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Why Ryan Tannehill Will Be Miami’s Starting Quarterback in 2019

Jason Hrina

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Image Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Buckle up, Dolphins fans. There is no TL;DR version of this. If you want to be invested in who the starting quarterback should be for the Miami Dolphins next season, take into account every bit of information that goes along with it. And I’m telling you upfront, there’s a lot.

This piece is not for someone who is sensitive or emotionally-charged about their 5-5 football team. Suspend your current desire to blow up the organization and start from scratch, and take a look at what questions and evidence lie before you.

Miami has been at a crossroads since it fired the greatest head coach and quarterback in the history of the NFL; almost as if it’s payment for irrationally and emotionally moving on from our franchise’s all-time greats. And, going into 2019, the Dolphins remain at the same crossroads they were at 20 years ago.

How exactly do they alleviate themselves from mediocrity?

The calls for a new head coach are slowly rumbling, but they aren’t as loud as the outcries for a new quarterback. While the team has been teased with Matt Moore, Jay Cutler and now Brock Osweiler (all previously starting quarterbacks for their former teams), it has never been able to dismantle Ryan Tannehill from the starting spot. Even David Garrard couldn’t stay healthy enough in his own backyard to unseat a rookie quarterback on the gridiron fresh off the 8th-overall selection in the 2012 NFL draft.

So while (futile) attempts have been made, the team has never successfully replaced the embattled quarterback. Which has led to such a porous cry for change, and for Miami to do “whatever it takes” to land their next beacon of hope.

Careful, Dolphins fans, as the last time the team did whatever it took, they signed Mike Wallace and Ndamukong Suh. And to an extent, Ryan Tannehill was a forced selection by Stephen Ross; a billion-dollar business man who understands that quarterbacks = cash for his entertainment business.

But let’s be rational, not emotional.

Yes, there is no doubt this team needs to guide itself off its current course and towards a new horizon. It has been:

  • 45 years without a championship
  • 34 years without a Super Bowl appearance
  • 17 (most likely 18) years without a playoff victory
  • 10 years since their last division title

This team has produced 2 Hall of Fame players over the past 3 decades. To say that this team has been irrelevant is somewhat of an understatement. It’s evident something needs to change.

This article isn’t to convince you that Ryan Tannehill is the answer. In fact, if you’ve come to the conclusion that Tannehill definitively isn’t the solution and the team needs someone new, I won’t blame you one bit. You’re not wrong. Like Bleacher Report said, after seven seasons, we really have no idea what we have in Tannehill. But this article will prepare you for the nightmare that lies ahead; the reality we face as we try to become a franchise we can be proud of once again.

Below are some things I’d like you to consider when taking into account Miami’s 2019 starting quarterback:

“Poor” Quarterback Class

According to every “expert’s” opinion, this is going to be a weak draft class. I’m sure come February we’re going to hype ourselves into believing that four quarterbacks should go in the first round, but remember back to this time when the aura around the quarterback draft class was disappointing.

The top two quarterbacks (Justin Herbert of Oregon and Dwayne Haskins of Ohio State) might not even declare for the draft, leaving NFL teams reaching desperately past a person’s true draft value to select one of the other “top” quarterbacks coming out.

With Miami likely scheduled to select somewhere in the late teens, they will either have to settle for giving up a treasure trove of draft picks to move up, or remain steady and select a quarterback that drops to them.

Teams have wised up since the mid-2000s, and a quarterback of Aaron Rodgers‘ caliber isn’t falling to Miami again. So instead, Miami has to give up extra lottery tickets and cheap roster spots in exchange for a prayer that your less-than-desired quarterback class strikes lightning in a bottle.

Are you fine passing on patching the defensive line, the linebacking unit, a second cornerback opposite Xavien Howard, or a wide receiver to compliment Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson, all for the chance of selecting what’s more likely to be the next Tim Tebow or Branden Weeden?

Although we have hindsight on our side, let’s take a look at the previous 10 draft classes and see how the quarterback selections panned out:

Click here for a larger image

Over the course of a decade, there are 10 quarterbacks that we would easily take over Ryan Tannehill, 8 who are on par with Tannehill (Deshaun Watson is the only one of that bunch that you can argue is definitively better, though I’m hesitant to say that right now with his limited sample size and annual injuries), and 57 that are clearly below him.

Out of all of those quarterbacks taken, how many teams traded up in the 1st-round (or into the 1st-round) to get their QB? 19

How many of those QBs would we take over Tannehill? Not counting the uncertainty of the 2018 draft class, 4.

Most of the trades that worked out ended up being quarterbacks taken within the first 5 picks of the draft. And even then, Mark Sanchez and Robert Griffin III were busts, so moving into the top-5 still isn’t a guarantee.

Miami is going to have to (over) commit to a quarterback that is genuinely one of the top-3 best prospects coming out of college, but they shouldn’t press to make someone a top-3 talent. And while there are still quarterbacks worthy of being selected outside of the top-5 (Patrick Mahomes at 10, Watson at 12, Joe Flacco at 18), the truth is, you need to identify a legitimate, elite talent at quarterback in order to convince yourself that it’s worth giving up extra assets to obtain them.

Over the past decade, there are only two quarterbacks selected outside of the top-5 that are definitively better than Tannehill: Russell Wilson (75th overall) and Patrick Mahomes (10th).

Though it’s not a given, if we were to make the assumption that this quarterback class is equivalent to one of the “weak” quarterback classes mentioned above (2008-2011, 2013-2015), Miami’s best option would be Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford or Cam Newton, who would all be desired, yet two went #1 overall and the other was the 3rd-overall pick (that should have also been #1 overall). Are you convinced Justin Herbert or Dwayne Haskins are any of these quarterbacks? Are they worth the cost of a franchise quarterback?

Seeing how 2019 isn’t the year to invest in a rookie quarterback, Miami might be interested in taking a chance on a potential free agent.

Expensive Agents

Are you willing to provide a riskier quarterback you know absolutely nothing about with a larger contract than what you’re giving Ryan Tannehill?

That’s the first compromise you have to pass if you’re going to go after a free agent quarterback.

With Kirk Cousins possibly setting a new precedence for quarterbacks after obtaining $84m fully guaranteed from the Minnesota Vikings, quarterback contracts are only going to get more expensive as each season passes.

Desperate teams take desperate chances, and teams are willing to pay less-than-stellar quarterbacks (with the most minute bit of potential) for the hope that they can bring their team out of the abyss of irrelevance.

  • Brock Osweiler: $72m, $37m guaranteed with the Houston Texans
  • Sam Bradford: $78m, $50m guaranteed with the St. Louis Rams after being drafted; $36m, $22m guaranteed with the Philadelphia Eagles; $20m, $15m guaranteed with the Arizona Cardinals
  • Matt Flynn: $20.5m, $9m guaranteed by the Seattle Seahawks

Are recent examples of quarterbacks that received a bunch of money due to the desperation of the teams signing them.

I’m not saying spending on a free agent quarterback is the wrong route to go; if you’ve identified an upgrade, you try and obtain it. But how many successful quarterbacks have hit free agency since 2010? Take a look at the quarterbacks who recently signed free agent contracts and look what they earned:

Click here for a larger image

I was going to abstain from color-coding this chart, as it was just going to be a sea of red, but figured I’d leave it in for visual effect.

Now, to be fair, most of these quarterbacks were signed with the intent to be a backup, and nothing more. And that’s fine, but Miami isn’t looking for a backup quarterback right now, they’re looking for an answer, and this chart lets you know just how many answers are out there on an annual basis.

Other than two Hall of Fame quarterbacks not moving anywhere (Peyton Manning in 2011 and Drew Brees in 2018) and then Manning’s unique case in 2012, there are only two quarterbacks whose signings worked out for the team: Alex Smith in 2012 and Kirk Cousins in 2016. You can argue Joe Flacco in 2013, but that contract was horrendous and he is not all that good to begin with.

Jimmy Garoppolo and Cousins’ recent contracts remain to be seen and are temporarily filled in yellow; though I have a feeling those have a better chance of being shaded red than they do green when we reflect back on this a few years from now.

Even now, I’m not all too convinced that Kirk Cousins is anything special. Cousins is a career 31-33-2 quarterback with a 116/60 TD/INT ratio. He took over for a team that Case Keenum led to a 13-3 record and the NFC Championship game, and he is currently 5-3-1. He might be the most successful quarterback on this list not named Manning or Brees, but it’s mostly by default. For comparisons sake, Tannehill is a career 40-42 quarterback with a 114/71 TD/INT ratio…or about the same as the quarterback currently making $28m annually.

Unless it’s a rare case like Drew Brees or Peyton Manning, when their previous team had a top-5 first-round pick waiting in the wings, teams don’t get rid of good quarterbacks.

So let’s take a look at our available options this year (including quarterbacks that are speculated to be released by their current teams):

I could list the Sam Bradford‘s, the Matt Barkley‘s and the Nathan Peterman‘s of the NFL, but we’re not dipping down that low. Plus, give me Nick Mullen (not really).

Above are your most realistic possibilities. How many of those quarterbacks would you confidently select to a larger contract than Ryan Tannehill’s AND confidently expect better results?

The only quarterback on that list that has a ceiling is Teddy Bridgewater, one of the most unknown commodities in this game right now. His hype will elevate him to a rich contract, similar to what hope accomplished for Sam Bradford throughout his career.

It’s quite possible Bridgewater is completely durable and there is zero injury risk, while Tannehill, once an iron-man is this sport, is deemed injury-prone. But Bridgewater’s first two seasons, the only seasons we really know, are on par (or worse) than Tannehill’s first two seasons. Is this similar to when a musician or athlete dies at a young age and we never witness their decline, forever immortalizing them as “stars” in our minds? We never got to see Bridgewater develop, so there’s hope that he can regain his franchise form. This is the biggest risk the Dolphins front office has to ask themselves, is Bridgewater the bridge to the future? The traits we wish Tannehill possessed are easily identified in Bridgewater. He has “it”. But outside of the 2018 preseason, where he looked good, what are we really investing $25m-per-season in?

Are you taking a flier on Eli Manning, an aging quarterback who has crumbled to a 5-19 record over the past two seasons while having better offensive weapons than the Dolphins?

Are we bringing in Jameis Winston‘s character flaws or Blake Bortles‘ inconsistency? Look at how badly he’s holding down a Super Bowl caliber defense in Jacksonville.

Convinced Tyrod Taylor deserves a shot after falling out of favor with his past two teams?

If your answer is Derek Carr, then I wonder why you would want to bring in a more expensive quarterback who has under-performed with a team that features better skill position players than the Dolphins as well as one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

You also have to consider how long you’re signing this quarterback for. Is this a long-term solution that you’re investing close to $100m in? Or is this a temporary solution until you find your next quarterback in the draft?

Chances are, you’re looking for a quick fix while impatiently waiting for the 2020 draft class to hit. In that case, how many quarterbacks are taking one-year deals and how many of them will accept that contract for anything significantly less than Tannehill’s $26.6m next season?

The quarterbacks that are taking prove-it contracts are going to be in the most precarious of situations and will essentially select anything. Which means say hello to Trevor Siemian.

No one is saying Tannehill’s $26.6m cap hit is ideal, but when compared to the other options out there, it doesn’t seem as daunting.

Contracts Guaranteed To Make You Cringe

This is where Miami bites itself in the ass.

Ryan Tannehill will cost $13.4m against the cap if he’s cut (along with $5.5m in 2020), while costing $26.6m if he’s on the roster.

Taking into account the $18m increase in Tannehill’s cap hit from 2018 to 2019 ($8.6m vs $26.6m), it’s not like their cap space will be too dire. Below is a quick summary of the players likely to be released (and what it’ll cost the team) as well as the likely pay raises coming up.

Yes, the players you release will need to be replaced, but losing Andre Branch, Robert Quinn and Danny Amendola isn’t too much of a downgrade. And while Kiko Alonso has had himself a “good” year, he is also a liability and can be replaced at a much cheaper rate.

One of the most intriguing questions going into 2019 will be the status of Kenny Stills. He is set to earn $9.75m if he’s on the roster, but only $3.5m in dead cap space if he’s released. Stills is a wonderful leader and has a tremendous work ethic, but I wonder if Miami approaches him with the possibility of a contract extension in mind. Lower the rate for the next two seasons while giving him more guaranteed money. It’s also possible Miami does this with some of their other players, giving them more space to play around with in free agency.

Miami’s recent draft history gives me confidence that they can find at least 2-3 impact players on rookie deals.

It’s also not too far fetched to assume the Dolphins are capable of cutting Tannehill’s contract loose and eating the money – given what they did to Ndamukong Suh this past offseason.

Suh and Tannehill are different people and different players who are impacting different positions.

We saw how miserable the Dolphins run game was with Suh in the middle of the defensive line. It was better than what it is currently (so is everyone else), so Suh has that going for him, but he wasn’t enough to elevate this team to the next level.

Whether you think Tannehill is a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback or not is one thing, but the production Tannehill provides is abundantly better than a quarterback making less than $20m a season. We can throw $10m at Jay Cutler, but that was obviously a waste, and would have made more sense for Miami to go with a 720k Brock Osweiler than a slightly better option at $10m.

How far do you want to downgrade for being cheap?

For a team that likely won’t (realistically) address the quarterback position until 2020, retaining Ryan Tannehill gives you a winning combination with Adam Gase for 2019, and allows you to retain your assets for 2020 – should a rookie quarterback not be immediately available this offseason.

Or, if you’re convinced, bundle your assets and select a quarterback this year in the draft while retaining Tannehill for one more season. Allow your rookie to learn and grow while also developing a potentially hot trade chip to help recover some of those lost assets.

Ryan Tannehill is essentially on a one-year contract (at $26.6m) for 2019, with a $5.5m dead cap hit in 2020 (if released). Rather than continue to pay players that aren’t on your team, retain the contract you unwisely extended during the 2018 offseason and finish out the Ryan Tannehill era with a concrete answer.

Next year is Ryan Tannehill’s “prove it” year. Miami isn’t going to extend him any further (unless he chooses an extremely reduced rate with the intent of obtaining more guaranteed money. Think 2-years, $40m), and are poised to pounce on the 2020 draft class.

How Much Fun is Ross Really Having With His Marionettes?

With every situation comes a caveat, and that caveat rests in the ambitious and perplexic mind of the team’s owner, Stephen Ross.

At this point, Ryan Tannehill’s status is entirely cemented to Adam Gase’s tenure. If Stephen Ross decides to make a move for one of the Harbaugh brothers, or another splash hire he identifies somewhere else, then you can bet the new regime will look to utilize all of the draft picks and cash they have to build their own brand.

We still have another 6 weeks to go, and if the team flutters miserably, it’s quite possible Ross removes Gase, Mike Tannenbaum and Chris Grier in a complete upheaval. Though if the team stays competitive and ends up with at least 7 wins, it’s likely Gase stays, which means it’s likely Tannehill stays.

Find someone who defends you the way Adam Gase defends Ryan Tannehill.

Fast-forward to the 6:23 mark when Gase is asked about Tannehill as the future quarterback of the team. Look at his body language the moment the reporter begins to ask the question. Listen to the tone of his voice as he’s giving his answer. That’s a passionate response. That’s a head coach who has conviction in who his starting quarterback should be. Adam Gase remaining as the head coach of the Miami Dolphins is a separate topic for another time, but as long as he is the head coach in 2019, Ryan Tannehill will be his starting quarterback.

I believe that Adam Gase needs to focus more on being a head coach and less of an offensive coordinator, but there’s no doubt that Gase believes he has one of the better quarterbacks in the league already on his roster. No one can argue that Tannehill has all of the intangibles (arm strength, accuracy, speed/agility), but everyone is aware that he doesn’t have the “killer instincts” that are expected to come at the position.

I will also buy the notion that you might be skeptical of Tannehill’s shoulder. While I do not believe this will affect him in 2019, if there is any chance he can miss time leading into August, the injury is not worth the hassle and this all is voided.

But, if he is declared healthy, I will discard the narrative that Tannehill is injury-prone. Unless we consider the large gash of an offensive line he’s had to play with throughout his entire entire career as an injury, I’m not sold. Prevent defensive linemen from collapsing on his knee at full force or tugging his arm backwards as he’s trying to fire a 60mph football over 40 yards (one week after another 275lbs+ defensive lineman drove him to the ground and landed full force on the same shoulder) and you’ll see a perfectly healthy quarterback.

Dolphins fan, Rick Morgan, has collected the jersey of every starting quarterback for the Miami Dolphins since Dan Marino.

Don’t let this fool you, I’m all for finding a new quarterback. I would love nothing more than to set this franchise on the right path to success rather than muddling in mediocrity. Miami has missed on its fair share of opportunities and it has haunted this franchise for years. I don’t need to tell you about Drew Brees x2 or Aaron Rodgers or even the pain of watching Alex Smith go to the Washington Redskins this past offseason for a 3rd-round pick (though who’s to say Kansas City would have traded him in-conference).

You don’t need to be reminded about A.J. Feeley or Joey Harrington, who are substantially better than John Beck, Cleo Lemon and Pat White. I mean, when Gus Frerotte rounds out your top-three quarterbacks this century (and Jay Cutler is #4), it’s kind of easy to be numb to it all.

There is a lot of pain and frustration pent up inside every Dolphins fan. It has been 45 years since the Dolphins were Super Bowl champions, and yet, we’re not even talking about how frustrated we are that this team hasn’t won the big game…we just want to win a playoff game first.

This franchise needs a new course. Whether that’s a new coach, new general manager, new quarterback or new owner, it needs a change. It’s evident that the fanbase has become disgustingly tired of mediocrity, and wants the team to lead us down a path that’s more promising than the uncertainty another year of Ryan Tannehill brings.

There’s an entire generation of Dolphins fans that hasn’t witnessed success. Two decades worth of NFL seasons, and, frankly, your life, wasted on watching an average product. It’s time to take that next step. Just be bold…not stupid.

Growing up a passionate Dolphins fan in Jets territory, Jason learned from an early age that life as a Dolphins fan wasn’t going to be easy. Previously the Sports Editor for his university newspaper, Jason has experience writing columns, creating game recaps and conducting interviews with Hall of Fame athletes (Harry Carson and Yogi Berra are two of his proudest interviews). When he’s not dissecting the latest sports news, you can find him perplexed over the Dolphins offensive line woes or involuntarily introducing music to his neighbors.

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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. marchcool

    November 19, 2018 at 11:41 am

    Ross should fire himself.
    He’s the genesis of this mediocre franchise. His pathetic front office is just the mirror of himself. Bad decision after bad decision. Tannehill is a hardworker QB, it is not his fault having a terrible OL during most of his tenure and terrible and pusilanimous coaches around him.

  2. Eric Redding

    November 19, 2018 at 1:16 pm

    Tannehill has accuracy and is not injury prone? Lmaooo Otherwise, nice work. We will suck again next year.

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Miami Dolphins

Dolphins vs Vikings Reaction

Jason Hrina

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Image Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Kevin Stefanski coached his first game as the Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator and he may have orchestrated the last game of Matt Burke‘s tenure as the Miami Dolphins defensive coordinator.

Maybe the miracle wiped the emotion out of everyone.

I’d say an illegal touching penalty on Brice Butler on the team’s 2nd possession was an omen that this game wasn’t going to go well. It may have been Matt Haack‘s punt from the Viking’s 45 yard line that ended up bouncing into the end zone that made for a perfect metaphor. Nope, it was most-definitely the 4th-down stop the Minnesota Vikings made when Ja’Wuan James virtually tackles Ryan Tannehill for a comical sack that summarizes this team’s performance today – and quite possibly, their 2018 season as a whole.

After sucking us back into the season in dramatic fashion last week against the New England Patriots, the Dolphins reminded us why they’re far from a playoff team with a lackluster performance on the road against the Minnesota Vikings.

We knew going into Minnesota would be tough, but we didn’t expect it to be embarrassing; though maybe we should have. The Dolphins are now 1-6 in road games this season – a consistent stain on Adam Gase‘s resume.

The good news? This was the only game Miami could afford to lose the rest of the season and still have a realistic chance at the playoffs. The bad news? Everyone else in the playoff picture (Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens) won.

Miami is going to need a lot of help if they want to make the playoffs, but it starts with consecutive victories against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills.

Below are a few things we noticed from Miami’s 41 – 17 loss to the Vikings:

1) Drain the Defense

This actually might start with the front office. Look at how Miami spent its cap space this season:

(team rank / player / cap hit)
1) Robert Quinn – $11.44m
2) Andre Branch – $10m
4) Kiko Alonso – $9.66m
5) Cameron Wake – $9.62m
9) Reshad Jones – $4.96m

The Dolphins gave up a 4th-round draft pick for their costliest player. They prematurely extended their second-most expensive player after he recorded 5.5 sacks and the team was desperate for defensive ends (they selected Charles Harris in the first round that following draft). Miami did the same with Kiko Alonso that same offseason (though it’s hard to complain about him after watching the rest of this defense). And the bottom two players on the above list are legends on a franchise that doesn’t make the playoffs.

This team was hit with a bunch of injuries, but we need to stop leaning on that excuse. There are no longer excuses as for why the Minnesota Vikings accumulated 101 rushing yards…in the first quarter. The team’s depth has been terribly exposed, and Matt Burke has not been able to adjust to the team’s most-glaring weakness.

Dalvin Cook came into this game averaging 45.9 yards per game and Latavius Murray came into this game averaging 36.2 yards per game. Cook finished with 136 yards and 2 touchdowns while Murray rushed for 68 yards and a touchdown of his own.

Although Robert Quinn added another (shoestring) sack to his total, he was noticeably getting wiped out of the play on the first two rushing touchdowns by the Vikings. Bobby McCain may have been watching too many replays of Rob Gronkowski last week during the Miami Miracle, because his angle on Cook’s first touchdown run was atrocious.

McCain wasn’t to be outdone, however, as Latavius Murray’s touchdown run in the first quarter came with a nice little stiff arm to Bobby McCain’s helmet – leading to a physical lapse by the cornerback compared to the mental lapse on the previous touchdown run.

We can excuse the few shortcomings Minkah Fitzpatrick has each week. Not only is he a rookie, but he’s being tasked with understanding every position in the secondary. McCain was at his natural inside corner position on those touchdown runs and was a detriment rather than the luxury that earned a contract extension this past offseason. In fairness to McCain, he did have a better second half, but after the Vikings had scored 21 points in the first quarter, it’s hard to compliment a player that put the team in such a tight bind.

Each time Fitzpatrick allows a reception I look at the play negatively. And yet, these are receptions that are going for maybe 8-13 yards at a time, not the 40-yard bombs that blow up an entire game plan.

The Derwin James vs Minkah Fitzpatrick debate is going to follow them their entire careers, but the biggest reason people have for selecting James over Fitzpatrick (as the better draft pick) is because the Los Angeles Chargers safety ‘makes big plays’. Fitzpatrick showed he can be equally as impressive when he read a Kirk Cousin‘s screen pass beautifully and took it to the house for a touchdown.

Maybe Minnesota understood how to expose Miami’s defense better than Bill Belichick, but it was evident the Dolphins missed Xavien Howard. Kirk Cousins completed just 2/3 of his passes, and only threw for 215 yards, but he didn’t really need much help from Adam Thielen or Stephon Diggs (even though they had plenty of open space to work with). Cousins completed 2 passes apiece to Tyler Conklin and Aldrick Robinson, but those 4 completions averaged 24.25 yards per play.

Outside of Fitzpatrick’s pick-6, this defense didn’t have too many bright spots. T.J. McDonald was exposed in coverage and Torry McTyer was beat on a long touchdown to Robinson. This defense has valuable core pieces, but it also needs an overhaul.

And it’s going to start with the defensive coordinator.

2) A Fireable Offense

Which stat would you like to pull out of this game that exemplifies Miami’s mediocrity?

  • 37 total passing yards (that’s not a misprint)
  • 11 passes completed
  • 193 total yards on offense
  • 2/12 3rd-down efficiency
  • 9 sacks allowed

That’s 2 more completed passes than sacks for those counting at home.

This doesn’t take into account two pass plays that Ryan Tannehill forced and Miami’s wide receivers needed to bat down. This doesn’t point out the fact that they gained some of these yards in garbage time.

One week after everyone was ready to anoint Tannehill the 2019 opening day starter, fans are back to clamoring for the top quarterback prospect in the draft – whoever it may be. They just need fresh blood.

Erase the 75-yard touchdown run Kalen Ballage had and this offense mustered 118 yards the entire game. That would have been 29.5 yards per quarter! A lot of the problems have to do with the offensive line, but we also have to recognize that a lot of offensive issues today stemmed from the Dolphins receivers.

The normally sure-handed Danny Amendola dropped two passes and also juggled a punt return late in the game. DeVante Parker was nonexistent (1 target). Kenny Stills caught one reception in garbage time. Brice Butler’s biggest play was negated because he stepped out of bounds and received an illegal touching penalty. Mike Gesicki caught a couple of passes, but makes no impact whatsoever on offense.

The team’s shiftiest running back (Kenyan Drake) is nursing an injury and was sparingly used while the team’s most reliable running back (Frank Gore) left the game in the first quarter with a foot sprain. A lot can be said for the poor quarterback performance today, but we also need to point out the collective failure of an offensive unit.

Similar to the defense, the issue might start with the front office. This is how the rest of the top-10 most expensive players rounds out for Miami:

(team rank / player / cap hit)
3) Kenny Stills – $9.75m
6) Ja’Wuan James – $9.34m
7) Ryan Tannehill – $8.68m
8) Danny Amendola – $6m
10) DeVante Parker – $3.46m

That’s a lot of average to non-existent production from Miami’s top-10 cap hits this season.

While quarterback will be the most-discussed topic this offseason, look for the Dolphins to overhaul their tight ends (once again) and their wide receivers, as it’s possible none of Miami’s receivers in 2019 were active for this game. There’s a good chance the only returning wide receivers from this year’s roster are Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant, both of whom have serious injuries that they might not be able to come back from.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Gore. Miami desperately needs to win these next two games, and if Gore is unable to perform near 100%, he may be the latest casualty to land on injured-reserve.

With Brandon Bolden and Kalen Ballage having good games for Miami, it’s possible they run with their current trio (with Senorise Perry as insurance) rather than risk an unhealthy Frank Gore.

If this happens to be the case, and Gore does indeed land on IR, it’ll be a disappointing way to see the running back’s season end. Gore had accumulated 722 rushing yards on the season (including this game against Minnesota) and was Miami’s most-durable and reliable option at running back all year. Though it may be hard to find space for him, signing Frank Gore near the veteran’s minimum would be a priority of mine next offseason.

The Dolphins look to play with our hearts again next week as they host the disappointing Jaguars in Miami.

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Miami Dolphins

Charting Ryan Tannehill 2018 – Week 13 vs Buffalo

Travis Wingfield

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Go to Week 1 vs. Tennessee
Go to Week 2 at NY Jets
Go to Week 3 vs. Oakland
Go to week 4 at New England
Go to week 5 at Cincinnati
Go to week 12 at Indianapolis

Week 13 vs. Buffalo –

In his second game back from a shoulder injury that was rumored to end his season, Ryan Tannehill stayed in familiar territory. A few big-time throws, a few more mistakes, and yet another divisive performance.

The fastball deteriorated as the game grew older, he struggled with some touch passes, and missed a few reads, but two touchdowns where he displayed cajones grande was enough to push the Dolphins back into the winner’s circle.

Without Danny Amendola, the personnel packages didn’t fluctuate from the week prior in Indianapolis. Adam Gase deployed primarily 11-personnel and a lot of shotgun. Tannehill was in the gun on 22 of his 28 drop backs.

 

11-personnel 24 snaps
12-personnel 2 snaps
13-personnel 1 snap
21-personnel 1 snap

 

Moving the chains was a struggle regardless of the down-and-distance. Miami moved the sticks on 10 of the 28 plays called for Tannehill, and he was just 2/8 on third downs.

Yards-after-the-catch were missing from the Miami offense. Only 25.5% of Tannehill’s mere 137-passing yards came after the reception. Despite the lingering shoulder issue, Tannehill still averaged 9.38 air-yards-per-throw.

 

Portion of the Field Accurate Pass/Number of Passes
20+ yards 0/4 (0%)
11-19 yards 3/3 (100%)
0-10 yards (or behind LOS) 13/17 (77%)

 

Tannehill was sharp in the red zone completing 5/6 passes – three for touchdowns and two moving the chains on third down.

Two of the touchdowns were threaded into tight windows – Tannehill was on-point in that area as well. He completed 5/10 passes for 63 yards with the two touchdowns and one interception.

It wasn’t a clean game for Tanenhill – far from it. He was charged with four off-target throws, four missed reads and two critical errors (an INT and a missed TD opportunity).

Pressure, as it has been most of his career, was arriving with regularity. On Tannehill’s 28 drop backs, the rush got home 13 times (4 sacks, 8 hits, 1 hurry) at an average of 2.18 seconds from snap-to-pressure.

Play-action, once again, was Tannehill’s bread and butter. He did throw the interception on a double-move-deep-shot to Kenny Stills, but he completed the other four for 41 yards.

The critical errors, missed reads and overall lack of production shrouds this showing with a dark cloud. The two big-time red zone strikes, however, and the clean operation of threading tight windows is enough to push this effort into the upper-echelon of a “winning performance.”

Result: Winning Performance

 

2018 Performance Results Number of Games
Winning Performance 4 (TEN, OAK, IND, BUF)
Inconsequential Performance 1 (@NYJ)
Losing Performance 2 (@NE, @CIN)

 

@WingfieldNFL

Additional videos:

Tannehill appears to be apprehensive on the whee route to the back

Tannehill continues to struggle with the wheel route

Body position opens the read Tannehill wants.

Has a shot at a deep ball, but take the sure first down.

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Miami Dolphins

Week 15: Rooting Guide and Staff Predictions

Gabe Hauari

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Week 14 proved to be one of the most memorable in Dolphins history, as the “Miami Miracle” propelled the Dolphins to a dramatic victory over New England.

As memorable as it was, the only other favorable result around the league was the Ravens losing to Kansas City, as the Colts and Titans also kept themselves in playoff contention by notching wins.

Week 15 is a critical week for much of the NFL, as many teams are still alive in their respective playoff races. In the AFC specifically, there are five teams vying for the final two playoff spots. Who should you root for in these matchups? Here are the games to keep an eye on, with the team Miami should root for in bold for emphasis.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m. EST

John Harbaugh announced Lamar Jackson will start over a healthy Joe Flacco on Sunday, which means this could be the official passing-of-the-torch moment for the Ravens (7-6). Tampa Bay is still mathematically in the NFC playoff race at 5-8, but facing a focused Ravens team at home is a tall order.

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m. EST

The Cowboys are coming off an intense divisional win over the Eagles, and the Colts (7-6) are hot after a huge win over the Texans. The Dolphins would benefit greatly if the Cowboys came away from Lucas Oil Stadium with a victory, dropping the Colts to 7-7. The Cowboys could control their own destiny by winning the NFC East, something they are in prime position to do.

Tennessee Titans at New York Giants, 1 p.m. EST

This is a potential trap game for the Titans (7-6), as the Giants have improved steadily as the season has gone on. Even without Odell Beckham Jr., the Giants can win with a good running game and just enough defense. The Titans are coming off an impressive win over the Jaguars and will also likely try to establish their running game early.  This one could go either way, but let’s hope the Giants find a way to win this one.

 

Miami has a tough game this week, as playing in Minnesota is no walk in the park. The Vikings fired offensive coordinator John DeFilippo this week after an ugly performance on Monday night vs. Seattle, which could benefit the Dolphins. How will the game turn out? Our staff takes a shot at predicting it:

Will Rogers:

After the Miami Miracle I, like many Dolphins fans, am still somewhat on a high. That high has me feeling that the Dolphins can do no wrong but I know I cannot be that naive.

When the Dolphins play the Vikings in Minnesota it’s going to be a true test for the Dolphins defense. It’s looking like Xavien Howard will not play so the guys next in line really need to step up to stop the powerful Vikings offensive weapons. 

This matchup could go either way but like I said I’m riding that high. I believe that the Dolphins can win this one and the taste of the playoffs will become sweeter. 

Prediction: Dolphins 28, Vikings 24

Skyler Trunck:

Since Tannehill has returned, this offensive is firing on almost all cylinders averaging the 8th most points per game in that span. However, this will be the best defense this offense has seen in that span. Add in the offense averaging nearly 8 points less on the road this season, it’s hard to feel great about this matchup.

Minnesota is currently ranked 5th in yards allowed and 11th in points allowed. When you watch this team and look at them on paper, the talent on this defense certainly illustrates these ranks are no fluke.

The reason Minnesota isn’t winning as much as last year is due to their offense, and more so their offensive inconsistencies. Like Miami, Minnesota fans know all too well what it’s like to have a sub-par (at best) offensive line and the effects it has on an offense.

In attempt to salvage their offense, Minnesota fired their supposedly up-and-coming offensive coordinator, John DeFilippo, this last week.

It’s easy to think Miami won’t score many points in this matchup given their success on the road and against a defense this stout. What is difficult to predict in this matchup is how this Miami defense will hold. Minnesota running back, Dalvin Cook, has been scripted out of most games, which is odd considering he’ll be one of the more talented backs Miami sees this year. If Minnesota’s new offensive coordinator features a heavy run attack, it may be hard for Miami to stay in this game.

I have hard time going against what I’ve seen all year from this Miami Dolphins team, especially with the absence of Xavien Howard for another week. 

Prediction: Vikings 20, Dolphins 17

Andrew Mitchell:

Coming off last weeks Miami Miracle game has spirits and confidence high. Which immediately worries me because we know how this can go sometimes. 

Ryan Tannehill has looked stellar in his return and the play-calling has been much improved as well. While the offense has seemed to find their groove, they still are not as dominant as needed to offset our shaky defense.

However, the defense has been playing the best it has all season and that trend MUST continue as they head to Minnesota.

The Vikings have been underwhelming this season after signing Kirk Cousins in the offseason. They just recently fired John DeFilippo, the highly regarded OC they snagged from the Eagles in the offseason. 

Unfortunately, this isn’t what Miami wants, if only they had kept him for one more week.

Given our defensive performances on the road and an offense looking to get on the right track, I can’t help but feel Miami falls short this week. I hope I’m wrong.

Prediction: Vikings 31, Dolphins 23

Gabe Hauari:

The Dolphins got the kind of emotional win that can turn a whole season around vs. the Patriots last Sunday. The “Miami Miracle” is a play that will go down in NFL history, and could possibly propel the Dolphins into the playoffs if they handle their business the last three weeks of the season.

However….

The Dolphins have been pretty bad on the road this season, and unfortunately I don’t see that stopping this week, especially not without Xavien Howard. The Vikings have a deep stable of receivers, and that matchup really worries me.

The Dolphins can win if they run the ball well and control the clock, and defensively they must get pressure on Kirk Cousins.

After a stinker on the road last week, the Vikings will also be motivated to play well in front of their home crowd, with a new offensive coordinator, with their playoff dreams potentially on the line.

Miami keeps it close, but I think Minnesota wins it late.

Prediction: Vikings 24, Dolphins 21

Travis Wingfield:

To see Travis’ analysis and predictions, click here: https://www.lockedondolphins.com/dolphins/dolphins-at-vikings-week-15-preview/

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