derek Rivers 7%
Geneo Grissom 2%

 

This position, along with interior defensive line, was the crux of this entire project. Only one player even sniffed half of the defensive snaps; showcasing where the catalyst of this defensive scheme resides – in the secondary.

Presently, Miami doesn’t have its Trey Flowers – that’s a big area of need unless the Dolphins believe Charles Harris, Tank Carradine, or Johnathan Woodard can fulfill that outside/inside position. That trio (Harris, Carradine, Woodard) likely figure into the Wise and Clayborn roles as rotational presences.

Defensive Tackle:

Player 2018 Patriots Defensive Snaps %
Lawrence Guy 50%
Malcolm Brown 43%
Adam Butler 36%
Danny Shelton 31%

 

The defensive tackle position is more about quantity than quality in this defense. With the exception of Guy, these are hefty players that work between the 0, 1, and 2-techiniques on the inside of the defense. Two-gapping tackles that thrive at stacking bodies and holding ground, this isn’t a position that requires a high resource from Miami.

Davon Godchaux and Vincent Taylor are an excellent start to rounding out the four-man rotation. With the current makeup of the Dolphins D-line, both Godchaux and Taylor could surpass Guy’s 50% play-time, while the rest of the snaps are won via competition from lesser known players on the roster (Jamiyus Pittman, Joey Mbu, Kendrick Norton).

Linebacker:

Player 2018 Patriots Defensive Snaps %
Kyle Van Noy 91%
Dont’a Hightower 74%
Elandon Roberts 41%
Ja’Whaun Bentley 13%

 

Five more linebackers took snaps in 2018, none higher than 3% of the total defensive snaps.

Ja’Whaun Bentley was off to a terrific start in his rookie season before an injury cut the campaign short. John Simon (listed among defensive ends) played a little bit of linebacker, but the overarching theme tells us this:

Two linebackers are going to play a lot of snaps in this defense, with the third ‘backer operating as a sub-package substitute.

Those two ‘backers will be Raekwon McMillan and Jerome Baker. Miami still has some work to do at the position, though Kiko Alonso likely serves as the #3 while the search for his replacement bleeds into 2020.

Cornerback:

Player 2018 Patriots Defensive Snaps %
Stephone Gilmore 97%
Jason McCourty 80%
Jonathan Jones 49%
J.C. Jackson 38%
Eric Rowe 13%

 

Keion Crossen and Cyrus Jones both played corner in 2018 as well, neither more than 4% of the total snaps.

Jones, Jackson and Rowe worked inside as the primary slots. Rowe was injured after three games, and has made the migration south to Miami. Ideally, Rowe will serve in the same role as Jason McCourty while Miami’s presumed best player, Xavien Howard, takes on the Gilmore role.

Behind those two, and Bobby McCain as the primary slot corner, Miami has a glut of corners hungry for, and capable, of playing time. Between Jalen Davis, Cornell Armstrong, Cordrea Tankersley, and Torry McTyer, the Dolphins SHOULD uncover one diamond in the rough.

Safety:

Player 2018 Patriots Defensive Snaps %
Devin McCourty 96%
Patrick Chung 85%
Duron Harmon 61%

 

Nate Ebner and Obi Melifonwu played safety, neither higher than 2% of New England’s total defensive workload.

Safeties drive this defense. With plenty of time spent in the box, and coming down to matchup man-on-man, versatility is the key. Consider that all three of the New England safeties played more than any Patriot Defensive Lineman (sans Trey Flowers) and it’s easy to add two-and-two together.

Minkah Fitzpatrick is Devin McCourty in this defense – that one is easy. It’s finding Patrick Chung (Reshad Jones in the interim, but he’s likely moved sooner than later) while T.J. McDonald doesn’t fill any of these roles.

Miami has a definitive need at safety in a year where the picking is ripe – specifically a deep center field safety.

Earlier this week we wrote about the top storylines facing Miami in this draft. Number three was the use of the day-two picks on the positions of biggest need (outside of QB) at offensive line, defensive line, and at safety.

With perhaps the most loaded DL class in a decade, it’s safe to assume a good player will be available in the third round. The same can’t be said for offensive line, and probably not safety – though both groups are deeper than most years.

We know the quarterback position isn’t exactly fixable in 2019, outside of a blockbuster trade. Luckily, for Miami, this draft offers an opportunity to make a significant dent in the next three positions of greatest need.

In a league predicated on substitutions and role players, Miami could, conceivably, nail down a pair of 100% snap-takers with the first two picks in this year’s draft.

@WingfieldNFL

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Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins Week 9 Monday Morning Thoughts

Jason Hrina

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Image Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Tua Tagovailoa has IT.

Brian Flores is THE guy.

And I have to admit, Chris Grier has done a phenomenal job.

After an exciting 34-31 victory over the Arizona Cardinals (5-3), the Miami Dolphins (5-3) solidified themselves as a legitimate playoff team in the AFC. Sure, you can say we’re getting a bit cocky – we’ve watched our team falter plenty of times before. But do you get the sense that these are the same Dolphins we’ve been watching this century?

Right now, are you skeptical or optimistic?

Do you have butterflies because you’re nervous or because you’re excited?

Do you think the Dolphins are trying to survive each game or do you have confidence that they’ll win?

Coming off of 4-straight victories, it’s easy to feel like we’re on top of the world, but this team looks different. It feels different. They act different.

Below are a few thoughts following Miami’s promising 34-31 victory over the Arizona Cardinals.

Monday Morning Thoughts

Tua Tagovailoa is the franchise quarterback we’ve been waiting for

Admit it, when they originally ruled that throwaway an interception, you saw shades of every failed quarterback to come since Dan Marino.

That play was so comically bad that it easily could have defined Tua’s career if it didn’t pan out. Thankfully, it was ruled that the receiver’s foot was out-of-bounds and it was an incomplete pass – but imagine the memes that would have been unleashed if Miami lost this game and that play counted.

But, it didn’t count….and the Dolphins didn’t lose….and Tua Tagovailoa out-dueled Kyler Murray when it mattered most.

When the Dolphins needed a game-winning drive, Tua delivered. When Kyler Murray had an opportunity to tie it, he didn’t (along with an obscure Zane Gonzalez kick).

Tua’s elite pocket presence, accuracy, decision-making, and ball placement were all on display. And none of that accounts for the plays he made with his legs.

If you’re a Dolphins fan, you’re thrilled with what you saw. And though it’s only a small sample size, I think we can all exhale – he looks like he’s the guy.

Byron Jones is still a damn good Cornerback

After three-straight dominant performances, Byron Jones was a bit humbled this game. We’re so used to watching him shut down opposing receivers that a game like this really sticks out.

He was absolutely burned by Christian Kirk on a beautiful deep ball from Kyler Murray late in the first quarter, but that wasn’t his worse play.

Dolphins fans and Byron Jones both thought he hauled in his first interception since October, 2017. Instead, Darrell Daniels’ first career touchdown reception is one of the highlights of the year as he snatches the ball right out of Jones’ hands.

I mean, Byron Jones had that ball in his hands for an interception, and before they hit the ground Darrell Daniels steals it into his possession. AND somehow had his knee down so it would count as a catch. Crazy.

Miami’s (really, it’s Brian Flores’) now infamous “zero” boom-or-bust scheme is susceptible to the long-ball, as our corners are expected to cover their receivers 1-on-1; with no safety help behind them. So far this season, it has worked tremendously to their advantage (as seen below)

But, if your coverage isn’t on par, this will happen:

With all of that said, Byron Jones is still a great cornerback in this league. Was this a bad game? Definitely. But I don’t expect this to become a trend. Lets not take for granted the elite secondary we currently have.

Christian Wilkins should NOT stop celebrating

Just please celebrate responsibly.

One of the reasons Dolphins fans adore Christian Wilkins is because of his infectious personality. He’s notoriously running in and celebrating every offensive touchdown with his team. His trash talking is innocently intimidating. The way he pumps his team up is perfect for any locker room culture. On top of the fact that he’s a pretty good defensive tackle.

Which is why I want him to keep celebrating – and I want him to continue celebrating excessively.

Preston Williams‘ unfortunate injury during a touchdown celebration is a huge reason why professional coaches like to contain their million-dollar players. Not just on the field, but off the field as well. It makes sense, they’re valuable commodities, but Wilkins’ spirit is too valuable to douse.

If something like this happens again, then we can talk about stifling his excitement, until then….celebrate smarter.

Xavien Howard’s “penalties” tell half the story

Xavien Howard was tasked with shadowing DeAndre Hopkins, and he ended up accounting for more penalty yards (43) than receiving yards against him (30).

The real testament to Howard’s coverage throughout the game? DeAndre Hopkins, one of the best wide receivers in the league, didn’t see a single target in the first half of the game.

A couple (terrible) penalties shouldn’t overshadow the fact that Xavien Howard and Byron Jones may be the best cornerback tandem in the league.

The Miami Dolphins need a Running Back in the worst way

Jordan Howard‘s 8-yard run on the last drive of the game – which helped seal the victory – was his biggest play as a Miami Dolphin. Up to that point, I was kind of rooting for Howard to continue his 1 YPC average. If you take away that 8-yard run (EASILY his longest of the year), Howard has gained 25 rushing yards on 27 rushing attempts (0.93 YPC).

Rookie Salvon Ahmed had a solid game, with 7 carries for 38 yards (5.4 YPC). I’m not sure how reliable he is, but he can’t be worse than Howard. If Matt Breida is available for next week’s game against the Los Angeles Chargers, I’m sure Howard will once again be inactive, giving Ahmed another shot to prove himself.

We probably should have given Austin Jackson the week off

Austin Jackson returned to the lineup for the first time in 4 weeks (due to a foot injury) and was “ok”. He was beat on a few plays, but it’s evident he wasn’t 100%. I wouldn’t make any presumptions based off of this game; if anything, the reps help from an experience/mental perspective.

Jason Sanders is a stud

Jason Sanders connecting on 56 and 50-yard field goals are that much more impressive when you take into account that weird Zane Gonzalez miss (where he was short from 49 yards).

The conspiracy floating around is that the ball died (on Gonzalez’s kick) because the roof was open. Yet, Sanders made his 50+ yard field goals with room to spare.

Today’s the day we will never take Jason Sanders for granted as he surpassed Olindo Mare‘s franchise record of 19-straight field goals made.

The Miami Dolphins are going to “have to” extend Emmanuel Ogbah

I think we all would love to see a contract extension, but it’s bordering on a “necessity” at this point. Not just because we want to lock up a top-notch defensive end, but because he’s going to (rightfully) demand more financial security.

Though it always felt like he was on a one-year deal, this is technically the first year of a 2-year, $15m contract for Emmanuel Ogbah, but there’s no guaranteed money tied to 2021 – and there’s no way he’s playing like a $7.5m defensive end.

Jordan Phillips averages $10m a year with his recent contract, and I think it’s fair to say that Ogbah is worth more than that. Expect a holdout if the Dolphins don’t give him a raise and an extension this offseason. That’s not to say we should be concerned – I think Miami will look to make this extension a priority – but if they don’t see eye-to-eye expect a holdout to occur.

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Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins – A Tale of Two Franchises

Jason Hrina

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Image Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Football is a team sport.

Wins don’t individually define a quarterback’s success.

Yet everyone agrees that the only way to win in the NFL is to have a quarterback that is better than (just about) every other franchise in the sport.

Once you have an upper-echelon quarterback, then you can talk about the nuances of creating a team. Whether it’s surrounding that quarterback with the proper talent, ensuring you’ve built the right scheme around them, or complimenting them with a staunch defense to complete a championship run, developing an entire roster means nothing if you don’t have a quarterback that can lead you to the playoffs.

38 years ago, the Miami Dolphins selected a quarterback that would revolutionize the NFL.

A man decades before his time, the immediate success Dan Marino brought us – after 13 championship-caliber years with Bob Griese – shielded us from the horrors of football purgatory. Maybe it’s this curse of #13 that has us clamoring for football relevance after almost 50 years without a Super Bowl Championship.

We watched our franchise devolve from the model of perfection to a team without an identity; floundering desperately to find a viable quarterback for two decades.

And with one swift decision, the Dolphins simultaneously expunged their football idiocy of years past and exhibited the type of football prowess that should lead them to salvation.

Image Credit: South Florida Sun Sentinel

As we’re destroying the team for wasting 2nd & 5th-round picks on Josh Rosen, we’re praising them for building the foundation for future success. Gone are these false prophets of yesteryear, as the real prodigy we’ve all been yearning for is one step closer to leading the helm.

Once Tua Tagovailoa was selected 5th-overall in the 2020 NFL draft, Rosen’s exile was cemented. He was never going to have an opportunity to make it here, it was always going to be Tua Tagovailoa backing up Ryan Fitzpatrick. The grizzly, 13-year veteran handles the nuances of a young football team while the young, energetic and extremely talented rookie spends valuable time learning and developing.

That move…that single transaction…will forever symbolize the moment the Miami Dolphins transitioned from football purgatory to football relevance.

The Purgatory We Built

No one remembers the cost of a successful trade.

Off the top of your head, what did the New York Giants trade to swap Philip Rivers for Eli Manning? How much did Carson Wentz cost the Philadelphia Eagles when they traded up for him? I bet you all remember the litany of picks the Washington Football Team paid for Robert Griffin III, or how badly the Chicago Bears missed on Mitch Trubisky when they gave up a bunch of picks to move up from #3 to #2.

It’s because mistakes are always magnified for franchises that fail. As a fan base, we’ve been groomed to remember all the negative aspects of our favorite football team, because that’s all we’ve known for the better half of our adult lives.

After trudging through this wasteland for so long, we are finally ready to move past all of the detrimental mistakes that have cost us 20+ years of our lives – including the Josh Rosen trade.

Sure, you have your classics like failing to draft (and then sign) Drew Brees, drafting Ronnie Brown over Aaron Rodgers with the 2nd-overall pick, drafting Jake Long over Matt Ryan with the 1st-overall pick, and trading a 2nd-round pick for A.J. Feeley.

It’s not that the Dolphins haven’t tried, it’s just that they have failed almost mightily when doing so.

I respect that Miami was aggressive in their pursuit of Josh Rosen – or for any of the other quarterbacks they’ve attempted to put under center – but their aggression was either misguided, ill-informed, or even desperate at best.

A year prior to Rosen’s draft-day trade, another draft-day trade was occurring – one that would transcend the Baltimore Ravens organization for the prolonged future. With the 32nd pick in the draft, the Ravens selected Lamar Jackson – a quarterback some Dolphins fans wanted with the team’s 11th-overall pick.

To move back into the first round and secure a quarterback with the 5th-year option, all Baltimore had to give up was an additional 2nd-round pick (see the full trade at the end of the article).

With their draft-day trade, the Baltimore Ravens landed an MVP.
With their draft-day trade, the Miami Dolphins landed a quarterback that was released for nothing.

Again, I don’t fault the Dolphins for being aggressive, but their pursuit was often awry.

The frustrating part of all of this may be that this team actually “spent” both in assets and money, they just didn’t seem to take that extra step at the right time.

Spending 2nd-round picks was fine 3 years in a row (with Chad Henne, John Beck and Pat White), but spending 2nd-round picks then became “too much” when they could have moved up in the 2017 draft to select Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson – instead, they stayed put at #22 and drafted Charles Harris.

Think about it, Miami’s best quarterbacks since Dan Marino were:

  • Castaway by the New York Jets (and subsequently got his shoulder destroyed like everyone predicted)
  • (Allegedly) Forced upon us by Stephen Ross because he knew what a new quarterback would inject into a flat-lining brand (ie: making $$)

Between Chad Pennington and Ryan Tannehill there is 1 playoff appearance and 0 playoff wins.

There are definitive reasons why the Dolphins are executing a rebuild in 2019-2020 – after attempting to rebuild numerous times already this century – and you can say that lots of it has to do with the Head Coaches that have been in place.

Watching Ryan Tannehill lead the Tennessee Titans to the AFC Championship came was the most-conflicted I’ve felt in a long time as a Dolphins fan. I was thrilled he was able to prove himself, but frustrated that my team was once again watching from the couch.

Heck, for all the praise we give Brian Flores, he couldn’t get Minkah Fitzpatrick to buy into his system – ultimately losing a near-Defensive MVP player to an organization that has been breathing success since the Dolphins’ perfect 1972 season.

Miami hasn’t lacked talent – it’s why they’re constantly hovering around 8-8. The problem is, they lack the most important piece on the football field combined with the right leader to mold them. Which explains why they constantly sit around 8-8.

The Future We Created

But thoughts of perpetual 8-8 seasons are a thing of the past. The Dolphins may have drafted their future franchise quarterback back in April, but they officially rolled out their #1 prize just a few days ago. Coincidentally, just 3 days after Rosen was released.

The timing is likely coincidental, but who says omens have to be a bad thing?

This Dolphins team is young (thanks to Chris Grier), determined (courtesy of Brian Flores’ mindset), talented (after accumulating so many draft picks) and they’re wise beyond their years.

With a bounty of draft picks at their disposal once again in 2021, and with a franchise quarterback seemingly set to take over by season’s end, the future for the Miami Dolphins looks EXTREMELY bright.

After most “experts” predicted the Dolphins would go nearly winless – some even calling for criminal investigations to be conducted – Flores showed off his leadership and led Miami to a 5-11 record.

If the worst roster in the NFL can win 5 games, what can an improved roster accomplish?

Last year, there were too many holes on the roster to count. Now, you’re desperate to find a missing piece. In 12 months, we’ve gone from cringe-worthy to dynasty-bound in some expert’s eyes.

So have the Dolphins finally returned to football relevance?

If this team really identified the right Head Coach, and if Tua’s hip can stay healthy, then there’s no reason why the Miami Dolphins aren’t about to embark on a successful crusade that takes the rest of the NFL by storm.

Earlier this year, we lost one of the greatest leaders to ever bless our organization. In honor of the all-time wins leader, the Miami Dolphins will wear a patch signifying Don Shula’s record-setting 347 career wins.

And who knows, maybe this renaissance is Shula’s last gift to an organization – and a community – that he spent his life already giving so much to. The symbolism would be all-too coincidental otherwise.

The Baltimore Ravens/Lamar Jackson Trade:

Yes, I understand every other team passed on Jackson. I also understand the Ravens passed on him once when they selected Hayden Hurst with the 25th-overall pick that year, but Baltimore has built a championship-caliber organization over the past two decades, while the Dolphins have accomplished one playoff win – I think they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt here.

The Lamar Jackson trade can be broken down like this:

  • Baltimore traded pick 52 (2nd-round) to move up to 32nd-overall (1st)
  • Baltimore also sent Philadelphia pick 125 in the deal, but they received pick 132 in return – a downgrade of 7 spots in the 4th-round.
  • Otherwise, all Baltimore spent was a 2nd-round pick in 2019 (which ended up being pick #53).

Full trade:

Eagles Receive Picks: 52 (2nd), 125 (4th) and pick 53 (2nd) in the 2019 draft
Ravens Receive Picks: 32 (1st) and 132 (4th)

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Miami Dolphins

There’s A Fine Line Between Being A Genius & Being Dumb in the NFL

Jason Hrina

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Image Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Think Brian Flores & Chris Grier aren’t smart?

After successfully navigating through all of the pre-draft smokescreens better than teenagers can survive the high school rumor mill, the Miami Dolphins are in a position to flourish for the next decade.

Yes, it’s something we’ve said before almost annually, but this time, there’s a clear foundation that will allow the roots of this franchise to prosper.

We’ve Heard This Before

Tony Sparano blossomed under the Bill Parcells‘ coaching tree in Dallas, bringing with him an aura of prominence and a pedigree for smash mouth football.

After a miraculous 10-game turnaround that took Miami from #1 overall in the draft to division winners, fans felt they had the proper leadership in place.

That was soon debunked when the Dolphins followed an 11-5 (2008) season with 7-9 (2009), 7-9 (2010) and 6-10 (2011). It’s not that any of us feel that Sparano was a bad coach, but it was more-than-evident that he was handicapped at the quarterback position.

The Dolphins go 11-5 in 2008 because their quarterback was the runner-up in the MVP race, and they falter to 7-9 after that because they decided to build around Chad Henne.

Good coach, but poor coaching decisions.

From there, the Dolphins hired one of the best human beings on the planet – Joe Philbin. The notorious problem with Philbin was: he couldn’t lead a football team.

Failing to rein in Vontae Davis‘ hangovers, everything regarding Richie Incognito, the Chad Ochocinco saga (check out this damning ESPN article from 2012, which gives you a glimpse into how the player’s felt about Philbin early on), and all of the Mike Wallace drama. Those football teams had some decent talent, yet were never better than a mediocre 8-8 in Philbin’s 4 years.

Great person, but terrible with people.

Adam Gase then took a 1-4 season and made the playoffs at 10-6. All the optimism surrounding Ryan Tannehill seemed justified, and we were ecstatic for the future. But we came to learn that Gase’s coaching talents resembled more of a glorified offensive coordinator, which left players feelings ostracized and without a sense of direction – especially those on defense.

Like Philbin, Gase wanted a group of players that followed him, rather than developing a strategy that tailored to his players’ strengths. He traded away (or failed to re-sign) productive players drafted by Grier in years past, just because he couldn’t handle them.

After a 10-6 start to his coaching career (2016), we watched our hopes dwindle to 6-10 (2017) – accompanied with $10m worth of embarrassing Jay Cutler highlights – and then 7-9 (2018) after the “quarterback guru” couldn’t get any production out of a 2019 Pro Bowl & AFC Championship quarterback in Ryan Tannehill.

Offensive visionary, but he couldn’t see past his own shortcomings.

So Why is This Different?

This would be the definition of insanity….if it meant that we were following the same trend.

Yes, we understand the eternal caveat that we won’t know for sure until we see the results, but after a successful 2019 – and a stellar 2020 draft that features plenty of starting potential – we’re not going too far out on a limb to say that they have our trust.

Going into a vital 2020 NFL draft where the team held 3 first-round picks, the Miami Dolphins’ future rested solely on the leis of Tua Tagovailoa. For months we were on edge, because, as Dolphins fans, we just figured they would screw it up. But once they secured their quarterback of the future, the plan was simple: protect him.

Not only was the plan to build a wall in front of him, but Grier and Flores identified that some of these positions take more time to develop than others. Rarely do offensive and defensive linemen jump right in and become dominant players. The difference between pancaking teenagers in college to moving a mountain-of-a-man in the NFL is colossal.

Rookies go through such a strenuous process to improve their draft stock – immediately after completing a full college season – that they are burned out by the time their rookie year is over. That’s exactly what happened to Michael Deiter towards the end of last season; it’s no surprise we see their performance start to slide after putting in so much work throughout the year.

Drafting Austin Jackson (18th-overall pick), Robert Hunt (39th), and Solomon Kindley (111th) means Miami is giving their rookies time to grow before being asked to protect their most-important asset since Dan Marino.

Instead of a trying to learn the nuances of the NFL with a rookie quarterback, they can learn how an offensive play is properly setup, executed and audibled under a veteran, Ryan Fitzpatrick.

When it comes time to protect Tua Tagovailoa in 2021, they won’t have to worry if they understood the protection, if they’ll make a rookie mistake, or if they’ll naively and unintentionally do something embarrassing or costly. They’ll be able to focus on executing the play properly, giving Tua an ample amount of time to handle his own “rookie” adjustments.

With Raekwon Davis, the Dolphins acquire another player at a position that tends to need some time to grow. This move makes me wonder what the future holds for Davon Godchaux, who is expected to receive a very nice payday in free agency after this season, but for now, Miami can rely heavily on Godchaux and their 2019 1st-round pick, Christian Wilkins. Davis has the opportunity to learn under these two as he prepares to take on a much bigger role in 2021.

With their final 1st-round pick, Miami selected another young player at a cornerstone position. The adjustments rookie cornerbacks need to make when guarding an NFL receiver are somewhat substantial, and Noah Igbinoghene will be able to learn and make these adjustments while covering the opponent’s third or forth receiver – with the added security that he has an array of established and Pro Bowl veterans behind him.

This might hint at an ugly and somewhat inconsistent 2020 season, as roughly half of this roster is new to the team, but all of these young players will start to excel as Tua begins to transition into our full-time starting quarterback.

Which means the Miami Dolphins are ready to make a legitimate playoff run in 2021.

Is it possible all of these risks falter? Of course! Austin Jackson just turned 21 years old, and he wasn’t viewed as the best left tackle in college last season – he is a projection. Noah Igbinoghene wasn’t viewed as a 1st-round caliber cornerback, as most “experts” think he’s restricted to covering the slot rather than becoming a boundary corner. And then you have the general, inevitable fact that some of these picks just won’t pan out.

But we watched players like Mike Gesicki, DeVante Parker, Raekwon McMillan, Vince Biegel and Nik Needham take the “next step” under Brian Flores stewardship. It only makes us wonder who he’ll coach up next.

Now that Flores is more-comfortable as a sophomore coach, and the team understands his “win no matter what” philosophy, Miami should naturally thrive in year two….right?

Like all of these other coaches before him, Flores is an absolute genius after year one. And like all those coaches before him, he’s one season away from looking like a dunce.

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